Margins varied 670.8% around their average (limit 35%).
- 10y median
- 8.9%
- Worst year
- -31.5%
- Latest · LTM
- 13.0%
# Dynatrace Holdings LLC (DT.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DT Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:06.901Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2027. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $63.73 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $13.28 per share, central $14.61 per share, high $16.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value $14.61 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:06.901Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 4.2% at the stated quote. About 4.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational) - operating margin variation exceeds 0.35 - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 1 - Years with a net loss: 2 - Operating margin variation: 6.71× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2018: -0.05× - FY2019: -0.17× - FY2020: -0.32× - FY2021: 0.13× - FY2022: 0.09× - FY2023: 0.08× - FY2024: 0.09× - FY2025: 0.11× - FY2026: 0.13× - LTM to Jun 2026: 0.13× ### moat: fail - Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%. - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 5.6% - ROIC, second-lowest year: -9.2% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 81.3% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 81.4% - Years with nonpositive capital: 6 - Capital spending / revenue: 1.9% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.9% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2018: -13.2% - FY2019: -4.7% - FY2020: -9.2% - FY2021: 5.8% - FY2022: 3.6% - FY2023: 5.5% - FY2024: 6.1% - FY2025: 72.7% - FY2026: 67.7% - LTM to Jun 2026: >100% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.13× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.1B - Net income, five-year total: $961M - Return on incremental invested capital: 58.0% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.6 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 36.8% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 1.75× - FY2023: 1.31× - FY2024: 1.18× - FY2025: 1.05× - FY2026: 1.00× ### management: pass - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -4.7% vs 67.7% - Per-share earnings: 0.00 to 0.54 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.2% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.2% - Per-share value growth: 111.1% - Per-share value change: $0.53 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.00 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.54 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.37 - Average buyback yield: 0.9% - Buyback history: 6 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $517M - ROIC, first three-year median: -4.7% - ROIC, last three-year median: 67.7% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: $0.00 - FY2018: $0.03 - FY2019: -$0.49 - FY2020: -$1.56 - FY2021: $0.26 - FY2022: $0.18 - FY2023: $0.37 - FY2024: $0.52 - FY2025: $1.59 - FY2026: $0.54 ### accounting: pass - stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow - Sloan accruals: -9.0% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98× - Restructuring years, last five: 2 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 53.6% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 3.44× - Accounting red flags: 1 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.53× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -5.0% - FY2018: -5.8% - FY2019: -14.5% - FY2020: -13.3% - FY2021: -6.4% - FY2022: -7.8% - FY2023: -8.9% - FY2024: -6.6% - FY2025: 0.6% - FY2026: -9.0% ## Holders - [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Price needs cash profits to grow 22.7% a year for ten years · sales +3.8% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:39.562Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 22.7% a year for ten years - 2025-05-14: Dynatrace Earnings Top Views. Fiscal 2026 Guidance Above Expectations. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/17659f8d-e9c6-3d52-af8d-d9ac32551c6e/dynatrace-earnings-top-views..html)) - 2026-05-13: Dynatrace stock slides 10%: Q4 earnings fail to defend AI, rivals hurting price power ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4592147-dynatrace-stock-slides-10-q4-earnings-fail-to-defend-ai-rivals-hurting-price-power?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news)) - 2026-07-10: Dynatrace Stock Outlook Hinges on ARR, AI and Platform Wins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dynatrace-stock-outlook-hinges-arr-172400148.html)) - 2026-08-11: Dynatrace Says AI Workloads Fuel Observability Demand, Consumption Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/dynatrace-says-ai-workloads-fuel-080212536.html)) - 2026-09-04: Dynatrace Gaining on Strong Earnings, Raised Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dynatrace-gaining-strong-earnings-raised-121619606.html)) ### Sales · FY2026–2027 sales +3.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm; observed 2026-05-20. - FY2018: $398M - FY2019: $431M - FY2020: $546M - FY2021: $704M - FY2022: $929M - FY2023: $1.2B - FY2024: $1.4B - FY2025: $1.7B - FY2026: $2.0B - FY2027: $2.1B ### Gross margin · FY2027 gross margin 81.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm; observed 2026-05-20. - FY2018: 75.7% - FY2019: 75.2% - FY2020: 76.4% - FY2021: 81.8% - FY2022: 81.4% - FY2023: 80.8% - FY2024: 81.4% - FY2025: 81.2% - FY2026: 81.6% - FY2027: 81.4% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in software application; annual sales are USD 2 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); FY2026: revenue 2018387000; grossProfit 1646127000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DT.US: Dynatrace, Inc. engages in the advancement of observability for digital businesses, which transforms the complexity of modern digital ecosystems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates Dynatrace, an AI-powered observability platform, which provides solutions, including infrastructure, application, threat, and AI observability; digital experience; log analytics; application security; software delivery; and business analytics. It also offers implementation, consulting, and training services. The company markets its products through a combination of global direct sales team and a network of partners, including global system integrators (GSIs), cloud providers, resellers and technology alliance partners. It serves customers in various industries, including banking, financial services, government, insurance, retail and wholesale, transportation, and software. Dynatrace, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 81.2% to 81.6% during 2024–26; it earns 5.6% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 81.4%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 81.2%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 81.6%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,-0.1320703007952057],[2019,-0.046767001713911176],[2020,-0.0920463661381226],[2021,0.057539731053876025],[2022,0.03621749641409463],[2023,0.0552432946576899],[2024,0.06146976225637617],[2025,0.7268967137671766],[2026,0.6770793755451793],[2027,2.018773602074708]]; median 0.05639151285578296. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices Kept about a 81% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.8184699840371623],[2022,0.8140008284513877],[2023,0.8076087800920132]]; range within 2 percentage points. ### Where the cash goes Spends 5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 58% on new investment. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13876000; owner earnings 71839000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 15229000; owner earnings 76231000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 14076000; owner earnings 122602000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 17695000; owner earnings 91632000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 21540000; owner earnings 141030000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 26459000; owner earnings 183113000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 26106000; owner earnings 505682000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); FY2026: growth capex 8114000; upkeep 24059000; owner earnings 162669000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04988043204298299. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); Incremental return on capital 0.579857763208834, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,22247000],[2022,39402000],[2023,50745000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); FY2026: cash repurchases 478708000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0.6% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.581 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 22.7% yearly over ten years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3187203688914212. Price 63.73; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2019-08: $22.98 per share - 2019-09: $18.67 per share - 2019-10: $20.23 per share - 2019-11: $26.57 per share - 2019-12: $25.30 per share - 2020-01: $31.31 per share - 2020-02: $32.30 per share - 2020-03: $23.84 per share - 2020-04: $29.85 per share - 2020-05: $38.47 per share - 2020-06: $40.60 per share - 2020-07: $41.83 per share - 2020-08: $44.23 per share - 2020-09: $41.02 per share - 2020-10: $35.31 per share - 2020-11: $38.02 per share - 2020-12: $43.27 per share - 2021-01: $41.51 per share - 2021-02: $49.76 per share - 2021-03: $48.24 per share - 2021-04: $52.04 per share - 2021-05: $51.74 per share - 2021-06: $58.42 per share - 2021-07: $63.87 per share - 2021-08: $68.73 per share - 2021-09: $70.97 per share - 2021-10: $75.00 per share - 2021-11: $62.85 per share - 2021-12: $60.35 per share - 2022-01: $54.86 per share - 2022-02: $44.42 per share - 2022-03: $47.10 per share - 2022-04: $38.36 per share - 2022-05: $37.67 per share - 2022-06: $39.44 per share - 2022-07: $37.63 per share - 2022-08: $38.18 per share - 2022-09: $34.81 per share - 2022-10: $35.24 per share - 2022-11: $38.75 per share - 2022-12: $38.30 per share - 2023-01: $38.43 per share - 2023-02: $42.53 per share - 2023-03: $42.30 per share - 2023-04: $42.28 per share - 2023-05: $50.99 per share - 2023-06: $51.47 per share - 2023-07: $54.69 per share - 2023-08: $48.20 per share - 2023-09: $46.73 per share - 2023-10: $44.71 per share - 2023-11: $53.55 per share - 2023-12: $54.69 per share - 2024-01: $57.00 per share - 2024-02: $49.55 per share - 2024-03: $46.44 per share - 2024-04: $45.31 per share - 2024-05: $45.73 per share - 2024-06: $44.74 per share - 2024-07: $43.92 per share - 2024-08: $50.62 per share - 2024-09: $53.47 per share - 2024-10: $53.80 per share - 2024-11: $56.19 per share - 2024-12: $54.35 per share - 2025-01: $57.75 per share - 2025-02: $57.25 per share - 2025-03: $47.15 per share - 2025-04: $46.97 per share - 2025-05: $54.01 per share - 2025-06: $55.21 per share - 2025-07: $52.61 per share - 2025-08: $50.60 per share - 2025-09: $48.45 per share - 2025-10: $50.57 per share - 2025-11: $44.56 per share - 2025-12: $43.34 per share - 2026-01: $38.09 per share - 2026-02: $35.92 per share - 2026-03: $36.98 per share - 2026-04: $36.21 per share - 2026-05: $42.59 per share - 2026-06: $43.91 per share - 2026-07: $44.32 per share - 2026-08: $54.59 per share - 2026-09: $57.74 per share - 2026-10: $63.73 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2021: low $5.76 per share, central $6.41 per share, high $7.27 per share - FY2022: low $4.97 per share, central $5.45 per share, high $6.08 per share - FY2023: low $6.11 per share, central $6.70 per share, high $7.48 per share - FY2024: low $9.06 per share, central $9.94 per share, high $11.10 per share - FY2025: low $11.38 per share, central $12.46 per share, high $13.90 per share - FY2026: low $12.57 per share, central $13.79 per share, high $15.41 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773383/000177338326000019/dt-20260331.htm); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-20. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
DT · US
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 670.8% around their average (limit 35%).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 5.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -9.2% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $1.13 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 0 to 0.54, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -9% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 1.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.94 USD.
| Value range | $13.28 – $16.37 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $14.61 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 63.73 / 14.61 = -336.3% |
| Return / year | About 4.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 0.88/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 3.68/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |