# eBay (EBAY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EBAY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:09.487Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $122.91 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $60.86 per share, central $68.30 per share, high $78.20 per share. Buy at or below the central value $68.30 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:09.487Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.24×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.28×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.21×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 45.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 72.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 25.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 19.8%

- FY2018: 30.5%

- FY2019: 38.8%

- FY2020: 49.0%

- FY2021: 24.6%

- FY2022: 66.2%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 79.5%

- FY2025: 42.8%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 54.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $19B

- Net income, five-year total: $19B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.7% vs 79.5%

- Per-share earnings: 1.41 to 4.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -9.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -8.2%

- Market cap gain: $6.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $24B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -9.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -8.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 15.0%

- Per-share value change: $2.93

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.41

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.34

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.31

- Average buyback yield: 12.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $992M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $35B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 79.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.35

- FY2017: -$0.96

- FY2018: $2.55

- FY2019: $2.09

- FY2020: $7.89

- FY2021: $20.52

- FY2022: -$2.27

- FY2023: $5.19

- FY2024: $3.94

- FY2025: $4.34

### accounting: fail

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -0.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.57×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 27.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.08×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.97×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 18.6%

- FY2017: -16.0%

- FY2018: -0.6%

- FY2019: -7.3%

- FY2020: 16.8%

- FY2021: 41.1%

- FY2022: -16.9%

- FY2023: 1.6%

- FY2024: -2.3%

- FY2025: -0.9%

## Holders

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.9% a year for ten years · sales +8.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:40.099Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: eBay tops Q1 2025 expectations and projects FX-neutral growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebay-tops-q1-2025-expectations-143052840.html))

- 2025-07-30: EBay Stock Jumps As Accelerating Sales Growth Powers Earnings Beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/792d6988-4f75-33a4-a4ea-97b7af8c616c/ebay-stock-jumps-as.html))

- 2025-10-29: EBay Falls After Giving Weak Profit Outlook for Holiday Period ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebay-falls-giving-weak-profit-201546201.html))

- 2026-01-07: Assessing eBay (EBAY) Valuation As Flat Buyers And Margin Pressure Cloud Growth Prospects ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/assessing-ebay-ebay-valuation-flat-050803846.html))

- 2026-05-02: Why eBay (EBAY) Is Up 6.3% After Beating Q1 Targets and Boosting Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-ebay-ebay-6-3-061527662.html))

- 2026-08-06: eBay beats second-quarter expectations but mixed guidance limits share gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ebay-beats-second-quarter-expectations-104139512.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $9.9B 

- FY2018: $8.7B 

- FY2019: $7.4B 

- FY2020: $8.9B 

- FY2021: $10B 

- FY2022: $9.8B 

- FY2023: $10B 

- FY2024: $10B 

- FY2025: $11B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 72.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 77.6% 

- FY2018: 76.6% 

- FY2019: 78.7% 

- FY2020: 79.8% 

- FY2021: 74.6% 

- FY2022: 72.6% 

- FY2023: 72.0% 

- FY2024: 72.0% 

- FY2025: 71.5% 

- FY2026: 72.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet retail; annual sales are USD 11.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 11100000000; grossProfit 7931000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 71.5% to 72% during 2023–25; it earns 45.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 72%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 72%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 71.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.198115239633818],[2018,0.30489965785377976],[2019,0.3879123655525879],[2020,0.4902101274852673],[2021,0.24645868465430018],[2022,0.6620898716119828],[2023,1.0827131736510094],[2024,0.7948678623952052],[2025,0.4278054751930465],[2026,0.5408944217812498]]; median 0.4590078013391569. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 5.8% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 626000000; owner earnings 7322000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 651000000; owner earnings 2514000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 552000000; owner earnings 1834000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 494000000; owner earnings 5756000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 444000000; owner earnings 13666000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 53000000; upkeep 403000000; owner earnings 2767000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01915431875677629.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 29232711.820865333; upkeep 428767288.17913467; owner earnings 1870232711.8208654. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.015630521076922164.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 118000000; upkeep 407000000; owner earnings 2031000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05809945839487937.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,2216000000],[2017,2484000000],[2018,473000000],[2019,473000000],[2020,447000000],[2021,466000000],[2022,489000000],[2023,528000000],[2024,533000000],[2025,531000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 2500000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 10% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EBAY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 10.024 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We face significant risk of liability for the actions of our customers" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); We face significant risk of liability for the actions of our customers

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11476733679331752. Price 122.91; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.4295081967213115 → FY2025 4.339743589743589. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $28.51 per share

- 2016-11: $27.81 per share

- 2016-12: $29.69 per share

- 2017-01: $31.83 per share

- 2017-02: $33.90 per share

- 2017-03: $33.57 per share

- 2017-04: $33.41 per share

- 2017-05: $34.30 per share

- 2017-06: $34.92 per share

- 2017-07: $35.73 per share

- 2017-08: $36.13 per share

- 2017-09: $38.46 per share

- 2017-10: $37.64 per share

- 2017-11: $34.67 per share

- 2017-12: $37.74 per share

- 2018-01: $40.58 per share

- 2018-02: $42.86 per share

- 2018-03: $40.24 per share

- 2018-04: $37.88 per share

- 2018-05: $37.72 per share

- 2018-06: $36.26 per share

- 2018-07: $33.45 per share

- 2018-08: $34.61 per share

- 2018-09: $33.02 per share

- 2018-10: $29.03 per share

- 2018-11: $29.85 per share

- 2018-12: $28.07 per share

- 2019-01: $33.65 per share

- 2019-02: $37.15 per share

- 2019-03: $37.14 per share

- 2019-04: $38.75 per share

- 2019-05: $35.93 per share

- 2019-06: $39.50 per share

- 2019-07: $41.19 per share

- 2019-08: $40.29 per share

- 2019-09: $38.98 per share

- 2019-10: $35.25 per share

- 2019-11: $35.52 per share

- 2019-12: $36.11 per share

- 2020-01: $33.56 per share

- 2020-02: $34.64 per share

- 2020-03: $30.06 per share

- 2020-04: $39.83 per share

- 2020-05: $45.54 per share

- 2020-06: $52.45 per share

- 2020-07: $55.28 per share

- 2020-08: $54.78 per share

- 2020-09: $52.10 per share

- 2020-10: $47.63 per share

- 2020-11: $50.43 per share

- 2020-12: $50.25 per share

- 2021-01: $56.51 per share

- 2021-02: $56.42 per share

- 2021-03: $61.24 per share

- 2021-04: $55.79 per share

- 2021-05: $60.88 per share

- 2021-06: $70.21 per share

- 2021-07: $68.21 per share

- 2021-08: $76.74 per share

- 2021-09: $69.67 per share

- 2021-10: $76.72 per share

- 2021-11: $67.46 per share

- 2021-12: $66.50 per share

- 2022-01: $60.07 per share

- 2022-02: $54.59 per share

- 2022-03: $57.26 per share

- 2022-04: $51.92 per share

- 2022-05: $48.67 per share

- 2022-06: $41.67 per share

- 2022-07: $48.63 per share

- 2022-08: $44.13 per share

- 2022-09: $36.81 per share

- 2022-10: $39.84 per share

- 2022-11: $45.44 per share

- 2022-12: $41.47 per share

- 2023-01: $49.50 per share

- 2023-02: $45.90 per share

- 2023-03: $44.37 per share

- 2023-04: $46.43 per share

- 2023-05: $42.54 per share

- 2023-06: $44.69 per share

- 2023-07: $44.51 per share

- 2023-08: $44.78 per share

- 2023-09: $44.09 per share

- 2023-10: $39.23 per share

- 2023-11: $41.01 per share

- 2023-12: $43.62 per share

- 2024-01: $41.07 per share

- 2024-02: $47.28 per share

- 2024-03: $52.78 per share

- 2024-04: $51.54 per share

- 2024-05: $54.22 per share

- 2024-06: $53.72 per share

- 2024-07: $55.61 per share

- 2024-08: $59.10 per share

- 2024-09: $65.11 per share

- 2024-10: $57.51 per share

- 2024-11: $63.29 per share

- 2024-12: $61.95 per share

- 2025-01: $67.48 per share

- 2025-02: $64.74 per share

- 2025-03: $67.73 per share

- 2025-04: $68.16 per share

- 2025-05: $73.17 per share

- 2025-06: $74.46 per share

- 2025-07: $91.75 per share

- 2025-08: $90.61 per share

- 2025-09: $90.95 per share

- 2025-10: $81.31 per share

- 2025-11: $82.79 per share

- 2025-12: $87.10 per share

- 2026-01: $91.22 per share

- 2026-02: $90.86 per share

- 2026-03: $91.02 per share

- 2026-04: $103.48 per share

- 2026-05: $109.27 per share

- 2026-06: $111.75 per share

- 2026-07: $114.01 per share

- 2026-08: $103.56 per share

- 2026-09: $106.05 per share

- 2026-10: $116.41 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $27.17 per share, central $34.34 per share, high $39.18 per share

- FY2017: low $28.67 per share, central $35.45 per share, high $40.55 per share

- FY2018: low $24.15 per share, central $26.82 per share, high $30.37 per share

- FY2019: low $26.46 per share, central $29.69 per share, high $33.99 per share

- FY2020: low $43.97 per share, central $49.39 per share, high $56.62 per share

- FY2021: low $60.66 per share, central $67.54 per share, high $76.71 per share

- FY2022: low $68.87 per share, central $76.55 per share, high $86.79 per share

- FY2023: low $73.28 per share, central $81.10 per share, high $91.52 per share

- FY2024: low $73.38 per share, central $81.85 per share, high $93.12 per share

- FY2025: low $53.20 per share, central $59.74 per share, high $68.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:50.855Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000027/ebay-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.