# Equifax (EFX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EFX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:11.797Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $161.26 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $81.95 per share, central $93.20 per share, high $108.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value $93.20 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:11.797Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.57×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: -0.10×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.18×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.18×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 28.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 22.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 57.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 55.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 49.0%

- FY2018: 27.6%

- FY2019: -21.2%

- FY2020: 38.0%

- FY2021: 37.4%

- FY2022: 25.9%

- FY2023: 22.4%

- FY2024: 25.3%

- FY2025: 29.3%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 29.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.14×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.03×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.28×

- FY2025: 1.37×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 45.6% vs 25.3%

- Per-share earnings: 4.04 to 4.84 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: $12B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 2.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.80

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.84

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.37

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $5.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 45.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.04

- FY2017: $4.83

- FY2018: $2.56

- FY2019: -$3.15

- FY2020: $4.24

- FY2021: $6.02

- FY2022: $5.65

- FY2023: $4.40

- FY2024: $4.84

- FY2025: $5.32

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.77×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.4%

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -8.8%

- FY2020: -4.4%

- FY2021: -5.3%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: -8.1%

## Holders

- [Nicolai Tangen](https://gigainvestors.com/AKO): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [C.T. Fitzpatrick](https://gigainvestors.com/VVP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 47% since Aug 2024 · "Equifax Q3 Outlook Pressured by Contract Signing Delays, Oppenheimer Says" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +6.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:40.644Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-22: Equifax's quarterly profit lifted by better-than-expected mortgage business ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/equifaxs-quarterly-profit-lifted-better-122251473.html))

- 2025-10-07: Equifax Cuts Prices After FICO Shakes Up Credit-Score Market ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/01ed1fce-a098-3e3f-b692-00fda68eace3/equifax-cuts-prices-after.html))

- 2026-01-06: Equifax, TransUnion stocks fall after FHFA criticism on pricing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/equifax-transunion-stocks-fall-fhfa-131640401.html))

- 2026-02-04: Equifax Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Jump 9% Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/equifax-q4-earnings-beat-estimates-155200532.html))

- 2026-07-24: Equifax Q3 Outlook Pressured by Contract Signing Delays, Oppenheimer Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/equifax-q3-outlook-pressured-contract-180019308.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $3.4B 

- FY2018: $3.4B 

- FY2019: $3.5B 

- FY2020: $4.1B 

- FY2021: $4.9B 

- FY2022: $5.1B 

- FY2023: $5.3B 

- FY2024: $5.7B 

- FY2025: $6.1B 

- FY2026: $6.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 55.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 64.0% 

- FY2018: 57.8% 

- FY2019: 56.6% 

- FY2020: 57.9% 

- FY2021: 59.8% 

- FY2022: 57.5% 

- FY2023: 55.7% 

- FY2024: 55.7% 

- FY2025: 56.4% 

- FY2026: 55.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in consulting services; annual sales are USD 6.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 6074500000; grossProfit 3428900000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.7% to 56.4% during 2023–25; it earns 28.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 55.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 55.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 56.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.4904380976527935],[2018,0.27583635035815846],[2019,-0.21170182166826462],[2020,0.38026611659564347],[2021,0.3744543704828708],[2022,0.25866665432473895],[2023,0.22430550933939994],[2024,0.2527221717370746],[2025,0.29338032216441284],[2026,0.29515239567794377]]; median 0.2846083362612857. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 927.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 167000000; owner earnings 590500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 218200000; owner earnings 660000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 6000000; upkeep 315900000; owner earnings 310500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01932367149758454.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 22000000; upkeep 399300000; owner earnings 520100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04229955777735051.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 469000000; owner earnings 764800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 53438911.79702616; upkeep 571061088.2029738; owner earnings 693738911.7970262. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07703029322458027.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 601300000; owner earnings 563800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 511500000; owner earnings 773200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 481400000; owner earnings 905800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,157600000],[2017,187400000],[2018,187900000],[2019,188700000],[2020,189500000],[2021,190000000],[2022,191100000],[2023,191800000],[2024,193200000],[2025,232800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 927500000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EFX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.645 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If our government contracts are terminated, if we are suspended from government work" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); If our government contracts are terminated, if we are suspended from government work

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09895896200452359. Price 161.26; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.9942100909842844 → FY2025 7.298952457695407. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $123.97 per share

- 2016-11: $114.45 per share

- 2016-12: $118.23 per share

- 2017-01: $117.28 per share

- 2017-02: $131.11 per share

- 2017-03: $136.74 per share

- 2017-04: $135.31 per share

- 2017-05: $136.80 per share

- 2017-06: $137.42 per share

- 2017-07: $145.44 per share

- 2017-08: $142.47 per share

- 2017-09: $105.99 per share

- 2017-10: $108.53 per share

- 2017-11: $114.12 per share

- 2017-12: $117.92 per share

- 2018-01: $124.93 per share

- 2018-02: $113.00 per share

- 2018-03: $117.81 per share

- 2018-04: $112.05 per share

- 2018-05: $113.96 per share

- 2018-06: $125.11 per share

- 2018-07: $125.50 per share

- 2018-08: $133.97 per share

- 2018-09: $130.57 per share

- 2018-10: $101.44 per share

- 2018-11: $102.67 per share

- 2018-12: $93.13 per share

- 2019-01: $107.02 per share

- 2019-02: $109.51 per share

- 2019-03: $118.50 per share

- 2019-04: $125.95 per share

- 2019-05: $120.90 per share

- 2019-06: $135.24 per share

- 2019-07: $139.09 per share

- 2019-08: $146.38 per share

- 2019-09: $140.67 per share

- 2019-10: $136.71 per share

- 2019-11: $139.64 per share

- 2019-12: $140.12 per share

- 2020-01: $149.90 per share

- 2020-02: $142.04 per share

- 2020-03: $119.45 per share

- 2020-04: $138.90 per share

- 2020-05: $153.56 per share

- 2020-06: $171.88 per share

- 2020-07: $162.56 per share

- 2020-08: $168.27 per share

- 2020-09: $156.90 per share

- 2020-10: $136.60 per share

- 2020-11: $166.90 per share

- 2020-12: $192.84 per share

- 2021-01: $177.11 per share

- 2021-02: $161.88 per share

- 2021-03: $181.13 per share

- 2021-04: $229.23 per share

- 2021-05: $235.04 per share

- 2021-06: $239.51 per share

- 2021-07: $260.60 per share

- 2021-08: $272.26 per share

- 2021-09: $253.42 per share

- 2021-10: $277.43 per share

- 2021-11: $278.65 per share

- 2021-12: $292.79 per share

- 2022-01: $239.76 per share

- 2022-02: $218.34 per share

- 2022-03: $237.10 per share

- 2022-04: $203.52 per share

- 2022-05: $202.58 per share

- 2022-06: $182.78 per share

- 2022-07: $208.91 per share

- 2022-08: $188.75 per share

- 2022-09: $171.43 per share

- 2022-10: $169.54 per share

- 2022-11: $197.37 per share

- 2022-12: $194.36 per share

- 2023-01: $222.20 per share

- 2023-02: $202.53 per share

- 2023-03: $202.84 per share

- 2023-04: $208.38 per share

- 2023-05: $208.62 per share

- 2023-06: $235.30 per share

- 2023-07: $204.08 per share

- 2023-08: $206.70 per share

- 2023-09: $183.18 per share

- 2023-10: $169.57 per share

- 2023-11: $217.71 per share

- 2023-12: $247.29 per share

- 2024-01: $244.34 per share

- 2024-02: $273.59 per share

- 2024-03: $267.52 per share

- 2024-04: $220.19 per share

- 2024-05: $231.39 per share

- 2024-06: $242.46 per share

- 2024-07: $279.37 per share

- 2024-08: $307.13 per share

- 2024-09: $293.86 per share

- 2024-10: $265.02 per share

- 2024-11: $261.56 per share

- 2024-12: $254.85 per share

- 2025-01: $274.78 per share

- 2025-02: $245.20 per share

- 2025-03: $243.56 per share

- 2025-04: $260.13 per share

- 2025-05: $264.19 per share

- 2025-06: $259.37 per share

- 2025-07: $240.23 per share

- 2025-08: $246.30 per share

- 2025-09: $256.53 per share

- 2025-10: $211.10 per share

- 2025-11: $212.37 per share

- 2025-12: $216.98 per share

- 2026-01: $201.40 per share

- 2026-02: $208.96 per share

- 2026-03: $180.07 per share

- 2026-04: $173.94 per share

- 2026-05: $165.79 per share

- 2026-06: $158.72 per share

- 2026-07: $172.62 per share

- 2026-08: $189.16 per share

- 2026-09: $137.24 per share

- 2026-10: $161.26 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $53.85 per share, central $61.19 per share, high $70.98 per share

- FY2017: low $61.59 per share, central $69.78 per share, high $80.67 per share

- FY2018: low $58.96 per share, central $66.92 per share, high $77.50 per share

- FY2019: low $59.69 per share, central $67.54 per share, high $78.00 per share

- FY2020: low $59.34 per share, central $65.72 per share, high $74.22 per share

- FY2021: low $55.89 per share, central $63.45 per share, high $73.53 per share

- FY2022: low $63.06 per share, central $77.18 per share, high $89.76 per share

- FY2023: low $62.83 per share, central $75.68 per share, high $88.02 per share

- FY2024: low $72.78 per share, central $89.18 per share, high $103.91 per share

- FY2025: low $73.29 per share, central $83.33 per share, high $96.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:53.255Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000010/efx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.