# Domino's Pizza Inc Common Stock (DPZ.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DPZ

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:05.950Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $303.09 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $270.98 per share, central $391.17 per share, high $458.20 per share. Buy at or below the central value $391.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:05.950Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.0% at the stated quote. About 12.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.04×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 72.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 64.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 50.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 98.6%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 71.7%

- FY2020: 73.6%

- FY2021: 69.3%

- FY2022: 61.2%

- FY2023: 64.4%

- FY2024: 68.5%

- FY2025: 84.1%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 79.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 95.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.95×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 107.0% vs 68.5%

- Per-share earnings: 4.30 to 16.69 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Market cap gain: $6.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 18.5%

- Per-share value change: $12.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $16.69

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.45

- Average buyback yield: 4.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $125M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 68.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.30

- FY2017: $5.83

- FY2018: $8.35

- FY2019: $9.56

- FY2020: $12.39

- FY2021: $13.54

- FY2022: $12.53

- FY2023: $14.66

- FY2024: $16.69

- FY2025: $17.57

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.32×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.1%

- FY2017: -7.3%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -7.0%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: -8.6%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: -4.3%

- FY2024: -2.3%

- FY2025: -10.6%

## Holders

- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 46% since Dec 2021 · "Domino's Pizza misses US sales estimates as consumers pull back spending" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:39.292Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-28: Domino's Shares Fall After Q1 Misses Revenue as U.S. Sales Slump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dominos-shares-fall-q1-misses-152009928.html))

- 2025-11-04: Domino’s reveals dip in orders after price hikes ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/domino-reveals-dip-orders-price-111937111.html))

- 2026-03-10: Domino’s orders fall after ‘difficult’ year for consumers and prices rise ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/domino-orders-fall-difficult-consumers-100729851.html))

- 2026-04-27: Domino's stock falls after Q1 earnings, sales growth miss expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dominos-stock-falls-after-q1-earnings-sales-growth-miss-expectations-120821453.html))

- 2026-05-06: Domino's Pizza Stock Fell After Reporting Disappointing Sales. Should Investors Buy the Dip? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dominos-pizza-stock-fell-reporting-114700391.html))

- 2026-07-20: Domino's Fiscal Second-Quarter Revenue Tops Street Views on Order Count Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/domino-apos-fiscal-second-quarter-132343847.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: $2.5B 

- FY2017: $2.8B 

- FY2018: $3.4B 

- FY2019: $3.6B 

- FY2020: $4.1B 

- FY2021: $4.4B 

- FY2022: $4.5B 

- FY2023: $4.5B 

- FY2024: $4.7B 

- FY2025: $4.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 40%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: 31.0% 

- FY2017: 31.1% 

- FY2018: 37.9% 

- FY2019: 38.8% 

- FY2020: 38.7% 

- FY2021: 38.7% 

- FY2022: 36.3% 

- FY2023: 38.6% 

- FY2024: 39.3% 

- FY2025: 40.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 4.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: revenue 4939994000; grossProfit 1973560000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DPZ.US: Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a pizza company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. It offers pizzas under the Domino's brand name through company-owned and franchised stores. The company also provides bread products, wings, boneless chicken, pastas, oven-baked sandwiches, soft drink products and desserts. In addition, it offers parmesan stuffed crust pizza; spicy chicken bacon ranch specialty pizza; and garlic, and cinnamon bread bites, as well as croissant, chocolate volcano, and chicken burst pizzas. Domino's Pizza, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.6% to 40% during 2023–25; it earns 72.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 38.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.2003827365869333],[2017,0.9857177061827634],[2018,1.0696273769410545],[2019,0.716793497410957],[2020,0.7358656005493762],[2021,0.692702248682146],[2022,0.6116932497173776],[2023,0.6435903164445748],[2024,0.6854556461672049],[2025,0.840686060217182]]; median 0.7263295489801667. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 4.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 95.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2016: growth capex 14411157.093045928; upkeep 44143842.90695407; owner earnings 208674157.09304592. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0690605741209254.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2017: growth capex 18145511.62509072; upkeep 71865488.37490928; owner earnings 250408511.62509072. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07246363754702559.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2018: growth capex 38950600.42049241; upkeep 80937399.57950759; owner earnings 334699600.4204924. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11637480406776013.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2019: growth capex 13948019.26316087; upkeep 71616980.73683913; owner earnings 389022019.2631609. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03585406113921146.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2020: growth capex 23730000; upkeep 65038000; owner earnings 491296000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04830082068651078.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2021: growth capex 21249000; upkeep 72923000; owner earnings 510467000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04162658898616365.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2022: growth capex 6983000; upkeep 80251000; owner earnings 452263000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.015440131074175866.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 105396000; owner earnings 494362000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: growth capex 25153000; upkeep 87732000; owner earnings 584170000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04305767156820788.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: growth capex 26655195.314620137; upkeep 93902804.68537986; owner earnings 601428195.3146201. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04431982990201553.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Incremental return on capital 0.9560948582675306, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,73925000],[2017,84298000],[2018,92166000],[2019,105715000],[2020,121925000],[2021,139399000],[2022,157531000],[2023,169772000],[2024,209945000],[2025,236861000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 357697000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DPZ.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.507 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our earnings and business growth strategies depend on the success of our franchisees" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-23); Our earnings and business growth strategies depend on the success of our franchisees

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 18.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05498906402467919. Price 303.09; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.1420265772571803 → FY2025 17.566283479729307. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $169.24 per share

- 2016-11: $168.04 per share

- 2016-12: $159.24 per share

- 2017-01: $174.54 per share

- 2017-02: $189.81 per share

- 2017-03: $184.30 per share

- 2017-04: $181.39 per share

- 2017-05: $211.72 per share

- 2017-06: $211.53 per share

- 2017-07: $186.50 per share

- 2017-08: $182.26 per share

- 2017-09: $198.55 per share

- 2017-10: $183.00 per share

- 2017-11: $186.16 per share

- 2017-12: $188.96 per share

- 2018-01: $216.85 per share

- 2018-02: $222.41 per share

- 2018-03: $233.56 per share

- 2018-04: $241.73 per share

- 2018-05: $251.48 per share

- 2018-06: $282.17 per share

- 2018-07: $262.66 per share

- 2018-08: $298.56 per share

- 2018-09: $294.80 per share

- 2018-10: $268.79 per share

- 2018-11: $277.32 per share

- 2018-12: $247.99 per share

- 2019-01: $283.73 per share

- 2019-02: $250.94 per share

- 2019-03: $258.10 per share

- 2019-04: $270.58 per share

- 2019-05: $279.50 per share

- 2019-06: $278.28 per share

- 2019-07: $244.53 per share

- 2019-08: $226.84 per share

- 2019-09: $244.59 per share

- 2019-10: $271.62 per share

- 2019-11: $294.30 per share

- 2019-12: $293.78 per share

- 2020-01: $281.75 per share

- 2020-02: $339.46 per share

- 2020-03: $324.07 per share

- 2020-04: $361.93 per share

- 2020-05: $385.84 per share

- 2020-06: $369.44 per share

- 2020-07: $386.61 per share

- 2020-08: $408.96 per share

- 2020-09: $425.28 per share

- 2020-10: $378.32 per share

- 2020-11: $392.57 per share

- 2020-12: $383.46 per share

- 2021-01: $370.76 per share

- 2021-02: $346.51 per share

- 2021-03: $367.79 per share

- 2021-04: $422.34 per share

- 2021-05: $426.87 per share

- 2021-06: $466.49 per share

- 2021-07: $525.49 per share

- 2021-08: $516.89 per share

- 2021-09: $476.96 per share

- 2021-10: $488.97 per share

- 2021-11: $524.14 per share

- 2021-12: $564.33 per share

- 2022-01: $454.65 per share

- 2022-02: $432.21 per share

- 2022-03: $407.01 per share

- 2022-04: $338.00 per share

- 2022-05: $363.17 per share

- 2022-06: $389.71 per share

- 2022-07: $392.11 per share

- 2022-08: $371.86 per share

- 2022-09: $310.20 per share

- 2022-10: $332.24 per share

- 2022-11: $388.73 per share

- 2022-12: $346.40 per share

- 2023-01: $353.00 per share

- 2023-02: $294.01 per share

- 2023-03: $329.87 per share

- 2023-04: $317.47 per share

- 2023-05: $289.85 per share

- 2023-06: $336.99 per share

- 2023-07: $396.74 per share

- 2023-08: $387.40 per share

- 2023-09: $378.79 per share

- 2023-10: $338.99 per share

- 2023-11: $392.89 per share

- 2023-12: $412.23 per share

- 2024-01: $426.22 per share

- 2024-02: $448.35 per share

- 2024-03: $496.88 per share

- 2024-04: $529.27 per share

- 2024-05: $508.58 per share

- 2024-06: $516.33 per share

- 2024-07: $428.70 per share

- 2024-08: $414.21 per share

- 2024-09: $430.14 per share

- 2024-10: $413.73 per share

- 2024-11: $476.19 per share

- 2024-12: $419.76 per share

- 2025-01: $449.12 per share

- 2025-02: $489.71 per share

- 2025-03: $459.45 per share

- 2025-04: $490.37 per share

- 2025-05: $473.82 per share

- 2025-06: $450.60 per share

- 2025-07: $463.21 per share

- 2025-08: $458.30 per share

- 2025-09: $431.71 per share

- 2025-10: $398.46 per share

- 2025-11: $419.63 per share

- 2025-12: $416.82 per share

- 2026-01: $410.33 per share

- 2026-02: $402.51 per share

- 2026-03: $358.79 per share

- 2026-04: $339.42 per share

- 2026-05: $310.58 per share

- 2026-06: $296.04 per share

- 2026-07: $347.44 per share

- 2026-08: $342.06 per share

- 2026-09: $299.61 per share

- 2026-10: $296.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $40.58 per share, central $46.18 per share, high $53.63 per share

- FY2017: low $50.31 per share, central $57.25 per share, high $66.49 per share

- FY2018: low $73.08 per share, central $83.16 per share, high $96.57 per share

- FY2019: low $87.56 per share, central $99.25 per share, high $114.80 per share

- FY2020: low $112.87 per share, central $128.13 per share, high $148.45 per share

- FY2021: low $137.46 per share, central $156.19 per share, high $181.12 per share

- FY2022: low $196.22 per share, central $286.25 per share, high $336.45 per share

- FY2023: low $203.47 per share, central $296.49 per share, high $348.38 per share

- FY2024: low $231.43 per share, central $336.40 per share, high $394.94 per share

- FY2025: low $255.23 per share, central $367.84 per share, high $430.64 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:47.333Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062321/dpz-20251228.htm); period 2025-12-28, filed 2026-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.