# Walt Disney (DIS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DIS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:02.082Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $110.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $36.52 per share, central $43.72 per share, high $50.63 per share. Buy at or below the central value $43.72 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:02.082Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.15×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 30.5%

- FY2017: 30.2%

- FY2018: 38.5%

- FY2019: 18.5%

- FY2020: 4.9%

- FY2021: 6.9%

- FY2022: 7.9%

- FY2023: 10.9%

- FY2024: 12.8%

- FY2025: 18.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $26B

- Net income, five-year total: $25B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 474.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.77×

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 1.12×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.89×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 30.5% vs 12.8%

- Per-share earnings: 5.69 to 2.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: $62B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$12B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -8.8%

- Per-share value change: -$2.98

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.72

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $69B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $64B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.86

- FY2017: $5.69

- FY2018: $8.36

- FY2019: $6.64

- FY2020: -$1.58

- FY2021: $1.09

- FY2022: $1.72

- FY2023: $1.29

- FY2024: $2.72

- FY2025: $6.85

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.46×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.75×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.2%

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: -1.7%

- FY2019: 2.3%

- FY2020: -5.2%

- FY2021: -1.8%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: -3.7%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -2.9%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 35% since Oct 2021 · "Disney's Sports Segment Faces Rising Costs: Is Growth Sustainable?" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +3.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:38.490Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-07: Disney Beats Estimates, Boosts Profit Forecast on Parks, Streaming ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/disney-beats-estimates-boosts-profit-122609247.html))

- 2025-06-26: Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) Expands Hulu Access in New Charter Communications Deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walt-disney-nyse-dis-expands-173741938.html))

- 2025-12-11: Walt Disney stock rises after OpenAI partnership for $1 billion Sora deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walt-disney-stock-rises-openai-143847812.html))

- 2026-03-30: Disney (DIS) Faces Setbacks in Epic Games and OpenAI Partnerships ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/disney-dis-faces-setbacks-epic-164637865.html))

- 2026-04-14: Disney's Sports Segment Faces Rising Costs: Is Growth Sustainable? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/disneys-sports-segment-faces-rising-143900799.html))

- 2026-08-05: Disney beats Q3 estimates as streaming profit doubles ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/disney-beats-q3-estimates-streaming-141500551.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm; observed 2025-11-13.

- FY2016: $56B 

- FY2017: $55B 

- FY2018: $59B 

- FY2019: $70B 

- FY2020: $65B 

- FY2021: $67B 

- FY2022: $83B 

- FY2023: $89B 

- FY2024: $91B 

- FY2025: $94B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 37.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm; observed 2025-11-13.

- FY2016: 46.1% 

- FY2017: 45.0% 

- FY2018: 44.9% 

- FY2019: 39.6% 

- FY2020: 32.9% 

- FY2021: 33.1% 

- FY2022: 34.2% 

- FY2023: 33.4% 

- FY2024: 35.8% 

- FY2025: 37.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in entertainment; annual sales are USD 94.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm (filed 2025-11-13); FY2025: revenue 94425000000; grossProfit 35659000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DIS.US: The Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company in Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in three segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The company produces and distributes film and television content under the ABC Television Network, Disney, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brand television channels, as well as ABC television stations and A+E television networks; and produces original content under the Disney Branded Television, FX Productions, Lucasfilm, Marvel, National Geographic Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, 20th Television, and Walt Disney Pictures banners. It also provides direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, and Hulu; sports-related video streaming content through ESPN, ESPN on ABC, ESPN+ DTC, and Star; sale/licensing of film and episodic content to television and video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; DVD and Blu-ray discs, electronic home video licenses, and VOD rental services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort, Disneyland Resort, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, Shanghai Disney Resort, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney, as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii. Further, it licenses its intellectual property (IP) to a third party that owns and operates Tokyo Disney Resort; licenses trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games; operates a direct-to-home satellite distribution platform; sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.4% to 37.8% during 2023–25; it earns 15.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 33.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm (filed 2025-11-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3048262075277434],[2017,0.3024015447343088],[2018,0.3845333088937655],[2019,0.18461654348558162],[2020,0.049290553874490196],[2021,0.06857599989878282],[2022,0.07880418762352667],[2023,0.10889064561265385],[2024,0.12819358835069666],[2025,0.1812772761228261]]; median 0.1547354322367614. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 34% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm (filed 2025-11-13); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3305793704945267],[2022,0.3423635792171369],[2023,0.33405700915656145]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 11.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2016: growth capex 1555133874.0173512; upkeep 3217866125.982649; owner earnings 8700133874.017351. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17874826945614075.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3623000000; owner earnings 8139000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2018: growth capex 1454000000; upkeep 3011000000; owner earnings 12598000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11541514526115257.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2019: growth capex 709000000; upkeep 4167000000; owner earnings 11054000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06413967794463543.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3578000000; owner earnings 3528000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 4943000000; owner earnings 3365000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 4969000000; owner earnings 2631758112.094395. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); FY2024: growth capex 422000000; upkeep 4990000000; owner earnings 4972000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08487530168946097.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm (filed 2025-11-13); FY2025: growth capex 1302461601.9297562; upkeep 6721538398.070244; owner earnings 11008461601.929756. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11831458827102943.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); Incremental return on capital 4.743115942028986, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,2313000000],[2017,2445000000],[2018,2515000000],[2019,2895000000],[2020,1587000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,1366000000],[2025,1803000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm (filed 2025-11-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 3500000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DIS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.064 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Labor disputes disrupt our operations and adversely affect the profitability of our businesses." (SEC filing, Nov 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm (filed 2025-11-13); Labor disputes disrupt our operations and adversely affect the profitability of our businesses.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.19588813977005903. Price 110.68; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.950238856873136 → FY2025 6.078664606256077. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $92.69 per share

- 2016-11: $99.12 per share

- 2016-12: $104.22 per share

- 2017-01: $110.65 per share

- 2017-02: $110.09 per share

- 2017-03: $113.39 per share

- 2017-04: $115.60 per share

- 2017-05: $107.94 per share

- 2017-06: $106.25 per share

- 2017-07: $109.93 per share

- 2017-08: $101.20 per share

- 2017-09: $98.57 per share

- 2017-10: $97.81 per share

- 2017-11: $104.82 per share

- 2017-12: $107.51 per share

- 2018-01: $108.67 per share

- 2018-02: $103.16 per share

- 2018-03: $100.44 per share

- 2018-04: $100.33 per share

- 2018-05: $99.47 per share

- 2018-06: $104.81 per share

- 2018-07: $113.56 per share

- 2018-08: $112.02 per share

- 2018-09: $116.94 per share

- 2018-10: $114.83 per share

- 2018-11: $115.49 per share

- 2018-12: $109.65 per share

- 2019-01: $111.52 per share

- 2019-02: $112.84 per share

- 2019-03: $111.03 per share

- 2019-04: $136.97 per share

- 2019-05: $132.04 per share

- 2019-06: $139.64 per share

- 2019-07: $143.01 per share

- 2019-08: $137.26 per share

- 2019-09: $130.32 per share

- 2019-10: $129.92 per share

- 2019-11: $151.58 per share

- 2019-12: $144.63 per share

- 2020-01: $138.31 per share

- 2020-02: $117.65 per share

- 2020-03: $96.60 per share

- 2020-04: $108.15 per share

- 2020-05: $117.30 per share

- 2020-06: $111.51 per share

- 2020-07: $116.94 per share

- 2020-08: $131.87 per share

- 2020-09: $124.08 per share

- 2020-10: $121.25 per share

- 2020-11: $148.01 per share

- 2020-12: $181.18 per share

- 2021-01: $168.17 per share

- 2021-02: $189.04 per share

- 2021-03: $184.52 per share

- 2021-04: $186.02 per share

- 2021-05: $178.65 per share

- 2021-06: $175.77 per share

- 2021-07: $176.02 per share

- 2021-08: $181.30 per share

- 2021-09: $169.17 per share

- 2021-10: $169.07 per share

- 2021-11: $144.90 per share

- 2021-12: $154.89 per share

- 2022-01: $142.97 per share

- 2022-02: $148.46 per share

- 2022-03: $137.16 per share

- 2022-04: $111.63 per share

- 2022-05: $110.44 per share

- 2022-06: $94.40 per share

- 2022-07: $106.10 per share

- 2022-08: $112.08 per share

- 2022-09: $94.33 per share

- 2022-10: $106.54 per share

- 2022-11: $97.87 per share

- 2022-12: $86.88 per share

- 2023-01: $108.49 per share

- 2023-02: $99.61 per share

- 2023-03: $100.13 per share

- 2023-04: $102.50 per share

- 2023-05: $87.96 per share

- 2023-06: $89.28 per share

- 2023-07: $88.89 per share

- 2023-08: $83.68 per share

- 2023-09: $81.05 per share

- 2023-10: $81.59 per share

- 2023-11: $92.69 per share

- 2023-12: $90.29 per share

- 2024-01: $96.05 per share

- 2024-02: $111.58 per share

- 2024-03: $122.36 per share

- 2024-04: $111.10 per share

- 2024-05: $103.91 per share

- 2024-06: $99.29 per share

- 2024-07: $93.69 per share

- 2024-08: $90.38 per share

- 2024-09: $96.19 per share

- 2024-10: $96.20 per share

- 2024-11: $117.47 per share

- 2024-12: $111.35 per share

- 2025-01: $113.06 per share

- 2025-02: $113.80 per share

- 2025-03: $98.70 per share

- 2025-04: $90.95 per share

- 2025-05: $113.04 per share

- 2025-06: $124.01 per share

- 2025-07: $119.11 per share

- 2025-08: $118.38 per share

- 2025-09: $114.50 per share

- 2025-10: $112.62 per share

- 2025-11: $104.47 per share

- 2025-12: $113.77 per share

- 2026-01: $112.80 per share

- 2026-02: $106.04 per share

- 2026-03: $96.38 per share

- 2026-04: $103.75 per share

- 2026-05: $101.83 per share

- 2026-06: $96.25 per share

- 2026-07: $96.19 per share

- 2026-08: $107.55 per share

- 2026-09: $104.90 per share

- 2026-10: $108.58 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $69.45 per share, central $91.12 per share, high $106.27 per share

- FY2017: low $67.12 per share, central $84.89 per share, high $98.86 per share

- FY2018: low $77.22 per share, central $98.09 per share, high $114.28 per share

- FY2019: low $80.76 per share, central $100.03 per share, high $116.32 per share

- FY2020: low $71.01 per share, central $79.53 per share, high $90.88 per share

- FY2021: low $67.50 per share, central $75.70 per share, high $86.62 per share

- FY2022: low $30.68 per share, central $34.25 per share, high $39.00 per share

- FY2023: low $26.31 per share, central $29.28 per share, high $33.25 per share

- FY2024: low $24.47 per share, central $27.52 per share, high $31.60 per share

- FY2025: low $33.66 per share, central $40.23 per share, high $46.52 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:43.228Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm); period 2025-09-27, filed 2025-11-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.