# Ecolab (ECL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ECL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:10.256Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $290.81 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $85.71 per share, central $95.17 per share, high $107.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value $95.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:10.256Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.9% at the stated quote. About 4.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 22.1%

- FY2017: 25.2%

- FY2018: 16.6%

- FY2019: 16.2%

- FY2020: 24.1%

- FY2021: 17.1%

- FY2022: 17.4%

- FY2023: 22.2%

- FY2024: 27.5%

- FY2025: 25.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.18×

- FY2022: 1.21×

- FY2023: 1.11×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.87×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.1% vs 25.7%

- Per-share earnings: 4.14 to 7.28 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: $40B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.3%

- Per-share value change: $3.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.14

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.28

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.89

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $6.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $12B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 22.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.14

- FY2017: $5.12

- FY2018: $4.88

- FY2019: $5.33

- FY2020: -$4.15

- FY2021: $3.91

- FY2022: $3.81

- FY2023: $4.79

- FY2024: $7.37

- FY2025: $7.28

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.42×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.9%

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: -4.2%

- FY2019: -4.1%

- FY2020: -16.9%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -3.2%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -3.6%

## Holders

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.8% a year for ten years · sales +2.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:40.267Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-29: Ecolab Stock Down in Pre-Market Post Q2 Earnings Miss, Margins Expand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecolab-stock-down-pre-market-170200204.html))

- 2025-10-28: Ecolab Q3 profit rises 13% on pricing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecolab-q3-profit-rises-13-130332009.html))

- 2025-11-14: Ecolab Launches Integrated Cooling Program To Support Expanding AI Data Center Demand ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ecolab-launches-integrated-cooling-program-support-expanding-ai-data-center-demand))

- 2026-02-10: Ecolab forecasts 2026 profit above estimates on strong demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecolab-forecasts-2026-profit-above-140641838.html))

- 2026-03-19: Ecolab Faces Raw Material Inflation due to Higher Oil Prices, RBC Capital Markets Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/ecolab-faces-raw-material-inflation-152100444.html))

- 2026-06-19: Ecolab Inc (ECL) Raises $5 Billion to Push Into AI Data Center Cooling ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/ecolab-inc-ecl-raises-5-181936449.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: $13B 

- FY2017: $14B 

- FY2018: $15B 

- FY2019: $13B 

- FY2020: $12B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $14B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $16B 

- FY2025: $16B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 44.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: 47.9% 

- FY2017: 42.1% 

- FY2018: 41.3% 

- FY2019: 44.0% 

- FY2020: 41.5% 

- FY2021: 41.0% 

- FY2022: 38.2% 

- FY2023: 40.3% 

- FY2024: 43.5% 

- FY2025: 44.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are USD 16.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: revenue 16081200000; grossProfit 7158100000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ECL.US: Ecolab Inc. provides water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences. The Global Water segment offers water treatment and process applications, and cleaning and sanitizing solutions to manufacturing, food and beverage processing, transportation, chemical, primary metals and mining, power generation, global refining, petrochemical, pulp and paper industries. The Global Institutional & Specialty segment provides cleaning and sanitizing products to the foodservice, healthcare, hospitality, lodging, government, education and retail industries. The Global Pest Elimination segment provides pest elimination services to detect, prevent, and eliminate pests comprising rodents and insects in full-service and quick-service restaurants, food and beverage processors, hotels, grocery operations, and other commercial segments, including education, life sciences, and healthcare. The Global Life Sciences segment provides cleaning and contamination control solutions to pharmaceutical and personal care manufacturers. It offers its products under the Ecolab, Kay, Purolite, and Bioquell brand names. The company sells its products through field sales and corporate account personnel, distributors, and dealers. Ecolab Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 40.3% to 44.5% during 2023–25; it earns 22.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 40.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 44.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.22054781309663915],[2017,0.2517646814892227],[2018,0.16578144448916418],[2019,0.16196821495385633],[2020,0.24112071996291892],[2021,0.1712675387479755],[2022,0.17363720639660807],[2023,0.22236572438360946],[2024,0.27502390991152553],[2025,0.2565621695276863]]; median 0.22145676874012432. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Our adjusted gross margin increased when comparing 2025 against 2024 reflecting strong value pricing.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-23); Special (Gains) and Charges Special (gains) and charges reported on the Consolidated Statements of Income included the following items: (millions) 2025 2024 2023 Cost of sales One Ecolab $7.7 $1.9 $- Other restructuring - 3.4 22.5 Cost of sales subtotal 7.7 5.3 22.5 Special (gains) and charges O uisition, our 2025 adjusted gross margin was 44.5% compared against a 2024 adjusted gross margin of 43.5%. Our adjusted gross margin increased when comparing 2025 against 2024 reflecting strong value pricing. Excluding the impact of special (gains) and charges, our adjusted gross margin was 43.5% and 40.4% for 2024 and 2023, respectively.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 5.4% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 756800000; owner earnings 1323500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 868600000; owner earnings 1529300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 847100000; owner earnings 1520300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 731300000; owner earnings 1602900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 643000000; owner earnings 1330000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 712800000; owner earnings 1317600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 774800000; owner earnings 1521100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: growth capex 59100000; upkeep 935400000; owner earnings 2112400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02797765574701761.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: growth capex 96092647.90368748; upkeep 952207352.0963125; owner earnings 1795992647.9036875. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05350392052876631.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,427500000],[2017,448700000],[2018,496500000],[2019,552900000],[2020,560800000],[2021,566400000],[2022,602800000],[2023,617300000],[2024,664300000],[2025,753600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 783800000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ECL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.154 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our indebtedness may limit our operations" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-23); Our indebtedness may limit our operations

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 16.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2307732004148978. Price 290.81; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.4717982747179827 → FY2025 6.297309424627235. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $114.17 per share

- 2016-11: $116.73 per share

- 2016-12: $117.22 per share

- 2017-01: $120.13 per share

- 2017-02: $123.97 per share

- 2017-03: $125.34 per share

- 2017-04: $129.09 per share

- 2017-05: $132.84 per share

- 2017-06: $132.75 per share

- 2017-07: $131.67 per share

- 2017-08: $133.30 per share

- 2017-09: $128.61 per share

- 2017-10: $130.66 per share

- 2017-11: $135.92 per share

- 2017-12: $134.18 per share

- 2018-01: $137.68 per share

- 2018-02: $130.45 per share

- 2018-03: $137.07 per share

- 2018-04: $144.77 per share

- 2018-05: $142.61 per share

- 2018-06: $140.33 per share

- 2018-07: $140.70 per share

- 2018-08: $150.48 per share

- 2018-09: $156.78 per share

- 2018-10: $153.15 per share

- 2018-11: $160.49 per share

- 2018-12: $147.35 per share

- 2019-01: $158.17 per share

- 2019-02: $168.91 per share

- 2019-03: $176.54 per share

- 2019-04: $184.08 per share

- 2019-05: $184.09 per share

- 2019-06: $197.44 per share

- 2019-07: $201.73 per share

- 2019-08: $206.31 per share

- 2019-09: $198.04 per share

- 2019-10: $192.07 per share

- 2019-11: $186.67 per share

- 2019-12: $192.99 per share

- 2020-01: $196.11 per share

- 2020-02: $180.45 per share

- 2020-03: $155.83 per share

- 2020-04: $193.50 per share

- 2020-05: $212.58 per share

- 2020-06: $198.95 per share

- 2020-07: $187.08 per share

- 2020-08: $197.08 per share

- 2020-09: $199.84 per share

- 2020-10: $183.59 per share

- 2020-11: $222.15 per share

- 2020-12: $216.36 per share

- 2021-01: $204.51 per share

- 2021-02: $209.36 per share

- 2021-03: $214.07 per share

- 2021-04: $224.12 per share

- 2021-05: $215.08 per share

- 2021-06: $205.97 per share

- 2021-07: $220.83 per share

- 2021-08: $225.36 per share

- 2021-09: $208.62 per share

- 2021-10: $222.22 per share

- 2021-11: $221.47 per share

- 2021-12: $234.59 per share

- 2022-01: $189.45 per share

- 2022-02: $176.26 per share

- 2022-03: $176.56 per share

- 2022-04: $169.34 per share

- 2022-05: $163.91 per share

- 2022-06: $153.76 per share

- 2022-07: $165.17 per share

- 2022-08: $163.83 per share

- 2022-09: $144.42 per share

- 2022-10: $157.07 per share

- 2022-11: $149.83 per share

- 2022-12: $145.56 per share

- 2023-01: $154.83 per share

- 2023-02: $159.37 per share

- 2023-03: $165.53 per share

- 2023-04: $167.84 per share

- 2023-05: $165.05 per share

- 2023-06: $186.69 per share

- 2023-07: $183.14 per share

- 2023-08: $183.81 per share

- 2023-09: $169.40 per share

- 2023-10: $167.74 per share

- 2023-11: $191.73 per share

- 2023-12: $198.35 per share

- 2024-01: $198.22 per share

- 2024-02: $224.84 per share

- 2024-03: $230.90 per share

- 2024-04: $226.15 per share

- 2024-05: $232.20 per share

- 2024-06: $238.00 per share

- 2024-07: $230.69 per share

- 2024-08: $253.18 per share

- 2024-09: $255.33 per share

- 2024-10: $245.73 per share

- 2024-11: $248.77 per share

- 2024-12: $234.32 per share

- 2025-01: $250.19 per share

- 2025-02: $269.01 per share

- 2025-03: $253.52 per share

- 2025-04: $251.43 per share

- 2025-05: $265.62 per share

- 2025-06: $269.44 per share

- 2025-07: $261.76 per share

- 2025-08: $277.04 per share

- 2025-09: $273.86 per share

- 2025-10: $256.40 per share

- 2025-11: $275.16 per share

- 2025-12: $262.52 per share

- 2026-01: $281.99 per share

- 2026-02: $308.35 per share

- 2026-03: $266.02 per share

- 2026-04: $260.60 per share

- 2026-05: $256.00 per share

- 2026-06: $278.61 per share

- 2026-07: $277.63 per share

- 2026-08: $283.20 per share

- 2026-09: $274.58 per share

- 2026-10: $285.66 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $41.23 per share, central $46.88 per share, high $54.41 per share

- FY2017: low $46.14 per share, central $52.50 per share, high $60.97 per share

- FY2018: low $59.13 per share, central $72.47 per share, high $84.50 per share

- FY2019: low $48.65 per share, central $55.36 per share, high $64.29 per share

- FY2020: low $49.54 per share, central $55.88 per share, high $64.33 per share

- FY2021: low $50.65 per share, central $57.58 per share, high $66.81 per share

- FY2022: low $57.18 per share, central $64.91 per share, high $75.21 per share

- FY2023: low $60.17 per share, central $68.17 per share, high $78.82 per share

- FY2024: low $62.89 per share, central $71.11 per share, high $82.05 per share

- FY2025: low $65.51 per share, central $74.39 per share, high $86.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/31462/000110465926018357/ecl-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.