# Domino's Pizza Group (DOM.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DOM.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:43:25.647Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 231.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 132.11 per share, central GBX 149.94 per share, high GBX 173.66 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 149.94 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:43:25.647Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.23×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.15×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 24.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 21.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 15.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 46.9%

- FY2017: 75.1%

- FY2018: 24.5%

- FY2019: 35.2%

- FY2020: 21.0%

- FY2021: 24.9%

- FY2022: 23.9%

- FY2023: 28.5%

- FY2024: 24.3%

- FY2025: 20.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.50×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 213M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 424M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 514.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.47×

- FY2022: 0.45×

- FY2023: 0.61×

- FY2024: 0.53×

- FY2025: 0.38×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 46.9% vs 24.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.13 to 0.23 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -219M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.9%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.23

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.30

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 201M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 712M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 46.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 24.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.14

- FY2017: GBP 0.13

- FY2018: GBP 0.11

- FY2019: GBP 0.13

- FY2020: GBP 0.09

- FY2021: GBP 0.17

- FY2022: GBP 0.19

- FY2023: GBP 0.29

- FY2024: GBP 0.23

- FY2025: GBP 0.15

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -4.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.68×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.48×

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.4%

- FY2017: -9.9%

- FY2018: -9.2%

- FY2019: -0.3%

- FY2020: -12.0%

- FY2021: -6.8%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: 0.3%

- FY2024: -2.2%

- FY2025: -4.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 50% since Dec 2021 · "Domino’s opening fewer stores because of labour cost increases" (uk.finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +3.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.710Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: Domino’s opening fewer stores because of labour cost increases ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/domino-opening-fewer-stores-because-080745172.html))

- 2026-04-27: Domino’s Stock Slides on Earnings Miss. It’s Counting on More Stores to Spur Growth. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d465dd37-5c41-3f87-80b7-a35d107d09bb/domino%E2%80%99s-stock-slides-on.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75/2025-12-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75-2025-12-28/reports/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75-2025-12-28-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2016: GBP 361M 

- FY2017: GBP 475M 

- FY2018: GBP 534M 

- FY2019: GBP 508M 

- FY2020: GBP 505M 

- FY2021: GBP 561M 

- FY2022: GBP 600M 

- FY2023: GBP 680M 

- FY2024: GBP 665M 

- FY2025: GBP 685M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 43.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75/2025-12-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75-2025-12-28/reports/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75-2025-12-28-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2016: 40.2% 

- FY2017: 40.9% 

- FY2018: 41.8% 

- FY2019: 46.2% 

- FY2020: 46.8% 

- FY2021: 47.9% 

- FY2022: 45.6% 

- FY2023: 46.5% 

- FY2024: 48.0% 

- FY2025: 43.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are GBP 685.4 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: revenue 685400000; grossProfit 300600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.9% to 48% during 2023–25; it earns 24.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 46.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.46900074591025587],[2017,0.751037937586743],[2018,0.2450072204576644],[2019,0.35152649443904954],[2020,0.2098386463264395],[2021,0.24940867163663458],[2022,0.23941723524355646],[2023,0.2849155183476428],[2024,0.24299302455663158],[2025,0.20782724001279534]]; median 0.2472079460471495. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 23.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2016: growth capex 8918624.029301403; upkeep 13539375.970698597; owner earnings 65876624.029301405. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13538374439671452.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2017: growth capex 22915838.862891708; upkeep 20484161.137108292; owner earnings 60515838.862891704. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3786750591826249.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2018: growth capex 11849263.209189057; upkeep 17050736.790810943; owner earnings 48749263.20918906. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24306548302776224.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 23400000; owner earnings 54660000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 14300000; owner earnings 36880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2022: growth capex 1000000; upkeep 18700000; owner earnings 36920000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.027085590465872156.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 20800000; owner earnings 70040000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 18500000; owner earnings 47460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 17000000; owner earnings 22180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Dividend observations: [[2016,36963000],[2017,40400000],[2018,44300000],[2019,44300000],[2020,25600000],[2021,56000000],[2022,43800000],[2023,41900000],[2024,42000000],[2025,43400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: cash repurchases 23400000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DOM.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.661 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 5.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0789544599901536. Price 231.2; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.0980694072169324 → FY2025 0.05737537411692884. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 340.10 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 350.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 360.80 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 362.30 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 384.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 308.80 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 330.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 317.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 293.90 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 266.40 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 270.40 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 310.20 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 335.70 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 325.40 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 345.70 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 337.70 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 326.10 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 330.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 363.30 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 380.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 346.90 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 315.40 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 291.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 279.40 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 283.30 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 257.20 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 233.10 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 264.80 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 233.60 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 242.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 267.50 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 235.10 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 278.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 247.40 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 239.80 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 254.90 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 285.90 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 309.80 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 320.20 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 308.90 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 296.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 284.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 344.20 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 359.60 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 310.20 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 318.60 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 335.40 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 365.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 331.40 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 319.80 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 316.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 329.20 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 306.20 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 347.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 382.60 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 365.20 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 388.60 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 418.80 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 411.40 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 396.20 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 387.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 359.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 458.80 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 386.60 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 365.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 378.60 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 347.60 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 336.40 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 279.20 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 285.60 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 236.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 222.60 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 226.20 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 286.20 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 293.40 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 314.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 286.40 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 286.60 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 294.20 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 279.20 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 276.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 347.40 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 395.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 376.40 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 343.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 369.80 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 376.80 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 351.40 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 337.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 344.60 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 325.80 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 333.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 306.80 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 324.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 305.80 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 300.80 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 301.20 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 340.40 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 315.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 300.40 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 290.80 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 283.60 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 269.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 260.80 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 257.40 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 240.20 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 195.30 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 199.10 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 194.70 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 174.70 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 173.40 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 182.10 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 200.80 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 172.20 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 193.90 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 186.20 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 181.10 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 201.40 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 212.40 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 213.80 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 231.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 160.24 per share, central GBX 232.30 per share, high GBX 272.49 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 213.45 per share, central GBX 309.57 per share, high GBX 363.18 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 253.65 per share, central GBX 368.63 per share, high GBX 432.76 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 203.42 per share, central GBX 295.85 per share, high GBX 347.68 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 170.29 per share, central GBX 238.23 per share, high GBX 277.84 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 152.33 per share, central GBX 204.46 per share, high GBX 238.43 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 114.30 per share, central GBX 141.28 per share, high GBX 164.14 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 161.16 per share, central GBX 226.11 per share, high GBX 263.93 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 141.64 per share, central GBX 173.73 per share, high GBX 201.07 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 130.26 per share, central GBX 147.83 per share, high GBX 171.23 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:49:15.218Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75/2025-12-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75-2025-12-28/reports/213800Q6ZKHAOV48JL75-2025-12-28-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-28, filed 2026-04-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Domino's Pizza Group

DOM · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 231.20
Buy up to: GBX 149.94
Expected / yr: 7.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 17.9% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 17.0%
Worst year: 10.5%
Latest · 2025: 14.9%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 24.7% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 21% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 24.7%
Worst year: 20.8%
Latest · 2025: 20.8%

Each $1 of profit left $0.50 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.50×
Annual median: 0.47×
Latest · 2025: 0.38×

Per-share value rose from 0.13 to 0.23, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.15
Worst year: GBP 0.09
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.15

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -4.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.4%
Worst year: 3.4%
Latest · 2025: -4.5%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 17.1%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.12 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 340.10 · Value 232.30 · Buy at or below 232.30; 2016-11 · Price GBX 350.00 · Value 232.30 · Buy at or below 232.30; 2016-12 · Price GBX 360.80 · Value 232.30 · Buy at or below 232.30; 2017-01 · Price GBX 362.30 · Value 232.30 · Buy at or below 232.30; 2017-02 · Price GBX 384.00 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-03 · Price GBX 308.80 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-04 · Price GBX 330.50 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-05 · Price GBX 317.00 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-06 · Price GBX 293.90 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-07 · Price GBX 266.40 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-08 · Price GBX 270.40 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-09 · Price GBX 310.20 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-10 · Price GBX 335.70 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-11 · Price GBX 325.40 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2017-12 · Price GBX 345.70 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2018-01 · Price GBX 337.70 · Value 309.57 · Buy at or below 309.57; 2018-02 · Price GBX 326.10 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-03 · Price GBX 330.50 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-04 · Price GBX 363.30 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-05 · Price GBX 380.00 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-06 · Price GBX 346.90 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-07 · Price GBX 315.40 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-08 · Price GBX 291.00 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-09 · Price GBX 279.40 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-10 · Price GBX 283.30 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-11 · Price GBX 257.20 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2018-12 · Price GBX 233.10 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2019-01 · Price GBX 264.80 · Value 368.63 · Buy at or below 368.63; 2019-02 · Price GBX 233.60 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-03 · Price GBX 242.00 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-04 · Price GBX 267.50 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-05 · Price GBX 235.10 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-06 · Price GBX 278.00 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-07 · Price GBX 247.40 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-08 · Price GBX 239.80 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-09 · Price GBX 254.90 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-10 · Price GBX 285.90 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-11 · Price GBX 309.80 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2019-12 · Price GBX 320.20 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2020-01 · Price GBX 308.90 · Value 295.85 · Buy at or below 295.85; 2020-02 · Price GBX 296.00 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-03 · Price GBX 284.00 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-04 · Price GBX 344.20 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-05 · Price GBX 359.60 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-06 · Price GBX 310.20 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-07 · Price GBX 318.60 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-08 · Price GBX 335.40 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-09 · Price GBX 365.00 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-10 · Price GBX 331.40 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-11 · Price GBX 319.80 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2020-12 · Price GBX 316.00 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2021-01 · Price GBX 329.20 · Value 238.23 · Buy at or below 238.23; 2021-02 · Price GBX 306.20 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-03 · Price GBX 347.00 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-04 · Price GBX 382.60 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-05 · Price GBX 365.20 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-06 · Price GBX 388.60 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-07 · Price GBX 418.80 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-08 · Price GBX 411.40 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-09 · Price GBX 396.20 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-10 · Price GBX 387.00 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-11 · Price GBX 359.00 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2021-12 · Price GBX 458.80 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2022-01 · Price GBX 386.60 · Value 204.46 · Buy at or below 204.46; 2022-02 · Price GBX 365.00 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-03 · Price GBX 378.60 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-04 · Price GBX 347.60 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-05 · Price GBX 336.40 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-06 · Price GBX 279.20 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-07 · Price GBX 285.60 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-08 · Price GBX 236.00 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-09 · Price GBX 222.60 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-10 · Price GBX 226.20 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-11 · Price GBX 286.20 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2022-12 · Price GBX 293.40 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2023-01 · Price GBX 314.00 · Value 141.28 · Buy at or below 141.28; 2023-02 · Price GBX 286.40 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-03 · Price GBX 286.60 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-04 · Price GBX 294.20 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-05 · Price GBX 279.20 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-06 · Price GBX 276.00 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-07 · Price GBX 347.40 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-08 · Price GBX 395.00 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-09 · Price GBX 376.40 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-10 · Price GBX 343.00 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-11 · Price GBX 369.80 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2023-12 · Price GBX 376.80 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2024-01 · Price GBX 351.40 · Value 226.11 · Buy at or below 226.11; 2024-02 · Price GBX 337.00 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-03 · Price GBX 344.60 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-04 · Price GBX 325.80 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-05 · Price GBX 333.00 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-06 · Price GBX 306.80 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-07 · Price GBX 324.00 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-08 · Price GBX 305.80 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-09 · Price GBX 300.80 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-10 · Price GBX 301.20 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-11 · Price GBX 340.40 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2024-12 · Price GBX 315.00 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2025-01 · Price GBX 300.40 · Value 173.73 · Buy at or below 173.73; 2025-02 · Price GBX 290.80 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-03 · Price GBX 283.60 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-04 · Price GBX 269.00 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-05 · Price GBX 260.80 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-06 · Price GBX 257.40 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-07 · Price GBX 240.20 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-08 · Price GBX 195.30 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-09 · Price GBX 199.10 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-10 · Price GBX 194.70 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-11 · Price GBX 174.70 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2025-12 · Price GBX 173.40 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2026-01 · Price GBX 182.10 · Value 147.83 · Buy at or below 147.83; 2026-02 · Price GBX 200.80 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-03 · Price GBX 172.20 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-04 · Price GBX 193.90 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-05 · Price GBX 186.20 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-06 · Price GBX 181.10 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-07 · Price GBX 201.40 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-08 · Price GBX 212.40 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-09 · Price GBX 213.80 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-10 · Price GBX 231.20 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94; 2026-10 · Price GBX 231.20 · Value 149.94 · Buy at or below 149.94

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 132.11 – GBX 173.66
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 149.94
Discount to value	1 − 231.20 / 149.94 = -54.2%
Return / year	About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 11.83/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 2.86/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 685M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 22M

Owner earnings

Operating margin14.9%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -525M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares387M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·