# Diploma (DPLM.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DPLM.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:17.072Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 7,815.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,641.04 per share, central GBX 1,863.37 per share, high GBX 2,159.35 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,863.37 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:17.072Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.6% at the stated quote. About 4.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.14×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 11.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 28.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 37.1%

- FY2017: 42.1%

- FY2018: 43.2%

- FY2019: 34.6%

- FY2020: 27.5%

- FY2021: 16.3%

- FY2022: 15.9%

- FY2023: 18.0%

- FY2024: 18.1%

- FY2025: 28.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.35×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 805M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 596M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.28×

- FY2022: 1.35×

- FY2023: 1.32×

- FY2024: 1.44×

- FY2025: 1.33×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.1% vs 18.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.34 to 0.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP 5.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 361M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.9%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.62

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.65

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 1.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 847M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.34

- FY2017: GBP 0.42

- FY2018: GBP 0.48

- FY2019: GBP 0.55

- FY2020: GBP 0.43

- FY2021: GBP 0.56

- FY2022: GBP 0.76

- FY2023: GBP 0.87

- FY2024: GBP 0.96

- FY2025: GBP 1.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.9%

- FY2017: -3.3%

- FY2018: -2.8%

- FY2019: -1.7%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: -4.7%

- FY2022: -2.2%

- FY2023: -4.5%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -4.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.3% a year for ten years · sales +11.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.267Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-12-09.

- FY2016: GBP 383M 

- FY2017: GBP 452M 

- FY2018: GBP 485M 

- FY2019: GBP 545M 

- FY2020: GBP 538M 

- FY2021: GBP 787M 

- FY2022: GBP 1.0B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 24.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-12-09.

- FY2016: 35.9% 

- FY2017: 35.6% 

- FY2018: 35.6% 

- FY2019: 36.2% 

- FY2020: 36.1% 

- FY2021: 36.6% 

- FY2022: 33.1% 

- FY2023: 21.7% 

- FY2024: 46.1% 

- FY2025: 24.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in industrial distribution; annual sales are GBP 1.5 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-12-09); FY2025: revenue 1524500000; grossProfit 377700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DPLM.LSE: Diploma PLC, together with its subsidiaries, supplies specialized technical products and services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and internationally. It operates through three business sectors: Controls, Seals, and Life Sciences. The Controls sector offers wire and cabling, interconnect, specialty fasteners, specialty adhesive and industrial automation solutions for various applications. The Seals sector supplies sealing and fluid power products, gaskets, hoses and fittings, pumps and valves, and solutions for aftermarket repairs, original equipment manufacturing, and maintenance, repair and overhaul projects. The Life Sciences sector supplies and services equipment; provides consumables and instrumentation for surgery, diagnosis of disease, and critical care support; and supplies diagnostic and scientific technologies, surgical instruments, medical devices, endoscopes, patient monitoring equipment, specialist hospital supplies, and clinical nutrition. It serves public and private hospitals, clinics and diagnostics laboratories. Diploma PLC was incorporated in 1999 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.7% to 46.1% during 2023–25; it earns 28.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-12-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.37111317445579284],[2017,0.42095962053651476],[2018,0.4317230642627528],[2019,0.3456390416520872],[2020,0.27466974568128966],[2021,0.16278380840113432],[2022,0.15939786979484522],[2023,0.18022371600099527],[2024,0.18099905949231385],[2025,0.28677761434040083]]; median 0.28072368001084524. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 4.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3500000; owner earnings 48600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3100000; owner earnings 59400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 5300000; owner earnings 62600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 9700000; owner earnings 69200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 9400000; owner earnings 61260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 6200000; owner earnings 89040000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 15400000; owner earnings 127780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 23100000; owner earnings 155760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 19700000; owner earnings 186740000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-12-09); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 14400000; owner earnings 245940000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); Dividend observations: [[2016,21000000],[2017,23500000],[2018,26800000],[2019,29800000],[2020,23200000],[2021,52900000],[2022,56200000],[2023,70500000],[2024,76800000],[2025,80700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-12-09); FY2025: cash repurchases 4099999 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DPLM.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.523 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

The two primary categories of CRROs originally identified in2023 remain unchanged: physical and transitional risks.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-12-09); The assessment was performed on a net basis, considering existing mitigation measures and actions. The two primary categories of CRROs originally identified in2023 remain unchanged: physical and transitional risks. Physical risks: the risk of physical damage to assets from extreme weather events (heatwaves, droughts, freezing, flooding and windstorms), financial losses from stock, contents and buildings damage, and operational disruption due to the disruption in capacity.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 17.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.267722758231299. Price 7815; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.3778152545342255 → FY2025 1.8340755942810612. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 937.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 939.50 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,039.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,015.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,071.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,059.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,109.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,119.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,105.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,080.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,083.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,064.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,079.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,143.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,247.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,168.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,096.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,141.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,206.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,256.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,311.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,316.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,456.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,416.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,315.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,268.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,210.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,270.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,352.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 1,458.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,600.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,486.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 1,532.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 1,517.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,585.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 1,663.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,599.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 1,842.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,024.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,948.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,880.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,614.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,725.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,830.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,795.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,814.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,930.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,202.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,226.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,120.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,192.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,318.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,318.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,548.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,868.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,886.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,904.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,958.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,066.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,842.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 3,004.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 3,206.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 3,374.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,752.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,674.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,634.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 2,758.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,600.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,228.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,748.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,512.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,324.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,486.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 2,800.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 2,776.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 2,730.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,782.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 2,810.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 2,686.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 3,032.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 2,984.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 3,238.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 3,134.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 3,004.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,842.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 3,350.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 3,582.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 3,260.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 3,456.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 3,722.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 3,628.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 4,092.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 4,148.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 4,448.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 4,464.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 4,434.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 4,258.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 4,460.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 4,250.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 4,552.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 4,496.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 3,846.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 3,962.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 4,686.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 4,888.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 5,380.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 5,400.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 5,305.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 5,610.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 5,465.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 5,295.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 5,320.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 5,675.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 5,965.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 6,940.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 6,990.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 7,130.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 7,320.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 7,330.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 7,725.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 7,860.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 636.63 per share, central GBX 918.59 per share, high GBX 1,077.49 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 774.03 per share, central GBX 1,123.76 per share, high GBX 1,318.81 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 826.67 per share, central GBX 1,195.26 per share, high GBX 1,400.84 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 908.12 per share, central GBX 1,318.22 per share, high GBX 1,546.94 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,045.25 per share, central GBX 1,445.74 per share, high GBX 1,669.11 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 885.65 per share, central GBX 1,011.83 per share, high GBX 1,174.20 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 1,159.52 per share, central GBX 1,345.56 per share, high GBX 1,561.68 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 1,343.63 per share, central GBX 1,639.27 per share, high GBX 1,906.52 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,417.51 per share, central GBX 1,610.07 per share, high GBX 1,866.39 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,650.73 per share, central GBX 1,873.07 per share, high GBX 2,169.04 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:59.686Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30/reports/2138008OGI7VYG8FGR19-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml); period 2025-09-30, filed 2025-12-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Diploma

DPLM · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 7,815.00
Buy up to: GBX 1,863.37
Expected / yr: 4.6% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What could break it
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 11.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 15.1%
Worst year: 13.3%
Latest · 2025: 20.4%

Gross margin fell 11 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 28.1%
Worst year: 15.9%
Latest · 2025: 28.7%

Each $1 of profit left $1.35 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.35×
Annual median: 1.33×
Latest · 2025: 1.33×

Share growth was 1.7% over ten years and 3.3% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.55
Worst year: GBP 0.34
Latest · 2025: GBP 1.38

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -4.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -4.2%
Worst year: -1.7%
Latest · 2025: -4.5%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 15.4%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.46 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 937.50 · Value 918.59 · Buy at or below 918.59; 2016-11 · Price GBX 939.50 · Value 918.59 · Buy at or below 918.59; 2016-12 · Price GBX 1039.00 · Value 918.59 · Buy at or below 918.59; 2017-01 · Price GBX 1015.00 · Value 918.59 · Buy at or below 918.59; 2017-02 · Price GBX 1071.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-03 · Price GBX 1059.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-04 · Price GBX 1109.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-05 · Price GBX 1119.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-06 · Price GBX 1105.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-07 · Price GBX 1080.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-08 · Price GBX 1083.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-09 · Price GBX 1064.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-10 · Price GBX 1079.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-11 · Price GBX 1143.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2017-12 · Price GBX 1247.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2018-01 · Price GBX 1168.00 · Value 1123.76 · Buy at or below 1123.76; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1096.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-03 · Price GBX 1141.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-04 · Price GBX 1206.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-05 · Price GBX 1256.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-06 · Price GBX 1311.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-07 · Price GBX 1316.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-08 · Price GBX 1456.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-09 · Price GBX 1416.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-10 · Price GBX 1315.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-11 · Price GBX 1268.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2018-12 · Price GBX 1210.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2019-01 · Price GBX 1270.00 · Value 1195.26 · Buy at or below 1195.26; 2019-02 · Price GBX 1352.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-03 · Price GBX 1458.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-04 · Price GBX 1600.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-05 · Price GBX 1486.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-06 · Price GBX 1532.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-07 · Price GBX 1517.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-08 · Price GBX 1585.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-09 · Price GBX 1663.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-10 · Price GBX 1599.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-11 · Price GBX 1842.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2019-12 · Price GBX 2024.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2020-01 · Price GBX 1948.00 · Value 1318.22 · Buy at or below 1318.22; 2020-02 · Price GBX 1880.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-03 · Price GBX 1614.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-04 · Price GBX 1725.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-05 · Price GBX 1830.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-06 · Price GBX 1795.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-07 · Price GBX 1814.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-08 · Price GBX 1930.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-09 · Price GBX 2202.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-10 · Price GBX 2226.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-11 · Price GBX 2120.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2020-12 · Price GBX 2192.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2021-01 · Price GBX 2318.00 · Value 1445.74 · Buy at or below 1445.74; 2021-02 · Price GBX 2318.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-03 · Price GBX 2548.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-04 · Price GBX 2868.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-05 · Price GBX 2886.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-06 · Price GBX 2904.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-07 · Price GBX 2958.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-08 · Price GBX 3066.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-09 · Price GBX 2842.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-10 · Price GBX 3004.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-11 · Price GBX 3206.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2021-12 · Price GBX 3374.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2022-01 · Price GBX 2752.00 · Value 1011.83 · Buy at or below 1011.83; 2022-02 · Price GBX 2674.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-03 · Price GBX 2634.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-04 · Price GBX 2758.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-05 · Price GBX 2600.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-06 · Price GBX 2228.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-07 · Price GBX 2748.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-08 · Price GBX 2512.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-09 · Price GBX 2324.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-10 · Price GBX 2486.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-11 · Price GBX 2800.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2022-12 · Price GBX 2776.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2023-01 · Price GBX 2730.00 · Value 1345.56 · Buy at or below 1345.56; 2023-02 · Price GBX 2782.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-03 · Price GBX 2810.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-04 · Price GBX 2686.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-05 · Price GBX 3032.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-06 · Price GBX 2984.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-07 · Price GBX 3238.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-08 · Price GBX 3134.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-09 · Price GBX 3004.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-10 · Price GBX 2842.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-11 · Price GBX 3350.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2023-12 · Price GBX 3582.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2024-01 · Price GBX 3260.00 · Value 1639.27 · Buy at or below 1639.27; 2024-02 · Price GBX 3456.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-03 · Price GBX 3722.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-04 · Price GBX 3628.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-05 · Price GBX 4092.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-06 · Price GBX 4148.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-07 · Price GBX 4448.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-08 · Price GBX 4464.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-09 · Price GBX 4434.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-10 · Price GBX 4258.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-11 · Price GBX 4460.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2024-12 · Price GBX 4250.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2025-01 · Price GBX 4552.00 · Value 1610.07 · Buy at or below 1610.07; 2025-02 · Price GBX 4496.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-03 · Price GBX 3846.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-04 · Price GBX 3962.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-05 · Price GBX 4686.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-06 · Price GBX 4888.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-07 · Price GBX 5380.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-08 · Price GBX 5400.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-09 · Price GBX 5305.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-10 · Price GBX 5610.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-11 · Price GBX 5465.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2025-12 · Price GBX 5295.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2026-01 · Price GBX 5320.00 · Value 1873.07 · Buy at or below 1873.07; 2026-02 · Price GBX 5675.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-03 · Price GBX 5965.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-04 · Price GBX 6940.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-05 · Price GBX 6990.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-06 · Price GBX 7130.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-07 · Price GBX 7320.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-08 · Price GBX 7330.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-09 · Price GBX 7725.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-10 · Price GBX 7860.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37; 2026-10 · Price GBX 7815.00 · Value 1863.37 · Buy at or below 1863.37

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 1,641.04 – GBX 2,159.35
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 1,863.37
Discount to value	1 − 7815.00 / 1863.37 = -319.4%
Return / year	About 4.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 147.53/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 28.49/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 1.5B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 246M

Owner earnings

Operating margin20.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -383M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares134M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·