# Erie Indemnity (ERIE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ERIE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:30.119Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $238.69 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $127.33 per share, central $157.64 per share, high $183.90 per share. Buy at or below the central value $157.64 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:30.119Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 1.40×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.20×

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: -0.09×

- FY2020: -0.11×

- FY2021: -0.11×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 85.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 26.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -20.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 85.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 101.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 25.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 29.3%

- FY2017: 24.7%

- FY2018: 80.1%

- FY2019: -20.4%

- FY2020: -20.2%

- FY2021: -19.4%

- FY2022: 21.9%

- FY2023: 27.3%

- FY2024: 32.0%

- FY2025: 29.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 36.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.69×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.3% vs 29.3%

- Per-share earnings: 3.37 to 10.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: $9.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 15.4%

- Per-share value change: $7.24

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.37

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $10.62

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 29.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.02

- FY2017: $3.37

- FY2018: $4.93

- FY2019: $5.42

- FY2020: $5.57

- FY2021: $5.69

- FY2022: $5.67

- FY2023: $8.47

- FY2024: $11.48

- FY2025: $10.62

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: -13.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.23×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.8%

- FY2017: 0.0%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: -2.3%

- FY2021: 0.0%

- FY2022: -3.0%

- FY2023: 2.6%

- FY2024: -0.4%

- FY2025: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 56% since Sep 2024 · sales +7.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:05.158Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.2% a year for ten years

- 2026-02-25: Erie Indemnity Plans CEO Transition As Market Weighs Earnings Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/erie-indemnity-plans-ceo-transition-010920308.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026010666/erie-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: $1.6B 

- FY2017: $1.7B 

- FY2018: $2.4B 

- FY2019: $2.5B 

- FY2020: $2.5B 

- FY2021: $2.6B 

- FY2022: $2.8B 

- FY2023: $3.3B 

- FY2024: $3.8B 

- FY2025: $4.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026010666/erie-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2022: 13.2% 

- FY2023: 15.9% 

- FY2024: 17.8% 

- FY2025: 15.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance brokers; annual sales are USD 4.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026010666/erie-20251231.htm#000162828026010666 (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: revenue 4067258000; grossProfit 640800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ERIE.US: Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.8% to 17.8% during 2023–25; it earns 26% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 15.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026010666/erie-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2931621504154862],[2017,0.24742577158992504],[2018,0.8010466460728753],[2019,-0.20372987782580607],[2020,-0.20213422109594975],[2021,-0.19407937669237005],[2022,0.21911222761734372],[2023,0.27342575465765506],[2024,0.32008208184523945],[2025,0.293394213732927]]; median 0.26042576312379007. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 6.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 36.2% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2016: growth capex 3761199.8506601825; upkeep 21446800.149339817; owner earnings 204073199.85066018. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01843064083580113.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2017: growth capex 4176814.2130082585; upkeep 24750185.78699174; owner earnings 187079814.21300825. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022326375673286464.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2018: growth capex 32212650.057703126; upkeep 24084349.942296874; owner earnings 277507650.05770314. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1160784218056873.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2019: growth capex 5420418.085270539; upkeep 96618581.91472946; owner earnings 250974418.08527052. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02159749239234777.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2020: growth capex 4147980.7535150424; upkeep 51380019.24648496; owner earnings 276226980.75351506. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.015016566239111883.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2021: growth capex 8761824.452953309; upkeep 140038175.5470467; owner earnings 206918824.4529533. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.042344259765236904.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2022: growth capex 15484000; upkeep 51720000; owner earnings 298569000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0518607089148572.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: growth capex 39055000; upkeep 53592000; owner earnings 446061000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08755528952318181.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: growth capex 60938000; upkeep 63907000; owner earnings 600314000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1015102096569462.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026010666/erie-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: growth capex 38058002.917835176; upkeep 77633997.08216482; owner earnings 558484002.9178352. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06814519792688549.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Incremental return on capital 0.3618392712452302, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,135985000],[2017,145765000],[2018,156474000],[2019,167651000],[2020,272902000],[2021,192801000],[2022,206772000],[2023,221675000],[2024,237508000],[2025,254275000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 45.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ERIE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 45.462 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Operating risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026010666/erie-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); Operating risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10437884763153982. Price 238.69; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.0471066622986176 → FY2025 10.599712327103685. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $102.39 per share

- 2016-11: $107.17 per share

- 2016-12: $112.45 per share

- 2017-01: $112.11 per share

- 2017-02: $118.61 per share

- 2017-03: $122.70 per share

- 2017-04: $123.82 per share

- 2017-05: $117.77 per share

- 2017-06: $125.07 per share

- 2017-07: $127.46 per share

- 2017-08: $120.79 per share

- 2017-09: $120.57 per share

- 2017-10: $120.80 per share

- 2017-11: $123.89 per share

- 2017-12: $121.84 per share

- 2018-01: $118.76 per share

- 2018-02: $115.67 per share

- 2018-03: $117.64 per share

- 2018-04: $116.77 per share

- 2018-05: $113.01 per share

- 2018-06: $117.26 per share

- 2018-07: $124.24 per share

- 2018-08: $123.53 per share

- 2018-09: $127.53 per share

- 2018-10: $129.69 per share

- 2018-11: $136.85 per share

- 2018-12: $133.31 per share

- 2019-01: $146.38 per share

- 2019-02: $178.22 per share

- 2019-03: $178.52 per share

- 2019-04: $189.32 per share

- 2019-05: $212.67 per share

- 2019-06: $254.28 per share

- 2019-07: $222.77 per share

- 2019-08: $219.31 per share

- 2019-09: $185.65 per share

- 2019-10: $184.27 per share

- 2019-11: $169.30 per share

- 2019-12: $166.00 per share

- 2020-01: $166.50 per share

- 2020-02: $142.92 per share

- 2020-03: $148.24 per share

- 2020-04: $178.06 per share

- 2020-05: $180.24 per share

- 2020-06: $191.90 per share

- 2020-07: $210.12 per share

- 2020-08: $213.44 per share

- 2020-09: $210.28 per share

- 2020-10: $232.87 per share

- 2020-11: $225.61 per share

- 2020-12: $245.60 per share

- 2021-01: $243.10 per share

- 2021-02: $242.10 per share

- 2021-03: $220.91 per share

- 2021-04: $214.02 per share

- 2021-05: $201.13 per share

- 2021-06: $193.35 per share

- 2021-07: $184.89 per share

- 2021-08: $177.09 per share

- 2021-09: $178.42 per share

- 2021-10: $205.81 per share

- 2021-11: $185.81 per share

- 2021-12: $192.66 per share

- 2022-01: $184.10 per share

- 2022-02: $175.10 per share

- 2022-03: $176.13 per share

- 2022-04: $160.28 per share

- 2022-05: $167.75 per share

- 2022-06: $192.19 per share

- 2022-07: $203.36 per share

- 2022-08: $214.93 per share

- 2022-09: $222.31 per share

- 2022-10: $257.01 per share

- 2022-11: $282.39 per share

- 2022-12: $248.72 per share

- 2023-01: $244.35 per share

- 2023-02: $235.39 per share

- 2023-03: $231.66 per share

- 2023-04: $217.33 per share

- 2023-05: $214.10 per share

- 2023-06: $210.01 per share

- 2023-07: $221.96 per share

- 2023-08: $278.73 per share

- 2023-09: $293.79 per share

- 2023-10: $276.19 per share

- 2023-11: $295.64 per share

- 2023-12: $334.92 per share

- 2024-01: $345.83 per share

- 2024-02: $406.88 per share

- 2024-03: $401.57 per share

- 2024-04: $382.66 per share

- 2024-05: $362.43 per share

- 2024-06: $362.40 per share

- 2024-07: $441.15 per share

- 2024-08: $508.23 per share

- 2024-09: $539.82 per share

- 2024-10: $448.84 per share

- 2024-11: $440.56 per share

- 2024-12: $412.23 per share

- 2025-01: $402.95 per share

- 2025-02: $428.07 per share

- 2025-03: $419.05 per share

- 2025-04: $358.62 per share

- 2025-05: $358.51 per share

- 2025-06: $346.79 per share

- 2025-07: $356.24 per share

- 2025-08: $354.38 per share

- 2025-09: $318.16 per share

- 2025-10: $292.64 per share

- 2025-11: $295.49 per share

- 2025-12: $286.65 per share

- 2026-01: $283.01 per share

- 2026-02: $269.44 per share

- 2026-03: $251.31 per share

- 2026-04: $218.93 per share

- 2026-05: $213.07 per share

- 2026-06: $239.75 per share

- 2026-07: $242.04 per share

- 2026-08: $255.56 per share

- 2026-09: $219.15 per share

- 2026-10: $238.69 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $34.63 per share, central $39.40 per share, high $45.76 per share

- FY2017: low $35.00 per share, central $39.83 per share, high $46.25 per share

- FY2018: low $51.92 per share, central $59.08 per share, high $68.61 per share

- FY2019: low $53.99 per share, central $61.43 per share, high $71.34 per share

- FY2020: low $58.18 per share, central $66.20 per share, high $76.88 per share

- FY2021: low $59.94 per share, central $68.20 per share, high $79.20 per share

- FY2022: low $61.95 per share, central $70.49 per share, high $81.86 per share

- FY2023: low $71.30 per share, central $81.13 per share, high $94.21 per share

- FY2024: low $86.84 per share, central $99.39 per share, high $115.46 per share

- FY2025: low $124.76 per share, central $154.46 per share, high $180.18 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:17.751Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922621/000162828026010666/erie-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.