# Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EQNR.OL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:40.022Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: NOK. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: NOK 429.30 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low NOK 553.77 per share, central NOK 619.35 per share, high NOK 706.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value NOK 619.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:40.022Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.0% at the stated quote. About 14.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NO 10-year bond 4.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.26×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: -0.06×

- FY2021: 0.38×

- FY2022: 0.53×

- FY2023: 0.33×

- FY2024: 0.30×

- FY2025: 0.24×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.29×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 32.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.1%

- FY2017: 16.3%

- FY2018: 24.4%

- FY2019: 10.8%

- FY2020: -4.4%

- FY2021: 54.0%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: 58.6%

- FY2024: 49.0%

- FY2025: 39.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $61B

- Net income, five-year total: $63B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.35×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 0.66×

- FY2025: 0.86×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.3% vs 49.0%

- Per-share earnings: -0.91 to 3.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.4%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $15B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $4.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.91

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.11

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.29

- Average buyback yield: 4.0%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $69B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 49.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.91

- FY2017: $1.37

- FY2018: $2.26

- FY2019: $0.55

- FY2020: -$1.69

- FY2021: $2.64

- FY2022: $9.15

- FY2023: $4.01

- FY2024: $3.11

- FY2025: $1.94

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.78×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.96×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.4%

- FY2017: -8.8%

- FY2018: -10.8%

- FY2019: -10.1%

- FY2020: -13.0%

- FY2021: -13.8%

- FY2022: -4.0%

- FY2023: -8.9%

- FY2024: -8.6%

- FY2025: -11.3%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.5% a year for ten years · sales +7.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.106Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: Equinor says it could lose billions on Trump's wind power clampdown ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/equinor-slams-trump-administrations-halt-060920412.html))

- 2026-01-08: Equinor Says AI Saved $130 Million In 2025 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/equinor-says-ai-saved-130-145429739.html))

- 2026-02-04: Equinor Flags 10%--20% Output Decline at Johan Sverdrup This Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/equinor-flags-10-20-output-202416323.html))

- 2026-05-07: Equinor Drops 5.6% As Cash Flow Miss Overshadows Profit Beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/equinor-drops-5-6-cash-184052856.html))

- 2026-07-22: Equinor Profit Soars 93% as Oil and Gas Price Spike Fuels Windfall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/equinor-profit-soars-93-oil-093000627.html))

- 2026-10-09: Equinor's Gas Discovery at Gullfaks South to Boost NCS Resource Base ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/equinors-gas-discovery-gullfaks-south-132800360.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140625/000114062526000013/eqnr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-19.

- FY2017: $61B 

- FY2018: $79B 

- FY2019: $63B 

- FY2020: $46B 

- FY2021: $89B 

- FY2022: $149B 

- FY2023: $107B 

- FY2024: $103B 

- FY2025: $106B 

- FY2026: $114B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140625/000114062526000013/eqnr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-19.

- FY2016: 27.7% 

- FY2017: 39.6% 

- FY2018: 39.2% 

- FY2019: 32.1% 

- FY2020: 20.8% 

- FY2021: 47.2% 

- FY2022: 59.6% 

- FY2023: 45.0% 

- FY2024: 51.2% 

- FY2025: 47.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are USD 105.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140625/000114062526000013/eqnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-19); FY2025: revenue 105828000000; grossProfit 50664000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 45% to 51.2% during 2023–25; it earns 32.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 45%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140625/000114062526000013/eqnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0011898486331802093],[2017,0.16287255722551766],[2018,0.2444951900625759],[2019,0.10772322224202459],[2020,-0.04365288619061386],[2021,0.5402303533071624],[2022,1.3027936725922535],[2023,0.5858319895182423],[2024,0.49019561815336465],[2025,0.39771396798919734]]; median 0.3211045790258866. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 34.9% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2017: growth capex 2111000000; upkeep 8644000000; owner earnings 4590000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4599128540305011.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2018: growth capex 2118000000; upkeep 9249000000; owner earnings 7535000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28108825481088257.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 10204000000; owner earnings 4843000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8476000000; owner earnings 381800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 8040000000; owner earnings 11529600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2022: growth capex 2367000000; upkeep 6391000000; owner earnings 28012400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08449829361282861.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 10575000000; owner earnings 11230000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 12177000000; owner earnings 5833000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140625/000114062526000013/eqnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-19); FY2025: growth capex 1521000000; upkeep 12473000000; owner earnings 4360800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3487892129884425.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,1876000000],[2017,1491000000],[2018,2672000000],[2019,3342000000],[2020,2330000000],[2021,1797000000],[2022,5380000000],[2023,10906000000],[2024,8578000000],[2025,4791000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140625/000114062526000013/eqnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 5916000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 71.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EQNR.OL SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 71.654 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07661478721627873. Price 429.3; FX 9.475080538184574; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.0166087263908121 → FY2025 1.6765859284890428. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (NOK per share)

- 2016-10: NOK 135.40 per share

- 2016-11: NOK 145.90 per share

- 2016-12: NOK 158.40 per share

- 2017-01: NOK 153.40 per share

- 2017-02: NOK 148.40 per share

- 2017-03: NOK 146.70 per share

- 2017-04: NOK 141.70 per share

- 2017-05: NOK 146.90 per share

- 2017-06: NOK 138.40 per share

- 2017-07: NOK 147.40 per share

- 2017-08: NOK 147.00 per share

- 2017-09: NOK 159.30 per share

- 2017-10: NOK 165.40 per share

- 2017-11: NOK 166.80 per share

- 2017-12: NOK 175.20 per share

- 2018-01: NOK 180.00 per share

- 2018-02: NOK 182.25 per share

- 2018-03: NOK 184.65 per share

- 2018-04: NOK 205.50 per share

- 2018-05: NOK 215.30 per share

- 2018-06: NOK 216.40 per share

- 2018-07: NOK 216.60 per share

- 2018-08: NOK 215.10 per share

- 2018-09: NOK 229.50 per share

- 2018-10: NOK 219.30 per share

- 2018-11: NOK 200.50 per share

- 2018-12: NOK 183.75 per share

- 2019-01: NOK 192.80 per share

- 2019-02: NOK 192.35 per share

- 2019-03: NOK 188.85 per share

- 2019-04: NOK 192.45 per share

- 2019-05: NOK 167.70 per share

- 2019-06: NOK 168.45 per share

- 2019-07: NOK 158.90 per share

- 2019-08: NOK 155.80 per share

- 2019-09: NOK 173.05 per share

- 2019-10: NOK 170.10 per share

- 2019-11: NOK 169.80 per share

- 2019-12: NOK 175.50 per share

- 2020-01: NOK 167.15 per share

- 2020-02: NOK 141.25 per share

- 2020-03: NOK 131.15 per share

- 2020-04: NOK 143.45 per share

- 2020-05: NOK 141.15 per share

- 2020-06: NOK 136.60 per share

- 2020-07: NOK 134.30 per share

- 2020-08: NOK 141.60 per share

- 2020-09: NOK 132.80 per share

- 2020-10: NOK 121.25 per share

- 2020-11: NOK 140.20 per share

- 2020-12: NOK 144.95 per share

- 2021-01: NOK 154.85 per share

- 2021-02: NOK 163.25 per share

- 2021-03: NOK 167.30 per share

- 2021-04: NOK 169.50 per share

- 2021-05: NOK 179.66 per share

- 2021-06: NOK 182.18 per share

- 2021-07: NOK 172.44 per share

- 2021-08: NOK 184.74 per share

- 2021-09: NOK 222.65 per share

- 2021-10: NOK 213.75 per share

- 2021-11: NOK 228.70 per share

- 2021-12: NOK 235.90 per share

- 2022-01: NOK 245.85 per share

- 2022-02: NOK 278.45 per share

- 2022-03: NOK 331.20 per share

- 2022-04: NOK 321.05 per share

- 2022-05: NOK 360.60 per share

- 2022-06: NOK 342.55 per share

- 2022-07: NOK 369.00 per share

- 2022-08: NOK 382.70 per share

- 2022-09: NOK 358.10 per share

- 2022-10: NOK 380.35 per share

- 2022-11: NOK 379.10 per share

- 2022-12: NOK 351.80 per share

- 2023-01: NOK 303.30 per share

- 2023-02: NOK 320.15 per share

- 2023-03: NOK 298.70 per share

- 2023-04: NOK 305.00 per share

- 2023-05: NOK 283.75 per share

- 2023-06: NOK 312.10 per share

- 2023-07: NOK 308.40 per share

- 2023-08: NOK 328.20 per share

- 2023-09: NOK 351.15 per share

- 2023-10: NOK 374.45 per share

- 2023-11: NOK 348.10 per share

- 2023-12: NOK 322.15 per share

- 2024-01: NOK 302.65 per share

- 2024-02: NOK 261.65 per share

- 2024-03: NOK 286.40 per share

- 2024-04: NOK 298.95 per share

- 2024-05: NOK 302.85 per share

- 2024-06: NOK 303.95 per share

- 2024-07: NOK 290.00 per share

- 2024-08: NOK 281.50 per share

- 2024-09: NOK 266.70 per share

- 2024-10: NOK 264.05 per share

- 2024-11: NOK 267.20 per share

- 2024-12: NOK 265.40 per share

- 2025-01: NOK 273.65 per share

- 2025-02: NOK 257.40 per share

- 2025-03: NOK 278.65 per share

- 2025-04: NOK 237.90 per share

- 2025-05: NOK 239.50 per share

- 2025-06: NOK 255.10 per share

- 2025-07: NOK 267.70 per share

- 2025-08: NOK 247.80 per share

- 2025-09: NOK 243.40 per share

- 2025-10: NOK 242.00 per share

- 2025-11: NOK 233.10 per share

- 2025-12: NOK 237.00 per share

- 2026-01: NOK 257.00 per share

- 2026-02: NOK 281.60 per share

- 2026-03: NOK 420.40 per share

- 2026-04: NOK 371.80 per share

- 2026-05: NOK 335.10 per share

- 2026-06: NOK 313.50 per share

- 2026-07: NOK 386.40 per share

- 2026-08: NOK 399.40 per share

- 2026-09: NOK 399.50 per share

- 2026-10: NOK 426.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (NOK per share)

- FY2018: low NOK 39.89 per share, central NOK 40.28 per share, high NOK 40.80 per share

- FY2019: low NOK 180.01 per share, central NOK 200.36 per share, high NOK 227.46 per share

- FY2020: low NOK 161.03 per share, central NOK 176.14 per share, high NOK 196.24 per share

- FY2021: low NOK 309.64 per share, central NOK 339.67 per share, high NOK 379.64 per share

- FY2022: low NOK 622.42 per share, central NOK 719.56 per share, high NOK 816.84 per share

- FY2023: low NOK 510.31 per share, central NOK 564.47 per share, high NOK 636.56 per share

- FY2024: low NOK 458.98 per share, central NOK 513.40 per share, high NOK 585.84 per share

- FY2025: low NOK 505.60 per share, central NOK 566.66 per share, high NOK 647.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:25.114Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140625/000114062526000013/eqnr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.