# DexCom (DXCM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DXCM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:14.930Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $87.71 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $30.47 per share, central $41.43 per share, high $47.82 per share. Buy at or below the central value $41.43 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:14.930Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.06×

- FY2018: -0.18×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -15.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 63.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 60.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -15.3%

- FY2018: -52.4%

- FY2019: 28.1%

- FY2020: 45.1%

- FY2021: 15.6%

- FY2022: 19.0%

- FY2023: 23.8%

- FY2024: 23.4%

- FY2025: 33.2%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 43.4%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 27.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 19.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.31×

- FY2022: 0.80×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -26.0% vs 23.8%

- Per-share earnings: -0.18 to 1.40 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: $20B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $1.58

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.90

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $199M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -26.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.20

- FY2017: -$0.15

- FY2018: -$0.36

- FY2019: $0.27

- FY2020: $1.17

- FY2021: $0.51

- FY2022: $0.80

- FY2023: $1.27

- FY2024: $1.40

- FY2025: $2.06

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 11.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -30.2%

- FY2017: -15.7%

- FY2018: -13.1%

- FY2019: -8.9%

- FY2020: 0.4%

- FY2021: -4.6%

- FY2022: -6.1%

- FY2023: -3.3%

- FY2024: -6.4%

- FY2025: -9.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Oct 2021 · "Dexcom Stock, Down 15%, Is Haunted By Its 'Surprisingly Cautious' Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.811Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-16: DexCom (NasdaqGS:DXCM) Gains FDA Clearance For Dexcom G7 System ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dexcom-nasdaqgs-dxcm-gains-fda-173717486.html))

- 2025-05-05: DexCom (DXCM) Jumps 15% After Q1 Revenue Beat, $750M Buyback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dexcom-dxcm-jumps-15-q1-132101404.html))

- 2025-06-20: DXCM's Access Gains and Operational Strength Offset Margin Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dxcms-access-gains-operational-strength-132500032.html))

- 2025-10-31: Dexcom Stock, Down 15%, Is Haunted By Its 'Surprisingly Cautious' Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/25417c41-e54b-39d1-b605-e6b13a940a3d/dexcom-stock%2C-down-15%25%2C-is.html))

- 2026-05-01: DexCom reiterates $5.16B-$5.25B 2026 revenue outlook while raising operating margin to 23%-23.5% ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4583525-dexcom-reiterates-5_16b-5_25b-2026-revenue-outlook-while-raising-operating-margin-to-23?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-31: Dexcom tweaks full-year outlook after reporting 13% growth in Q2 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/dexcom-tweaks-full-outlook-reporting-152024455.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $719M 

- FY2018: $1.0B 

- FY2019: $1.5B 

- FY2020: $1.9B 

- FY2021: $2.4B 

- FY2022: $2.9B 

- FY2023: $3.6B 

- FY2024: $4.0B 

- FY2025: $4.7B 

- FY2026: $5.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 62.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 68.5% 

- FY2018: 64.4% 

- FY2019: 63.1% 

- FY2020: 66.4% 

- FY2021: 68.6% 

- FY2022: 64.7% 

- FY2023: 63.2% 

- FY2024: 60.5% 

- FY2025: 60.1% 

- FY2026: 62.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in medical devices; annual sales are USD 4.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 4662000000; grossProfit 2801900000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DXCM.US: DexCom, Inc., a medical device company, focuses on the design, development, and commercialization of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for the management of diabetes and metabolic health in the United States and internationally. The company offers Dexcom G7 and G7 15 Day, an integrated continuous glucose monitoring system; Dexcom G6, a CGM system; Dexcom ONE+ to replace fingerstick blood glucose testing for diabetes treatment decisions; Stelo, a biosensor designed for adults with prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin; Dexcom Share, a remote monitoring system; and Dexcom Follow application. It markets its products directly to endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 60.1% to 63.2% during 2023–25; it earns 23.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 63.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 60.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 60.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.15282203004096495],[2018,-0.523761565836299],[2019,0.28130910089211547],[2020,0.4507826610475617],[2021,0.15565529745130602],[2022,0.19028872491164406],[2023,0.2381199005609383],[2024,0.2335551111562086],[2025,0.33160018436826005],[2026,0.4342533794296383]]; median 0.23583750585857344. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 13.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 27.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 86494019.48374125; upkeep 93505980.51625875; owner earnings 56294019.48374125. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5364690650437978.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 103928019.09868984; upkeep 95071980.90131016; owner earnings 465628019.09868985. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22319966762279891.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 138337970.3786713; upkeep 250862029.6213287; owner earnings 68037970.37867129. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.033246577003094.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 139608496.7866675; upkeep 225191503.2133325; owner earnings 271908496.78666747. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5134392578257707.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 50600000; upkeep 186000000; owner earnings 541500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09344413665743305.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 141100000; upkeep 217700000; owner earnings 576200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24488024991322457.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 111700000; upkeep 251800000; owner earnings 836300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1335645103431783.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Incremental return on capital 0.27869860953517206, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,1230600000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 500000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DXCM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.262 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our products may not achieve or maintain market acceptance." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Our products may not achieve or maintain market acceptance.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 16.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23255282486724432. Price 87.71; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.18187212612692308 → FY2025 2.0623921085080146. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $19.56 per share

- 2016-11: $16.32 per share

- 2016-12: $14.93 per share

- 2017-01: $19.79 per share

- 2017-02: $19.54 per share

- 2017-03: $21.18 per share

- 2017-04: $19.49 per share

- 2017-05: $16.71 per share

- 2017-06: $18.29 per share

- 2017-07: $16.65 per share

- 2017-08: $18.65 per share

- 2017-09: $12.23 per share

- 2017-10: $11.24 per share

- 2017-11: $14.61 per share

- 2017-12: $14.35 per share

- 2018-01: $14.55 per share

- 2018-02: $14.04 per share

- 2018-03: $18.54 per share

- 2018-04: $18.30 per share

- 2018-05: $22.00 per share

- 2018-06: $23.75 per share

- 2018-07: $23.78 per share

- 2018-08: $36.10 per share

- 2018-09: $35.76 per share

- 2018-10: $33.19 per share

- 2018-11: $32.40 per share

- 2018-12: $29.95 per share

- 2019-01: $35.26 per share

- 2019-02: $34.83 per share

- 2019-03: $29.78 per share

- 2019-04: $30.27 per share

- 2019-05: $30.33 per share

- 2019-06: $37.46 per share

- 2019-07: $39.22 per share

- 2019-08: $42.90 per share

- 2019-09: $37.31 per share

- 2019-10: $38.56 per share

- 2019-11: $56.83 per share

- 2019-12: $54.69 per share

- 2020-01: $60.19 per share

- 2020-02: $69.00 per share

- 2020-03: $67.32 per share

- 2020-04: $83.80 per share

- 2020-05: $94.58 per share

- 2020-06: $101.35 per share

- 2020-07: $108.89 per share

- 2020-08: $106.35 per share

- 2020-09: $103.06 per share

- 2020-10: $79.90 per share

- 2020-11: $79.92 per share

- 2020-12: $92.43 per share

- 2021-01: $93.71 per share

- 2021-02: $99.45 per share

- 2021-03: $89.85 per share

- 2021-04: $96.53 per share

- 2021-05: $92.35 per share

- 2021-06: $106.75 per share

- 2021-07: $128.88 per share

- 2021-08: $132.36 per share

- 2021-09: $136.72 per share

- 2021-10: $155.80 per share

- 2021-11: $140.65 per share

- 2021-12: $134.24 per share

- 2022-01: $107.62 per share

- 2022-02: $103.48 per share

- 2022-03: $127.90 per share

- 2022-04: $102.15 per share

- 2022-05: $74.49 per share

- 2022-06: $74.53 per share

- 2022-07: $82.08 per share

- 2022-08: $82.21 per share

- 2022-09: $80.54 per share

- 2022-10: $120.78 per share

- 2022-11: $116.28 per share

- 2022-12: $113.24 per share

- 2023-01: $107.09 per share

- 2023-02: $111.01 per share

- 2023-03: $116.18 per share

- 2023-04: $121.34 per share

- 2023-05: $117.26 per share

- 2023-06: $128.51 per share

- 2023-07: $124.56 per share

- 2023-08: $100.98 per share

- 2023-09: $93.30 per share

- 2023-10: $88.83 per share

- 2023-11: $115.52 per share

- 2023-12: $124.09 per share

- 2024-01: $121.35 per share

- 2024-02: $115.07 per share

- 2024-03: $138.70 per share

- 2024-04: $127.39 per share

- 2024-05: $118.77 per share

- 2024-06: $113.38 per share

- 2024-07: $67.82 per share

- 2024-08: $69.34 per share

- 2024-09: $67.04 per share

- 2024-10: $70.48 per share

- 2024-11: $77.99 per share

- 2024-12: $77.77 per share

- 2025-01: $86.83 per share

- 2025-02: $88.37 per share

- 2025-03: $68.29 per share

- 2025-04: $71.38 per share

- 2025-05: $85.80 per share

- 2025-06: $87.29 per share

- 2025-07: $80.77 per share

- 2025-08: $75.34 per share

- 2025-09: $67.29 per share

- 2025-10: $58.22 per share

- 2025-11: $63.47 per share

- 2025-12: $66.37 per share

- 2026-01: $73.04 per share

- 2026-02: $73.43 per share

- 2026-03: $62.80 per share

- 2026-04: $59.55 per share

- 2026-05: $73.74 per share

- 2026-06: $67.35 per share

- 2026-07: $83.45 per share

- 2026-08: $91.06 per share

- 2026-09: $86.29 per share

- 2026-10: $85.06 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $8.41 per share, central $9.34 per share, high $9.87 per share

- FY2022: low $9.14 per share, central $10.65 per share, high $11.53 per share

- FY2023: low $17.05 per share, central $21.68 per share, high $24.38 per share

- FY2024: low $25.04 per share, central $33.17 per share, high $37.91 per share

- FY2025: low $27.03 per share, central $36.60 per share, high $42.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:03.572Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093557/000109355726000027/dxcm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.