# Duke Energy (DUK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DUK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:43.515Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $118.88 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $67.12 per share, central $81.92 per share, high $95.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value $81.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:43.515Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.8% at the stated quote. About 7.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.27×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.28×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 14.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 14.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 40.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.0%

- FY2017: 5.3%

- FY2018: 4.9%

- FY2019: 5.5%

- FY2020: 4.9%

- FY2021: 5.2%

- FY2022: 5.3%

- FY2023: 5.8%

- FY2024: 6.1%

- FY2025: 6.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.69×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $13B

- Net income, five-year total: $18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 7.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.86×

- FY2024: 0.90×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.0% vs 6.1%

- Per-share earnings: 4.12 to 5.84 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Market cap gain: $37B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.5%

- Per-share value change: $1.72

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.84

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $3.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $32B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.86

- FY2017: $4.37

- FY2018: $3.77

- FY2019: $5.14

- FY2020: $1.87

- FY2021: $4.65

- FY2022: $3.31

- FY2023: $3.68

- FY2024: $5.84

- FY2025: $6.39

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.85×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.37×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.1%

- FY2017: -2.6%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -2.8%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -2.8%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: -4.0%

- FY2024: -4.2%

- FY2025: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.3% a year for ten years · sales +3.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.443Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: Earnings call transcript: Duke Energy beats Q2 2025 forecasts, stock rises ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-duke-energy-beats-q2-2025-forecasts-stock-rises-93CH-4171008))

- 2026-02-10: Duke Energy Beats 2025 EPS Guidance and Extends Growth Outlook Through 2030 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-beats-2025-eps-134300586.html))

- 2026-04-16: Duke Energy Seeks Rate Hike After Winter Power Purchases Spike Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/duke-energy-seeks-rate-hike-014017327.html))

- 2026-06-04: Duke Energy CEO sees data centers sparking power growth at 10x historic pace ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4600498-duke-energy-ceo-sees-data-centers-sparking-power-growth-at-10x-historic-pace?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-19: Duke Energy (DUK) Stock Could Be 29% Overvalued After Rate Case Pushback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/duke-energy-duk-stock-could-070854788.html))

- 2026-08-16: Duke Energy (DUK) Stock Could Be 27% Overvalued Following $10b Equity Plans ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/duke-energy-duk-stock-could-180837611.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000014/duk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $24B 

- FY2018: $25B 

- FY2019: $25B 

- FY2020: $23B 

- FY2021: $25B 

- FY2022: $29B 

- FY2023: $29B 

- FY2024: $30B 

- FY2025: $32B 

- FY2026: $33B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 31.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000014/duk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 42.3% 

- FY2017: 45.4% 

- FY2018: 42.9% 

- FY2019: 46.1% 

- FY2020: 48.6% 

- FY2021: 48.2% 

- FY2022: 45.1% 

- FY2023: 47.3% 

- FY2024: 50.1% 

- FY2025: 31.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated electric; annual sales are USD 32.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000014/duk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 32237000000; grossProfit 10174000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DUK.US: Duke Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I); and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). The EU&I segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to customers in the Southeast and Midwest regions. It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewables, and nuclear fuel. This segment also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving entities. The GU&I segment distributes natural gas to customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas sectors; and invests in pipeline transmission projects, renewable natural gas projects, and natural gas storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2006. Duke Energy Corporation was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 31.6% to 50.1% during 2023–25; it earns 5.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 50.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000014/duk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05016237104228299],[2017,0.05296551978477131],[2018,0.04879824860429718],[2019,0.05545872650950135],[2020,0.04942797205821925],[2021,0.052075020283430244],[2022,0.053288089232723344],[2023,0.058360343557315265],[2024,0.060548852465028925],[2025,0.061665601067409856]]; median 0.05312680450874733. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 7.8% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 2743460092.648945; upkeep 5308539907.351055; owner earnings 1796460092.6489449. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5271478080003518.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 3321797975.653225; upkeep 6067202024.346775; owner earnings 1294797975.653225. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.5654951877549697.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 4725000000; upkeep 4990000000; owner earnings 3579000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3202011735121542.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 5524000000; upkeep 5843000000; owner earnings 2550000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.1662745098039218.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 5424466201.838504; upkeep 6855533798.161496; owner earnings 4073466201.838504. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3316585760280137.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000014/duk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 7650190088.92339; upkeep 6373809911.07661; owner earnings 4918190088.92339. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.555488899494335.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Incremental return on capital 0.07813838304645213, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,2332000000],[2017,2450000000],[2018,2471000000],[2019,2668000000],[2020,2812000000],[2021,3114000000],[2022,3179000000],[2023,3244000000],[2024,3213000000],[2025,3300000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DUK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.131 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"The availability of adequate interstate pipeline transportation capacity and natural gas supply may decrease." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000014/duk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); The availability of adequate interstate pipeline transportation capacity and natural gas supply may decrease.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09154776998028447. Price 118.88; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.4207492795389049 → FY2025 6.329716974161378. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $80.02 per share

- 2016-11: $73.77 per share

- 2016-12: $77.62 per share

- 2017-01: $78.54 per share

- 2017-02: $82.55 per share

- 2017-03: $82.01 per share

- 2017-04: $82.50 per share

- 2017-05: $85.68 per share

- 2017-06: $83.59 per share

- 2017-07: $85.12 per share

- 2017-08: $87.30 per share

- 2017-09: $83.92 per share

- 2017-10: $88.31 per share

- 2017-11: $89.18 per share

- 2017-12: $84.11 per share

- 2018-01: $78.50 per share

- 2018-02: $75.34 per share

- 2018-03: $77.47 per share

- 2018-04: $80.16 per share

- 2018-05: $77.16 per share

- 2018-06: $79.08 per share

- 2018-07: $81.62 per share

- 2018-08: $81.24 per share

- 2018-09: $80.02 per share

- 2018-10: $82.63 per share

- 2018-11: $88.57 per share

- 2018-12: $86.30 per share

- 2019-01: $87.78 per share

- 2019-02: $89.66 per share

- 2019-03: $90.00 per share

- 2019-04: $91.12 per share

- 2019-05: $85.61 per share

- 2019-06: $88.24 per share

- 2019-07: $86.72 per share

- 2019-08: $92.74 per share

- 2019-09: $95.86 per share

- 2019-10: $94.26 per share

- 2019-11: $88.17 per share

- 2019-12: $91.21 per share

- 2020-01: $97.63 per share

- 2020-02: $91.70 per share

- 2020-03: $80.88 per share

- 2020-04: $84.66 per share

- 2020-05: $85.63 per share

- 2020-06: $79.89 per share

- 2020-07: $84.74 per share

- 2020-08: $80.34 per share

- 2020-09: $88.56 per share

- 2020-10: $92.11 per share

- 2020-11: $92.66 per share

- 2020-12: $91.56 per share

- 2021-01: $94.00 per share

- 2021-02: $85.59 per share

- 2021-03: $96.53 per share

- 2021-04: $100.69 per share

- 2021-05: $100.22 per share

- 2021-06: $98.72 per share

- 2021-07: $105.11 per share

- 2021-08: $104.66 per share

- 2021-09: $97.59 per share

- 2021-10: $102.01 per share

- 2021-11: $97.01 per share

- 2021-12: $104.90 per share

- 2022-01: $105.06 per share

- 2022-02: $100.41 per share

- 2022-03: $111.66 per share

- 2022-04: $110.16 per share

- 2022-05: $112.52 per share

- 2022-06: $107.21 per share

- 2022-07: $109.93 per share

- 2022-08: $106.91 per share

- 2022-09: $93.02 per share

- 2022-10: $93.18 per share

- 2022-11: $99.93 per share

- 2022-12: $102.99 per share

- 2023-01: $102.45 per share

- 2023-02: $94.26 per share

- 2023-03: $96.47 per share

- 2023-04: $98.88 per share

- 2023-05: $89.29 per share

- 2023-06: $89.74 per share

- 2023-07: $93.62 per share

- 2023-08: $88.80 per share

- 2023-09: $88.26 per share

- 2023-10: $88.89 per share

- 2023-11: $92.28 per share

- 2023-12: $97.04 per share

- 2024-01: $95.83 per share

- 2024-02: $91.83 per share

- 2024-03: $96.71 per share

- 2024-04: $98.26 per share

- 2024-05: $103.57 per share

- 2024-06: $100.23 per share

- 2024-07: $109.27 per share

- 2024-08: $113.95 per share

- 2024-09: $115.30 per share

- 2024-10: $115.27 per share

- 2024-11: $117.05 per share

- 2024-12: $107.74 per share

- 2025-01: $111.99 per share

- 2025-02: $117.49 per share

- 2025-03: $121.97 per share

- 2025-04: $122.02 per share

- 2025-05: $117.72 per share

- 2025-06: $118.00 per share

- 2025-07: $121.64 per share

- 2025-08: $122.49 per share

- 2025-09: $123.75 per share

- 2025-10: $124.30 per share

- 2025-11: $123.94 per share

- 2025-12: $117.21 per share

- 2026-01: $121.35 per share

- 2026-02: $130.85 per share

- 2026-03: $130.94 per share

- 2026-04: $129.55 per share

- 2026-05: $122.73 per share

- 2026-06: $126.58 per share

- 2026-07: $125.43 per share

- 2026-08: $119.91 per share

- 2026-09: $114.01 per share

- 2026-10: $118.19 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $14.94 per share, central $17.00 per share, high $19.75 per share

- FY2017: low $15.67 per share, central $18.30 per share, high $21.28 per share

- FY2018: low $16.09 per share, central $18.77 per share, high $21.82 per share

- FY2021: low $18.84 per share, central $21.43 per share, high $24.89 per share

- FY2022: low $22.01 per share, central $25.58 per share, high $29.75 per share

- FY2024: low $40.27 per share, central $48.57 per share, high $56.58 per share

- FY2025: low $65.05 per share, central $79.39 per share, high $92.55 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:29.179Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000014/duk-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.