# Man Group (EMG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EMG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:33.725Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 336.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 235.45 per share, central GBX 265.56 per share, high GBX 305.63 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 265.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:33.725Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.4% at the stated quote. About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.42×

- FY2021: 0.38×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.25×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 25.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 65.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 65.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.1%

- FY2017: 28.0%

- FY2018: 21.9%

- FY2019: 24.6%

- FY2020: 33.9%

- FY2021: 46.8%

- FY2022: 66.2%

- FY2023: 16.5%

- FY2024: 24.3%

- FY2025: 27.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.9% vs 24.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.10 to 0.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.1%

- Market cap gain: $1.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.54

- Average buyback yield: 4.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $201M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 24.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.19

- FY2017: $0.15

- FY2018: $0.17

- FY2019: $0.18

- FY2020: $0.09

- FY2021: $0.34

- FY2022: $0.47

- FY2023: $0.20

- FY2024: $0.25

- FY2025: $0.16

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -2.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.32×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 49.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.57×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.54×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.9%

- FY2017: 0.8%

- FY2018: -1.9%

- FY2019: -5.6%

- FY2020: -9.7%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: -3.9%

- FY2023: -2.4%

- FY2024: -7.7%

- FY2025: -2.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4% a year for ten years · sales +4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.228Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31/reports/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: $827M 

- FY2017: $1.1B 

- FY2018: $960M 

- FY2019: $1.1B 

- FY2020: $939M 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $1.2B 

- FY2024: $1.4B 

- FY2025: $1.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 80.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31/reports/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: 63.7% 

- FY2017: 65.5% 

- FY2018: 65.8% 

- FY2019: 68.6% 

- FY2020: 64.9% 

- FY2021: 53.1% 

- FY2022: 71.4% 

- FY2023: 65.2% 

- FY2024: 64.2% 

- FY2025: 80.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 1.5 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31/reports/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 1491652224; grossProfit 1203735781; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EMG.LSE: Man Group Plc is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm provides long-only and alternative investment management services worldwide. It offers a range of liquid investment products and solutions, which include quantitative, multi-manager and discretionary investment styles, and span across various asset classes, like equity, real estate, currency, credit, volatility, and commodities. The firm distributes its products and solutions directly to institutions and to private investors through a global network of intermediaries. Man Group Plc was founded in 1783 and is based in St. Helier, Jersey with an additional office in London, United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 64.2% to 80.7% during 2023–25; it earns 25.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 65.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 64.2%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31/reports/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 80.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08105067985166872],[2017,0.2804678188319428],[2018,0.2192343879189911],[2019,0.2455325885110658],[2020,0.33859278272686094],[2021,0.46821305547462766],[2022,0.6620738699497756],[2023,0.1648919511431256],[2024,0.24264842732179415],[2025,0.2717740119379123]]; median 0.25865330022448907. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 133.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 24000000; owner earnings 333000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 31000000; owner earnings 349000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 23000000; owner earnings 325600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 30000000; owner earnings 164600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 49000000; owner earnings 495000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 45000000; owner earnings 610400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 33000000; owner earnings 220400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 41000000; owner earnings 282400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31/reports/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 18377646; owner earnings 182667427. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,158000000],[2017,158000000],[2018,189000000],[2019,152000000],[2020,147000000],[2021,160000000],[2022,179000000],[2023,181000000],[2024,192000000],[2025,198000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31/reports/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 133748419 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EMG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.539 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.044839455685605975. Price 336.4; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.1580646772454439 → FY2025 0.16156222979714. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 124.70 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 113.40 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 118.30 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 133.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 146.40 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 147.30 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 153.70 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 157.30 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 154.80 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 160.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 167.40 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 167.90 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 193.60 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 198.10 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 206.80 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 217.20 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 171.75 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 171.60 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 181.20 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 181.70 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 176.60 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 173.50 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 171.80 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 176.40 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 155.45 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 145.35 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 133.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 142.65 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 138.15 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 135.80 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 156.60 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 146.28 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 155.80 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 171.20 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 166.65 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 174.75 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 143.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 151.75 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 158.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 153.90 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 146.60 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 124.55 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 133.40 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 142.40 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 130.65 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 124.05 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 122.55 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 115.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 107.55 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 117.70 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 138.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 146.25 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 149.90 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 161.05 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 168.15 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 178.20 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 179.95 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 197.95 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 216.60 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 204.30 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 232.70 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 214.40 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 227.40 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 192.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 193.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 234.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 235.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 256.20 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 249.80 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 272.20 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 244.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 224.10 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 216.70 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 209.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 213.70 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 248.70 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 265.60 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 235.40 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 227.20 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 219.60 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 218.50 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 238.80 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 211.80 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 223.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 219.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 210.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 232.60 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 237.10 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 243.50 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 267.40 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 257.60 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 263.60 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 242.20 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 244.40 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 223.60 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 211.80 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 198.60 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 210.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 214.40 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 214.80 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 213.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 198.10 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 163.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 175.20 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 169.10 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 164.90 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 163.50 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 178.40 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 210.20 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 206.80 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 228.80 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 262.80 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 267.80 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 251.60 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 255.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 274.80 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 292.20 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 302.20 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 309.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 330.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 336.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 120.67 per share, central GBX 134.25 per share, high GBX 152.32 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 140.41 per share, central GBX 157.55 per share, high GBX 180.37 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 170.14 per share, central GBX 191.48 per share, high GBX 219.89 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 183.06 per share, central GBX 206.97 per share, high GBX 238.80 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 168.15 per share, central GBX 189.41 per share, high GBX 217.73 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 280.41 per share, central GBX 316.95 per share, high GBX 365.59 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 390.74 per share, central GBX 441.24 per share, high GBX 508.47 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 244.94 per share, central GBX 277.35 per share, high GBX 320.49 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 207.53 per share, central GBX 234.43 per share, high GBX 270.24 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 231.39 per share, central GBX 260.89 per share, high GBX 300.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:13.200Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31/reports/2549003YWC1DW6LALB09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Man Group

EMG · LSE

FTSE 250 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 336.40
Buy up to: GBX 265.56
Expected / yr: 8.4% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 37.4% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 24.6%
Worst year: 10.0%
Latest · 2025: 24.7%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 25.9% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 16.5% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 25.9%
Worst year: 8.1%
Latest · 2025: 27.2%

New investment earned 0% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.99×
Annual median: 1.00×
Latest · 2025: 1.02×

Per-share value rose from 0.1 to 0.2, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: $0.18
Worst year: -$0.19
Latest · 2025: $0.16

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -2.1% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.1%
Worst year: 0.8%
Latest · 2025: -2.1%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 26.8%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.19 USD.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 124.70 · Value 134.25 · Buy at or below 134.25; 2016-11 · Price GBX 113.40 · Value 134.25 · Buy at or below 134.25; 2016-12 · Price GBX 118.30 · Value 134.25 · Buy at or below 134.25; 2017-01 · Price GBX 133.00 · Value 134.25 · Buy at or below 134.25; 2017-02 · Price GBX 146.40 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-03 · Price GBX 147.30 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-04 · Price GBX 153.70 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-05 · Price GBX 157.30 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-06 · Price GBX 154.80 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-07 · Price GBX 160.00 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-08 · Price GBX 167.40 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-09 · Price GBX 167.90 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-10 · Price GBX 193.60 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-11 · Price GBX 198.10 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2017-12 · Price GBX 206.80 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2018-01 · Price GBX 217.20 · Value 157.55 · Buy at or below 157.55; 2018-02 · Price GBX 171.75 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-03 · Price GBX 171.60 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-04 · Price GBX 181.20 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-05 · Price GBX 181.70 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-06 · Price GBX 176.60 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-07 · Price GBX 173.50 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-08 · Price GBX 171.80 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-09 · Price GBX 176.40 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-10 · Price GBX 155.45 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-11 · Price GBX 145.35 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2018-12 · Price GBX 133.00 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2019-01 · Price GBX 142.65 · Value 191.48 · Buy at or below 191.48; 2019-02 · Price GBX 138.15 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-03 · Price GBX 135.80 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-04 · Price GBX 156.60 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-05 · Price GBX 146.28 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-06 · Price GBX 155.80 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-07 · Price GBX 171.20 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-08 · Price GBX 166.65 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-09 · Price GBX 174.75 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-10 · Price GBX 143.50 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-11 · Price GBX 151.75 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2019-12 · Price GBX 158.00 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2020-01 · Price GBX 153.90 · Value 206.97 · Buy at or below 206.97; 2020-02 · Price GBX 146.60 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-03 · Price GBX 124.55 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-04 · Price GBX 133.40 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-05 · Price GBX 142.40 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-06 · Price GBX 130.65 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-07 · Price GBX 124.05 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-08 · Price GBX 122.55 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-09 · Price GBX 115.00 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-10 · Price GBX 107.55 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-11 · Price GBX 117.70 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2020-12 · Price GBX 138.00 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2021-01 · Price GBX 146.25 · Value 189.41 · Buy at or below 189.41; 2021-02 · Price GBX 149.90 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-03 · Price GBX 161.05 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-04 · Price GBX 168.15 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-05 · Price GBX 178.20 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-06 · Price GBX 179.95 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-07 · Price GBX 197.95 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-08 · Price GBX 216.60 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-09 · Price GBX 204.30 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-10 · Price GBX 232.70 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-11 · Price GBX 214.40 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2021-12 · Price GBX 227.40 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2022-01 · Price GBX 192.50 · Value 316.95 · Buy at or below 316.95; 2022-02 · Price GBX 193.00 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-03 · Price GBX 234.00 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-04 · Price GBX 235.00 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-05 · Price GBX 256.20 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-06 · Price GBX 249.80 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-07 · Price GBX 272.20 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-08 · Price GBX 244.00 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-09 · Price GBX 224.10 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-10 · Price GBX 216.70 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-11 · Price GBX 209.00 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2022-12 · Price GBX 213.70 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2023-01 · Price GBX 248.70 · Value 441.24 · Buy at or below 441.24; 2023-02 · Price GBX 265.60 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-03 · Price GBX 235.40 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-04 · Price GBX 227.20 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-05 · Price GBX 219.60 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-06 · Price GBX 218.50 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-07 · Price GBX 238.80 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-08 · Price GBX 211.80 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-09 · Price GBX 223.50 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-10 · Price GBX 219.50 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-11 · Price GBX 210.20 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2023-12 · Price GBX 232.60 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2024-01 · Price GBX 237.10 · Value 277.35 · Buy at or below 277.35; 2024-02 · Price GBX 243.50 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-03 · Price GBX 267.40 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-04 · Price GBX 257.60 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-05 · Price GBX 263.60 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-06 · Price GBX 242.20 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-07 · Price GBX 244.40 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-08 · Price GBX 223.60 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-09 · Price GBX 211.80 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-10 · Price GBX 198.60 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-11 · Price GBX 210.00 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2024-12 · Price GBX 214.40 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2025-01 · Price GBX 214.80 · Value 234.43 · Buy at or below 234.43; 2025-02 · Price GBX 213.00 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-03 · Price GBX 198.10 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-04 · Price GBX 163.00 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-05 · Price GBX 175.20 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-06 · Price GBX 169.10 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-07 · Price GBX 164.90 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-08 · Price GBX 163.50 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-09 · Price GBX 178.40 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-10 · Price GBX 210.20 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-11 · Price GBX 206.80 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2025-12 · Price GBX 228.80 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2026-01 · Price GBX 262.80 · Value 260.89 · Buy at or below 260.89; 2026-02 · Price GBX 267.80 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-03 · Price GBX 251.60 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-04 · Price GBX 255.00 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-05 · Price GBX 274.80 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-06 · Price GBX 292.20 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-07 · Price GBX 302.20 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-08 · Price GBX 309.00 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-09 · Price GBX 330.00 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-10 · Price GBX 336.40 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56; 2026-10 · Price GBX 336.40 · Value 265.56 · Buy at or below 265.56

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 235.45 – GBX 305.63
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 265.56
Discount to value	1 − 336.40 / 265.56 = -26.7%
Return / year	About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 19.98/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 17.11/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

Revenue$1.5B

Revenue

Owner earnings$183M

Owner earnings

Operating margin24.7%

Operating margin

Net cash / debt$7.1M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares1.1B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·