# HF Sinclair (DINO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DINO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:01.448Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $124.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $81.15 per share, central $91.10 per share, high $104.35 per share. Buy at or below the central value $91.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:01.448Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.95×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: -0.07×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 10.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 10.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 5.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.2%

- FY2017: 18.1%

- FY2018: 25.3%

- FY2019: 16.8%

- FY2020: -11.5%

- FY2021: 9.4%

- FY2022: 37.6%

- FY2023: 19.3%

- FY2024: 2.6%

- FY2025: 8.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.23×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.05×

- FY2023: 1.24×

- FY2024: 3.05×

- FY2025: 1.79×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 18.1% vs 8.9%

- Per-share earnings: 3.92 to 3.17 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Market cap gain: $2.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -2.6%

- Per-share value change: -$0.75

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.92

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.17

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.37

- Average buyback yield: 5.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 18.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.48

- FY2017: $4.55

- FY2018: $6.22

- FY2019: $4.61

- FY2020: -$3.71

- FY2021: $3.43

- FY2022: $14.65

- FY2023: $8.50

- FY2024: $0.92

- FY2025: $3.17

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.27×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.36×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.1%

- FY2017: -1.4%

- FY2018: -4.2%

- FY2019: -6.4%

- FY2020: -9.2%

- FY2021: 1.2%

- FY2022: -4.7%

- FY2023: -4.0%

- FY2024: -5.6%

- FY2025: -4.4%

## Holders

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.2% a year for ten years · "Distillate Deficit: How DINO is Positioned to Profit From Strong Margins" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:38.340Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: HF Sinclair beats second-quarter profit estimates on higher refining margins ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hf-sinclair-beats-secondquarter-profit-estimates-4162288))

- 2025-11-24: Distillate Deficit: How DINO is Positioned to Profit From Strong Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/distillate-deficit-dino-positioned-profit-152300101.html))

- 2026-07-29: HF Sinclair (DINO) After Earnings Jump And Spinoff Plan Looks Fully Valued ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hf-sinclair-dino-earnings-jump-120704894.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48039/000004803922000014/hfc-20211231.htm; observed 2022-02-23.

- FY2017: $14B 

- FY2018: $18B 

- FY2019: $17B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $18B 

- FY2022: $38B 

- FY2023: $32B 

- FY2024: $29B 

- FY2025: $27B 

- FY2026: $28B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 5.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48039/000004803922000014/hfc-20211231.htm; observed 2022-02-23.

- FY2016: 16.1% 

- FY2017: 17.4% 

- FY2018: 18.1% 

- FY2019: 13.1% 

- FY2020: 5.8% 

- FY2021: 14.3% 

- FY2022: 17.8% 

- FY2023: 16.1% 

- FY2024: 11.2% 

- FY2025: 5.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas refining & marketing; annual sales are USD 26.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2025: revenue 26869000000; grossProfit 1392000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DINO.US: HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others. It also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, as well as markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, the company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, as well as provision of other marketing activities. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. Additionally, it offers hydrocarbon chemicals, including white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company also exports its products. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 5.2% to 16.1% during 2023–25; it earns 13.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 5.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.021556911171399455],[2017,0.1809776754429873],[2018,0.25273903558622646],[2019,0.16834513463674258],[2020,-0.11506506909478537],[2021,0.0940914913905718],[2022,0.37643758573013697],[2023,0.19336663020303604],[2024,0.025618511220101337],[2025,0.08857109638414137]]; median 0.1312183130136572. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 354 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 272259000; owner earnings 943073000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 311029000; owner earnings 1224255000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 293763000; owner earnings 988550000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48039/000004803922000014/hfc-20211231.htm (filed 2022-02-23); FY2021: growth capex 309870000; upkeep 503539000; owner earnings 558324000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.555000322393449.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 524007000; owner earnings 3055448000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 385413000; owner earnings 1974826000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 470000000; owner earnings 539000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 449000000; owner earnings 1039000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,234004000],[2017,235508000],[2018,233544000],[2019,225170000],[2020,229493000],[2021,57663000],[2022,255928000],[2023,340736000],[2024,386000000],[2025,376000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 354000000 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.061411514365018044. Price 124.7; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.1705144490314385 → FY2025 5.682719391801351. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $24.95 per share

- 2016-11: $28.77 per share

- 2016-12: $32.76 per share

- 2017-01: $28.97 per share

- 2017-02: $29.28 per share

- 2017-03: $28.34 per share

- 2017-04: $28.14 per share

- 2017-05: $23.90 per share

- 2017-06: $27.47 per share

- 2017-07: $28.84 per share

- 2017-08: $31.31 per share

- 2017-09: $35.97 per share

- 2017-10: $36.95 per share

- 2017-11: $44.48 per share

- 2017-12: $51.22 per share

- 2018-01: $47.96 per share

- 2018-02: $42.83 per share

- 2018-03: $48.86 per share

- 2018-04: $60.69 per share

- 2018-05: $77.18 per share

- 2018-06: $68.43 per share

- 2018-07: $74.58 per share

- 2018-08: $74.52 per share

- 2018-09: $69.90 per share

- 2018-10: $67.44 per share

- 2018-11: $62.47 per share

- 2018-12: $51.12 per share

- 2019-01: $56.34 per share

- 2019-02: $51.20 per share

- 2019-03: $49.27 per share

- 2019-04: $47.73 per share

- 2019-05: $37.98 per share

- 2019-06: $46.28 per share

- 2019-07: $49.77 per share

- 2019-08: $44.36 per share

- 2019-09: $53.64 per share

- 2019-10: $54.94 per share

- 2019-11: $51.55 per share

- 2019-12: $50.71 per share

- 2020-01: $44.92 per share

- 2020-02: $33.68 per share

- 2020-03: $24.51 per share

- 2020-04: $33.04 per share

- 2020-05: $31.45 per share

- 2020-06: $29.20 per share

- 2020-07: $27.50 per share

- 2020-08: $23.87 per share

- 2020-09: $19.71 per share

- 2020-10: $18.51 per share

- 2020-11: $23.39 per share

- 2020-12: $25.85 per share

- 2021-01: $28.46 per share

- 2021-02: $37.88 per share

- 2021-03: $35.78 per share

- 2021-04: $35.00 per share

- 2021-05: $32.47 per share

- 2021-06: $32.90 per share

- 2021-07: $29.40 per share

- 2021-08: $32.33 per share

- 2021-09: $33.13 per share

- 2021-10: $33.80 per share

- 2021-11: $32.32 per share

- 2021-12: $32.78 per share

- 2022-01: $35.16 per share

- 2022-02: $30.45 per share

- 2022-03: $39.85 per share

- 2022-04: $38.02 per share

- 2022-05: $49.10 per share

- 2022-06: $45.16 per share

- 2022-07: $47.82 per share

- 2022-08: $52.63 per share

- 2022-09: $53.84 per share

- 2022-10: $61.17 per share

- 2022-11: $62.34 per share

- 2022-12: $51.89 per share

- 2023-01: $56.90 per share

- 2023-02: $49.72 per share

- 2023-03: $48.38 per share

- 2023-04: $44.11 per share

- 2023-05: $41.44 per share

- 2023-06: $44.61 per share

- 2023-07: $52.09 per share

- 2023-08: $55.09 per share

- 2023-09: $56.93 per share

- 2023-10: $55.38 per share

- 2023-11: $52.48 per share

- 2023-12: $55.57 per share

- 2024-01: $56.49 per share

- 2024-02: $55.50 per share

- 2024-03: $60.37 per share

- 2024-04: $54.25 per share

- 2024-05: $55.23 per share

- 2024-06: $53.34 per share

- 2024-07: $51.47 per share

- 2024-08: $49.14 per share

- 2024-09: $44.57 per share

- 2024-10: $38.61 per share

- 2024-11: $40.93 per share

- 2024-12: $35.05 per share

- 2025-01: $36.08 per share

- 2025-02: $35.27 per share

- 2025-03: $32.88 per share

- 2025-04: $30.07 per share

- 2025-05: $36.13 per share

- 2025-06: $41.08 per share

- 2025-07: $43.94 per share

- 2025-08: $50.88 per share

- 2025-09: $52.34 per share

- 2025-10: $51.60 per share

- 2025-11: $52.91 per share

- 2025-12: $46.08 per share

- 2026-01: $51.99 per share

- 2026-02: $50.01 per share

- 2026-03: $62.39 per share

- 2026-04: $67.21 per share

- 2026-05: $69.89 per share

- 2026-06: $69.65 per share

- 2026-07: $91.47 per share

- 2026-08: $101.61 per share

- 2026-09: $107.32 per share

- 2026-10: $124.70 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $24.89 per share, central $27.68 per share, high $31.40 per share

- FY2017: low $29.18 per share, central $32.94 per share, high $37.94 per share

- FY2018: low $42.61 per share, central $53.39 per share, high $61.63 per share

- FY2019: low $78.99 per share, central $105.21 per share, high $122.70 per share

- FY2020: low $49.73 per share, central $55.61 per share, high $63.44 per share

- FY2021: low $69.90 per share, central $79.53 per share, high $92.36 per share

- FY2022: low $143.62 per share, central $191.96 per share, high $224.10 per share

- FY2023: low $123.80 per share, central $159.90 per share, high $186.35 per share

- FY2024: low $50.57 per share, central $57.38 per share, high $66.44 per share

- FY2025: low $64.52 per share, central $73.09 per share, high $84.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48039/000004803922000014/hfc-20211231.htm); period 2021-12-31, filed 2022-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.