# EMCOR Group (EME.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EME

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:15.469Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $732.53 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $319.41 per share, central $450.92 per share, high $527.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value $450.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:15.469Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.3% at the stated quote. About 7.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- FY2020 operating-margin dip fully recovered the next year and stayed recovered; holding that year at the preceding margin meets the existing variation limit. Raw variation still determines the price discount.

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

- One fully recovered margin dip: Yes

- Variation with recovered dip held at prior margin: 0.33

- Recovered dip fiscal year: FY2020

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.10×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 40.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 27.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 42.7%

- FY2018: 42.8%

- FY2019: 27.6%

- FY2020: 20.0%

- FY2021: 35.6%

- FY2022: 36.2%

- FY2023: 59.5%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: 78.3%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 59.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 56.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.20×

- FY2022: 1.15×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.06×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.7% vs 78.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.97 to 21.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Market cap gain: $23B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 28.1%

- Per-share value change: $18.54

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $21.52

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 78.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.97

- FY2017: $3.81

- FY2018: $4.85

- FY2019: $5.75

- FY2020: $2.40

- FY2021: $7.06

- FY2022: $8.10

- FY2023: $13.31

- FY2024: $21.52

- FY2025: $28.19

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: -0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.02×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.69×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.1%

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: 0.3%

- FY2019: -0.6%

- FY2020: -13.3%

- FY2021: 1.2%

- FY2022: -1.7%

- FY2023: -4.0%

- FY2024: -5.2%

- FY2025: -0.3%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.8% a year for ten years · sales +16.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:41.514Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: EMCOR (NYSE:EME) Beats Q1 Sales Targets, Full-Year Outlook Slightly Exceeds Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emcor-nyse-eme-beats-q1-121901548.html))

- 2025-05-14: EME Q1 Earnings Call: Data Center and Healthcare Expansion Drive Outperformance, Tariff Risks Managed ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eme-q1-earnings-call-data-114501147.html))

- 2025-07-31: EMCOR (NYSE:EME) Surprises With Strong Q2, Full-Year Outlook Slightly Exceeds Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emcor-nyse-eme-surprises-strong-132525565.html))

- 2025-10-30: EMCOR beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; updates FY outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4511251-emcor-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-updates-fy-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-29: Emcor raises 2026 guidance to $18.5B-$19.25B revenue and $28.25-$29.75 EPS as RPO reaches $15.62B ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4582292-emcor-raises-2026-guidance-to-18_5b-19_25b-revenue-and-28_25-29_75-eps-as-rpo-reaches-15_62b?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +16.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $7.6B 

- FY2017: $7.7B 

- FY2018: $8.1B 

- FY2019: $9.2B 

- FY2020: $8.8B 

- FY2021: $9.9B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $13B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $17B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 13.7% 

- FY2017: 14.9% 

- FY2018: 14.8% 

- FY2019: 14.8% 

- FY2020: 15.9% 

- FY2021: 15.2% 

- FY2022: 14.5% 

- FY2023: 16.6% 

- FY2024: 19.0% 

- FY2025: 19.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are USD 17 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 16986421999; grossProfit 3282988000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EME.US: EMCOR Group, Inc. provides electrical and mechanical construction and facilities, building, and industrial services in the United States and the United Kingdom. It offers design, integration, installation, startup, operation, and maintenance services related to power transmission, distribution, and generation systems; energy solutions; premises electrical and lighting systems; process instrumentation; low-voltage systems; voice and data communications systems; roadway and transit lighting, signaling, and fiber optic lines; computerized traffic control systems, and signal and communication equipment; heating, ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration, and geothermal solutions; clean-room process ventilation systems; fire protection and suppression systems; plumbing, process, and piping systems; control and filtration systems; water and wastewater treatment systems; central plant heating and cooling systems; crane and rigging; millwright; and steel fabrication, erection, and welding services. The company also provides site-based operations and maintenance; facility management and maintenance; energy retrofit; military base operations support; indoor air quality; floor care and janitorial; landscaping, lot sweeping, and snow removal; vendor management and call center; installation and support for building systems; program development, management, and maintenance for energy systems; technical consulting and diagnostic; infrastructure and building projects; modification and retrofit projects; and reception, security, and catering services. In addition, it offers refinery turnaround planning and engineering; welding; overhaul and maintenance; technical; instrumentation, controls, and electrical; electrical panel design, fabrication, and installation; on-site repair and maintenance; and renewable energy services, as well as design, manufacturing, repair, and hydro blast cleaning services. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.6% to 19.3% during 2023–25; it earns 40.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.38650803030009495],[2017,0.42699429968921904],[2018,0.42808545497588946],[2019,0.27587364036400625],[2020,0.20028061007197007],[2021,0.35591804478205347],[2022,0.36232362607018714],[2023,0.5945588571226084],[2024,1.0589677999284741],[2025,0.783021952473751]]; median 0.406751164994657. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 586.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 39648000; owner earnings 222076000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 34684000; owner earnings 281021000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 43479000; owner earnings 320967000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 48432000; owner earnings 368795000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 47969000; owner earnings 191645000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 36192000; owner earnings 459776000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 49289000; owner earnings 465444000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 78404000; owner earnings 673555000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 74950000; owner earnings 1065875000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 112750000; owner earnings 1346487000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,19454000],[2017,18971000],[2018,18640000],[2019,17950000],[2020,17674000],[2021,28163000],[2022,27187000],[2023,32684000],[2024,43384000],[2025,45023000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 586258000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EME.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.7080000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Financial Risk Factors" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Financial Risk Factors

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 24.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17142052044340927. Price 732.53; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.333174742359169 → FY2025 29.825321164662014. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $60.46 per share

- 2016-11: $69.37 per share

- 2016-12: $70.76 per share

- 2017-01: $69.69 per share

- 2017-02: $61.48 per share

- 2017-03: $62.95 per share

- 2017-04: $65.74 per share

- 2017-05: $63.02 per share

- 2017-06: $65.38 per share

- 2017-07: $67.50 per share

- 2017-08: $66.04 per share

- 2017-09: $69.38 per share

- 2017-10: $80.51 per share

- 2017-11: $80.77 per share

- 2017-12: $81.75 per share

- 2018-01: $81.28 per share

- 2018-02: $76.31 per share

- 2018-03: $77.93 per share

- 2018-04: $73.59 per share

- 2018-05: $75.93 per share

- 2018-06: $76.18 per share

- 2018-07: $76.95 per share

- 2018-08: $80.10 per share

- 2018-09: $75.11 per share

- 2018-10: $70.98 per share

- 2018-11: $72.86 per share

- 2018-12: $59.69 per share

- 2019-01: $65.23 per share

- 2019-02: $72.13 per share

- 2019-03: $73.08 per share

- 2019-04: $84.14 per share

- 2019-05: $80.56 per share

- 2019-06: $88.10 per share

- 2019-07: $84.39 per share

- 2019-08: $87.44 per share

- 2019-09: $86.12 per share

- 2019-10: $87.71 per share

- 2019-11: $88.93 per share

- 2019-12: $86.30 per share

- 2020-01: $82.17 per share

- 2020-02: $76.92 per share

- 2020-03: $61.32 per share

- 2020-04: $63.53 per share

- 2020-05: $63.55 per share

- 2020-06: $66.14 per share

- 2020-07: $68.50 per share

- 2020-08: $75.01 per share

- 2020-09: $67.71 per share

- 2020-10: $68.19 per share

- 2020-11: $86.18 per share

- 2020-12: $91.46 per share

- 2021-01: $88.30 per share

- 2021-02: $97.37 per share

- 2021-03: $112.16 per share

- 2021-04: $119.80 per share

- 2021-05: $126.11 per share

- 2021-06: $123.19 per share

- 2021-07: $121.81 per share

- 2021-08: $121.50 per share

- 2021-09: $115.38 per share

- 2021-10: $121.49 per share

- 2021-11: $119.34 per share

- 2021-12: $127.39 per share

- 2022-01: $119.21 per share

- 2022-02: $115.54 per share

- 2022-03: $112.63 per share

- 2022-04: $106.48 per share

- 2022-05: $105.63 per share

- 2022-06: $102.96 per share

- 2022-07: $116.37 per share

- 2022-08: $118.92 per share

- 2022-09: $115.48 per share

- 2022-10: $141.10 per share

- 2022-11: $154.90 per share

- 2022-12: $148.11 per share

- 2023-01: $148.25 per share

- 2023-02: $167.22 per share

- 2023-03: $162.59 per share

- 2023-04: $171.00 per share

- 2023-05: $164.84 per share

- 2023-06: $184.78 per share

- 2023-07: $215.04 per share

- 2023-08: $224.25 per share

- 2023-09: $210.39 per share

- 2023-10: $206.65 per share

- 2023-11: $212.52 per share

- 2023-12: $215.43 per share

- 2024-01: $228.11 per share

- 2024-02: $313.52 per share

- 2024-03: $350.20 per share

- 2024-04: $357.17 per share

- 2024-05: $388.66 per share

- 2024-06: $365.08 per share

- 2024-07: $375.44 per share

- 2024-08: $393.06 per share

- 2024-09: $430.53 per share

- 2024-10: $446.07 per share

- 2024-11: $510.12 per share

- 2024-12: $453.90 per share

- 2025-01: $448.06 per share

- 2025-02: $408.91 per share

- 2025-03: $369.63 per share

- 2025-04: $400.70 per share

- 2025-05: $471.86 per share

- 2025-06: $534.89 per share

- 2025-07: $627.49 per share

- 2025-08: $620.00 per share

- 2025-09: $649.54 per share

- 2025-10: $675.78 per share

- 2025-11: $615.07 per share

- 2025-12: $611.79 per share

- 2026-01: $720.73 per share

- 2026-02: $724.62 per share

- 2026-03: $738.31 per share

- 2026-04: $891.67 per share

- 2026-05: $826.82 per share

- 2026-06: $829.88 per share

- 2026-07: $797.43 per share

- 2026-08: $734.54 per share

- 2026-09: $754.49 per share

- 2026-10: $776.05 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $46.40 per share, central $54.10 per share, high $62.13 per share

- FY2017: low $49.52 per share, central $55.63 per share, high $63.75 per share

- FY2018: low $53.38 per share, central $61.98 per share, high $71.53 per share

- FY2019: low $74.24 per share, central $92.30 per share, high $107.22 per share

- FY2020: low $83.82 per share, central $103.28 per share, high $118.46 per share

- FY2021: low $102.57 per share, central $132.40 per share, high $153.04 per share

- FY2022: low $118.05 per share, central $156.43 per share, high $182.40 per share

- FY2023: low $172.74 per share, central $246.79 per share, high $288.10 per share

- FY2024: low $232.17 per share, central $328.41 per share, high $382.09 per share

- FY2025: low $290.92 per share, central $408.26 per share, high $476.58 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:57.000Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.