# Dow (DOW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DOW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:05.492Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $29.66 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $18.11 per share, central $20.00 per share, high $22.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value $20.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:05.492Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.3% at the stated quote. About 7.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.49×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 13.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 6.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 21.7%

- FY2017: 16.3%

- FY2018: 14.5%

- FY2019: 13.2%

- FY2020: 9.6%

- FY2021: 27.5%

- FY2022: 16.3%

- FY2023: 10.7%

- FY2024: 6.5%

- FY2025: 0.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.15×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $12B

- Net income, five-year total: $10.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -624.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.08×

- FY2022: 1.15×

- FY2023: 1.23×

- FY2024: 0.85×

- FY2025: 0.86×

### management: fail

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.3% vs 6.5%

- Per-share earnings: 3.84 to 0.83 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Per-share value growth: -17.4%

- Per-share value change: -$3.01

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.84

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.83

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.77

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $5.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $19B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.84

- FY2017: $0.62

- FY2018: $6.01

- FY2019: -$1.84

- FY2020: $1.64

- FY2021: $8.49

- FY2022: $6.43

- FY2023: $0.83

- FY2024: $1.58

- FY2025: -$3.69

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.59×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.1%

- FY2017: 6.7%

- FY2018: 0.8%

- FY2019: -12.1%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -1.1%

- FY2022: -4.8%

- FY2023: -7.9%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -6.2%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 56% since May 2022 · "Citi cautious on Dow and LyondellBasell: demand weakness caps polyethylene upside" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:39.211Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-24: Dow Cuts Dividend In Half As Losses Mount And Tariffs Amplify Industry Pain ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-cuts-dividend-half-losses-112556893.html))

- 2026-01-29: DOW Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss on Lower Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-q4-earnings-beat-estimates-140500237.html))

- 2026-02-14: Assessing Dow’s Valuation As Restructuring Cuts 4,500 Jobs And Accelerates AI And Automation Investment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/assessing-dow-valuation-restructuring-cuts-071208615.html))

- 2026-03-31: Why Dow (DOW) Is Up 16.2% After Warning On Petrochemical Shortages And Inflationary Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-dow-dow-16-2-120350133.html))

- 2026-06-09: Dow raises Q2 outlook as supply constraints persist; shares slide ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4601846-dow-raises-q2-outlook-as-supply-constraints-persist-shares-slide?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-23: DOW Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Pricing and Self-Help Actions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dow-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-144500592.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29915/000175178826000018/dow-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-03.

- FY2016: $48B 

- FY2017: $44B 

- FY2018: $60B 

- FY2019: $43B 

- FY2020: $39B 

- FY2021: $55B 

- FY2022: $57B 

- FY2023: $45B 

- FY2024: $43B 

- FY2025: $40B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29915/000175178826000018/dow-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-03.

- FY2016: 20.7% 

- FY2017: 25.8% 

- FY2018: 13.5% 

- FY2019: 13.9% 

- FY2020: 12.5% 

- FY2021: 18.9% 

- FY2022: 13.8% 

- FY2023: 11.1% 

- FY2024: 10.4% 

- FY2025: 6.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in chemicals; annual sales are USD 40 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29915/000175178826000018/dow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: revenue 39968000000; grossProfit 2395000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 6% to 11.1% during 2023–25; it earns 13.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 11.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29915/000175178826000018/dow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.21698289111034738],[2017,0.16324267625683675],[2018,0.14527997926550068],[2019,0.13210690071514813],[2020,0.09574912692505869],[2021,0.2750279248754693],[2022,0.16316037140332149],[2023,0.10740203193033382],[2024,0.06492435988769224],[2025,0.008625902906097766]]; median 0.1386934399903244. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2994000000; owner earnings 17000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2137000000; owner earnings 5271000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1387000000; owner earnings 2712000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2324000000; owner earnings 6829000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2058000000; owner earnings 5282000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2477000000; owner earnings 723000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3065000000; owner earnings 945000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,2462000000],[2017,3235000000],[2018,3711000000],[2019,2085000000],[2020,2071000000],[2021,2073000000],[2022,2006000000],[2023,1972000000],[2024,1966000000],[2025,1490000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DOW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.20400000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1751788/000175178826000018/dow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); ek additional actions to mitigate the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty. Unforeseen macroeconomic conditions could result in additional actions that could adversely affect equity performance until market conditions improve. For additional information, see Part II Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.

Sales of the Company's products are also subject to extensive federal, state, local and foreign laws and regulations; trade agreements; import and export controls; taxes; and duties and tariffs. The imposition of additional regulations, controls, taxes, duties and tariffs or changes to bilateral and regional trade agreements could also result in lower sales volume, which could negatively impact the Company’s results of operations.

During 2025, the United States changed its long-standing trade policies and announced significant new tariffs, with certain exceptions, on virtually all imported goods. These actions triggered the negotiation of new trade agreements with certain U.S. trading partners. While these negotiations resulted in the reduction of certain recently imposed tariffs, the average U.S. tariff rate remains at its highest level since the 1930s. In response to the changes in U.S. trade policies, certain U.S. trading partners imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. Shifts in tariffs, trade agreements, import/export restrictions, trade sanctions, sector specific trade barriers, and other governmental trade actions, whether enacted by the United States or other countries, especially those instituted in the Company's significant markets or markets where its significant customers or suppliers are located, and the associated uncertainty of long-term trade policies, could impact the Company's sales volume, sales price, and production and other costs. Changes in trade policies may also cause disruptions to material sourcing and availability, global supply chains and logistics and access to end markets. Additionally, changes in U.S. trade policy and associated responses from trading partners may create shifts in global market dynamics, disrupt the long-term planning process for governments and private enterprises and result in continued global financial market volatility. The impact of these changes in trade policies and the resulting trade and market uncertainty could have a negative impact on the Company’s results of operations. There can be no assurance that, in the future, the United States, other countries or international trade bodies will not institute new tariffs or more restrictive trade policies or remedies and, as a result, the Company may face additional uncertainty and adverse impact on its business, financial condition and results of operations.

Economic conditions around the world, and in certain industries and geographi

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08634984930355827. Price 29.66; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.100048332527791 → FY2025 -3.1871838111298483. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-03: $51.63 per share

- 2019-04: $56.73 per share

- 2019-05: $46.76 per share

- 2019-06: $49.31 per share

- 2019-07: $48.44 per share

- 2019-08: $42.63 per share

- 2019-09: $47.65 per share

- 2019-10: $50.49 per share

- 2019-11: $53.37 per share

- 2019-12: $54.73 per share

- 2020-01: $46.07 per share

- 2020-02: $40.41 per share

- 2020-03: $29.24 per share

- 2020-04: $36.69 per share

- 2020-05: $38.60 per share

- 2020-06: $40.76 per share

- 2020-07: $41.06 per share

- 2020-08: $45.12 per share

- 2020-09: $47.05 per share

- 2020-10: $45.49 per share

- 2020-11: $53.01 per share

- 2020-12: $55.50 per share

- 2021-01: $51.90 per share

- 2021-02: $59.31 per share

- 2021-03: $63.94 per share

- 2021-04: $62.50 per share

- 2021-05: $68.42 per share

- 2021-06: $63.28 per share

- 2021-07: $62.16 per share

- 2021-08: $62.90 per share

- 2021-09: $57.56 per share

- 2021-10: $55.97 per share

- 2021-11: $54.93 per share

- 2021-12: $56.72 per share

- 2022-01: $59.73 per share

- 2022-02: $58.96 per share

- 2022-03: $63.72 per share

- 2022-04: $66.50 per share

- 2022-05: $67.98 per share

- 2022-06: $51.61 per share

- 2022-07: $53.21 per share

- 2022-08: $51.00 per share

- 2022-09: $43.93 per share

- 2022-10: $46.74 per share

- 2022-11: $50.97 per share

- 2022-12: $50.39 per share

- 2023-01: $59.35 per share

- 2023-02: $57.20 per share

- 2023-03: $54.82 per share

- 2023-04: $54.40 per share

- 2023-05: $48.78 per share

- 2023-06: $53.26 per share

- 2023-07: $56.47 per share

- 2023-08: $54.56 per share

- 2023-09: $51.56 per share

- 2023-10: $48.34 per share

- 2023-11: $51.75 per share

- 2023-12: $54.84 per share

- 2024-01: $53.60 per share

- 2024-02: $55.88 per share

- 2024-03: $57.93 per share

- 2024-04: $56.90 per share

- 2024-05: $57.63 per share

- 2024-06: $53.05 per share

- 2024-07: $54.47 per share

- 2024-08: $53.58 per share

- 2024-09: $54.63 per share

- 2024-10: $49.38 per share

- 2024-11: $44.21 per share

- 2024-12: $40.13 per share

- 2025-01: $39.05 per share

- 2025-02: $38.11 per share

- 2025-03: $34.92 per share

- 2025-04: $30.59 per share

- 2025-05: $27.74 per share

- 2025-06: $26.48 per share

- 2025-07: $23.29 per share

- 2025-08: $24.63 per share

- 2025-09: $22.93 per share

- 2025-10: $23.85 per share

- 2025-11: $23.85 per share

- 2025-12: $23.38 per share

- 2026-01: $27.55 per share

- 2026-02: $30.73 per share

- 2026-03: $41.65 per share

- 2026-04: $40.49 per share

- 2026-05: $33.75 per share

- 2026-06: $27.36 per share

- 2026-07: $30.29 per share

- 2026-08: $30.52 per share

- 2026-09: $27.54 per share

- 2026-10: $29.66 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $28.63 per share, central $31.89 per share, high $36.22 per share

- FY2017: low $39.35 per share, central $43.79 per share, high $49.71 per share

- FY2018: low $46.48 per share, central $52.59 per share, high $60.73 per share

- FY2019: low $2.28 per share, central $2.32 per share, high $2.36 per share

- FY2020: low $6.04 per share, central $6.07 per share, high $6.11 per share

- FY2021: low $59.42 per share, central $67.26 per share, high $77.70 per share

- FY2022: low $87.04 per share, central $107.55 per share, high $124.86 per share

- FY2023: low $51.36 per share, central $58.03 per share, high $66.92 per share

- FY2024: low $49.29 per share, central $55.75 per share, high $64.36 per share

- FY2025: low $17.74 per share, central $19.60 per share, high $22.08 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29915/000175178826000018/dow-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.