# Dollar Tree (DLTR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DLTR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T09:06:29.457Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $124.41 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $41.01 per share, central $49.28 per share, high $57.13 per share. Buy at or below the central value $49.28 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T09:06:29.457Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.59×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: -0.04×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.4 pp

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 19.8%

- FY2018: 29.7%

- FY2019: -10.2%

- FY2020: 6.9%

- FY2021: 10.8%

- FY2022: 10.0%

- FY2023: 9.8%

- FY2024: 8.1%

- FY2025: 10.9%

- FY2026: 12.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -15.60×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$3.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $197M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.80×

- FY2023: 0.39×

- FY2024: 2.38×

- FY2025: 1.20×

- FY2026: 0.95×

### management: fail

- $1 retained earnings test: 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.8% vs 10.9%

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Market cap gain: $6.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $851M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: -$8.32

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.78

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$4.54

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.07

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $3.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.9%

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.3%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.97×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.9%

- FY2018: 1.2%

- FY2019: -24.9%

- FY2020: -5.3%

- FY2021: -6.6%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: 0.0%

- FY2024: -16.7%

- FY2025: -31.6%

- FY2026: -9.3%

## Holders

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 32% since Jul 2022 · "Dollar Tree Says Higher Fuel Prices Are Becoming a ‘Very, Very Meaningful’ Headwind" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +10.4%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-21: JPM adds Dollar Tree its focus list on growth, margin tailwinds from MPP rollout ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jpm-adds-dollar-tree-its-focus-list-on-growth-margin-tailwinds-from-mpp-rollout-4144570))

- 2025-09-03: Dollar Tree Shares Fall as Tariffs Dampen Near-Term Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8f27dfa8-5bc2-3027-88d9-6224ab8dc892/dollar-tree-shares-fall-as.html))

- 2025-12-03: Dollar Tree Fiscal Q3 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise; Raises Fiscal 2025 Adjusted Earnings Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-tree-fiscal-q3-adjusted-115556573.html))

- 2026-03-16: Dollar Tree shares fall despite Q4 beat as guidance disappoints ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-tree-shares-fall-despite-110950797.html))

- 2026-04-17: Dollar Tree Resets Growth Focus As Revenue Declines Test Efficiency Plan ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dollar-tree-resets-growth-focus-110621018.html))

- 2026-05-28: Dollar Tree Q1 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year EPS guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dollar-tree-q1-2026-earnings-132329259.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-16.

- FY2017: $21B 

- FY2018: $22B 

- FY2019: $23B 

- FY2020: $24B 

- FY2021: $26B 

- FY2022: $26B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $17B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $19B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 36.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-16.

- FY2017: 30.9% 

- FY2018: 31.6% 

- FY2019: 30.4% 

- FY2020: 29.8% 

- FY2021: 30.5% 

- FY2022: 29.4% 

- FY2023: 37.5% 

- FY2024: 35.9% 

- FY2025: 35.8% 

- FY2026: 36.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in discount stores; annual sales are USD 19.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2026: revenue 19411800000; grossProfit 7066800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); DLTR.US: Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.8% to 36.4% during 2024–26; it earns 10.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 36.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.19755761533171529],[2018,0.29672123847832216],[2019,-0.10224758572235462],[2020,0.06902906398844025],[2021,0.10766918842175176],[2022,0.10011826223283127],[2023,0.09827530367705661],[2024,0.0814596806498452],[2025,0.10874031234249301],[2026,0.12855328439221267]]; median 0.10389372532729152. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 39.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 15.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 565600000; owner earnings 906500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2018: growth capex 21000000; upkeep 611200000; owner earnings 1648600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012738080795826763.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2020: growth capex 169303482.6426543; upkeep 867396517.3573457; owner earnings 543603482.6426543. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.31144664824369495.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2021: growth capex 212200000; upkeep 686600000; owner earnings 1258000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1686804451510334.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2022: growth capex 251102213.38059103; upkeep 771697786.619409; owner earnings 1192302213.380591. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21060282415196482.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1253800000; owner earnings 616500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2026: growth capex 484600000; upkeep 648100000; owner earnings 1223600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.39604445897352075.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); Incremental return on capital 0.1549479077704552, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,15200000],[2021,17000000],[2022,17800000],[2023,9300000],[2024,1067900000],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2026: cash repurchases 1548000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); DLTR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.164 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-02.

### What could break it

"Risks associated with merchandise supply could adversely affect our financial performance." (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-16); Risks associated with merchandise supply could adversely affect our financial performance.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 18.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1793488283435053. Price 114.43; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.0572706935123042 → FY2026 5.931168201648085. Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $75.55 per share

- 2016-11: $88.16 per share

- 2016-12: $77.18 per share

- 2017-01: $77.19 per share

- 2017-02: $76.68 per share

- 2017-03: $78.46 per share

- 2017-04: $82.77 per share

- 2017-05: $77.70 per share

- 2017-06: $69.92 per share

- 2017-07: $72.08 per share

- 2017-08: $79.64 per share

- 2017-09: $86.82 per share

- 2017-10: $91.25 per share

- 2017-11: $102.76 per share

- 2017-12: $107.31 per share

- 2018-01: $115.00 per share

- 2018-02: $102.64 per share

- 2018-03: $94.90 per share

- 2018-04: $95.89 per share

- 2018-05: $82.59 per share

- 2018-06: $85.00 per share

- 2018-07: $91.28 per share

- 2018-08: $80.51 per share

- 2018-09: $81.55 per share

- 2018-10: $84.30 per share

- 2018-11: $86.77 per share

- 2018-12: $90.32 per share

- 2019-01: $96.83 per share

- 2019-02: $96.33 per share

- 2019-03: $105.04 per share

- 2019-04: $111.28 per share

- 2019-05: $101.59 per share

- 2019-06: $107.39 per share

- 2019-07: $101.75 per share

- 2019-08: $101.53 per share

- 2019-09: $114.16 per share

- 2019-10: $110.40 per share

- 2019-11: $91.46 per share

- 2019-12: $94.05 per share

- 2020-01: $87.07 per share

- 2020-02: $83.03 per share

- 2020-03: $73.47 per share

- 2020-04: $79.67 per share

- 2020-05: $97.87 per share

- 2020-06: $92.68 per share

- 2020-07: $93.35 per share

- 2020-08: $96.27 per share

- 2020-09: $91.34 per share

- 2020-10: $90.32 per share

- 2020-11: $109.24 per share

- 2020-12: $108.04 per share

- 2021-01: $101.66 per share

- 2021-02: $98.20 per share

- 2021-03: $114.46 per share

- 2021-04: $114.90 per share

- 2021-05: $97.50 per share

- 2021-06: $99.50 per share

- 2021-07: $99.79 per share

- 2021-08: $90.54 per share

- 2021-09: $95.72 per share

- 2021-10: $107.76 per share

- 2021-11: $133.83 per share

- 2021-12: $140.52 per share

- 2022-01: $131.22 per share

- 2022-02: $142.08 per share

- 2022-03: $160.15 per share

- 2022-04: $162.45 per share

- 2022-05: $160.33 per share

- 2022-06: $155.85 per share

- 2022-07: $165.36 per share

- 2022-08: $135.68 per share

- 2022-09: $136.10 per share

- 2022-10: $158.50 per share

- 2022-11: $150.29 per share

- 2022-12: $141.44 per share

- 2023-01: $150.18 per share

- 2023-02: $145.28 per share

- 2023-03: $143.55 per share

- 2023-04: $153.71 per share

- 2023-05: $134.88 per share

- 2023-06: $143.50 per share

- 2023-07: $154.33 per share

- 2023-08: $122.36 per share

- 2023-09: $106.45 per share

- 2023-10: $111.09 per share

- 2023-11: $123.59 per share

- 2023-12: $142.05 per share

- 2024-01: $130.62 per share

- 2024-02: $146.68 per share

- 2024-03: $133.15 per share

- 2024-04: $118.25 per share

- 2024-05: $117.95 per share

- 2024-06: $106.77 per share

- 2024-07: $104.34 per share

- 2024-08: $84.49 per share

- 2024-09: $70.32 per share

- 2024-10: $64.64 per share

- 2024-11: $71.27 per share

- 2024-12: $74.94 per share

- 2025-01: $73.35 per share

- 2025-02: $72.86 per share

- 2025-03: $75.07 per share

- 2025-04: $81.77 per share

- 2025-05: $90.26 per share

- 2025-06: $99.04 per share

- 2025-07: $113.55 per share

- 2025-08: $109.17 per share

- 2025-09: $94.37 per share

- 2025-10: $99.12 per share

- 2025-11: $110.81 per share

- 2025-12: $123.01 per share

- 2026-01: $117.59 per share

- 2026-02: $126.48 per share

- 2026-03: $109.51 per share

- 2026-04: $97.11 per share

- 2026-05: $116.44 per share

- 2026-06: $120.95 per share

- 2026-07: $127.21 per share

- 2026-08: $126.59 per share

- 2026-09: $114.02 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $35.15 per share, central $50.40 per share, high $58.90 per share

- FY2018: low $35.85 per share, central $51.03 per share, high $59.50 per share

- FY2020: low $27.89 per share, central $38.26 per share, high $44.82 per share

- FY2021: low $55.81 per share, central $78.08 per share, high $91.05 per share

- FY2022: low $65.40 per share, central $92.57 per share, high $108.39 per share

- FY2023: low $32.48 per share, central $36.76 per share, high $42.45 per share

- FY2026: low $37.30 per share, central $44.82 per share, high $51.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935703/000093570326000025/dltr-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.