# Ero Copper (ERO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ERO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:20.588Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $34.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.53×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.05×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.28×

- FY2020: 0.48×

- FY2021: 0.55×

- FY2022: 0.30×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.34×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.36×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 39.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.9 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.9%

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: 12.7%

- FY2019: 23.2%

- FY2020: 41.2%

- FY2021: 70.4%

- FY2022: 16.0%

- FY2023: 7.0%

- FY2024: 8.3%

- FY2025: 14.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.30×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$177M

- Net income, five-year total: $596M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: -1.33×

- FY2023: -2.95×

- FY2024: 3.47×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -2.9% vs 8.3%

- Per-share earnings: -0.04 to 0.98 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Market cap gain: $2.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $729M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $1.01

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.98

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $755M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -2.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.05

- FY2017: $0.27

- FY2018: -$0.04

- FY2019: $1.04

- FY2020: $0.56

- FY2021: $2.21

- FY2022: $1.10

- FY2023: $0.98

- FY2024: -$0.66

- FY2025: $2.58

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.72×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.9%

- FY2017: 0.3%

- FY2018: -23.9%

- FY2019: -7.8%

- FY2020: -22.4%

- FY2021: -23.7%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: -14.7%

- FY2025: -4.7%

## Holders

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 156% since Oct 2023 · sales +30.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:42.630Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2026-02-09: Ero Copper cut at BofA after weaker than expected 2026 guidance ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4549147-ero-copper-cut-at-bofa-after-weaker-than-expected-2026-guidance?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +30.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853860/000162828026022073/ero-20251231_d2.htm; observed 2026-03-30.

- FY2017: $148M 

- FY2018: $233M 

- FY2019: $285M 

- FY2020: $324M 

- FY2021: $490M 

- FY2022: $426M 

- FY2023: $427M 

- FY2024: $470M 

- FY2025: $800M 

- FY2026: $1.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 43.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853860/000162828026022073/ero-20251231_d2.htm; observed 2026-03-30.

- FY2017: 12.1% 

- FY2018: 35.3% 

- FY2019: 41.1% 

- FY2020: 58.1% 

- FY2021: 65.1% 

- FY2022: 43.9% 

- FY2023: 36.7% 

- FY2024: 38.4% 

- FY2025: 43.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in copper; annual sales are USD 799.6 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853860/000162828026022073/ero-20251231_d2.htm (filed 2026-03-30); FY2025: revenue 799600618; grossProfit 345512319; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.7% to 43.2% during 2023–25; it earns 13.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853860/000162828026022073/ero-20251231_d2.htm (filed 2026-03-30); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.028623875517186505],[2017,-0.03466983403422041],[2018,0.12689902414924478],[2019,0.23194108569299993],[2020,0.41152638927277985],[2021,0.7041077006926139],[2022,0.16003227640244214],[2023,0.07019496268090096],[2024,0.08261378990199714],[2025,0.1493478456494049]]; median 0.13812343489932483. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 47.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 15.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 58188000; owner earnings 4173979. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); FY2019: growth capex 63972000; upkeep 42302000; owner earnings 91883000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6962332531589086.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); FY2020: growth capex 53251013.92154899; upkeep 64554986.07845101; owner earnings 26415013.921548992. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.0159373786325196.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); FY2021: growth capex 134541000; upkeep 47290000; owner earnings 201053000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6691817580438989.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853860/000162828026022073/ero-20251231_d2.htm (filed 2026-03-30); FY2025: growth capex 127282820; upkeep 140069811; owner earnings 268339611. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.47433481596572785.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); Incremental return on capital 0.15877324690176164, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ERO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.302 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 4.5 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-30); Closing price 34.75 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 7.67870157520528; price multiple 4.525504691080667. FY2025 cash earnings/share 2.5769112070342. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2017-10: $4.00 per share

- 2017-11: $5.28 per share

- 2017-12: $5.96 per share

- 2018-01: $6.01 per share

- 2018-02: $6.25 per share

- 2018-03: $6.62 per share

- 2018-04: $6.27 per share

- 2018-05: $7.34 per share

- 2018-06: $7.25 per share

- 2018-07: $6.44 per share

- 2018-08: $6.66 per share

- 2018-09: $9.02 per share

- 2018-10: $7.47 per share

- 2018-11: $7.22 per share

- 2018-12: $7.24 per share

- 2019-01: $9.60 per share

- 2019-02: $12.26 per share

- 2019-03: $11.69 per share

- 2019-04: $13.40 per share

- 2019-05: $12.08 per share

- 2019-06: $16.28 per share

- 2019-07: $18.87 per share

- 2019-08: $14.73 per share

- 2019-09: $14.54 per share

- 2019-10: $12.60 per share

- 2019-11: $15.60 per share

- 2019-12: $18.22 per share

- 2020-01: $13.73 per share

- 2020-02: $10.64 per share

- 2020-03: $7.60 per share

- 2020-04: $11.39 per share

- 2020-05: $11.71 per share

- 2020-06: $14.57 per share

- 2020-07: $12.16 per share

- 2020-08: $15.05 per share

- 2020-09: $14.58 per share

- 2020-10: $13.09 per share

- 2020-11: $17.29 per share

- 2020-12: $16.22 per share

- 2021-01: $14.50 per share

- 2021-02: $17.91 per share

- 2021-03: $17.08 per share

- 2021-04: $19.80 per share

- 2021-05: $23.31 per share

- 2021-06: $21.02 per share

- 2021-07: $20.10 per share

- 2021-08: $19.00 per share

- 2021-09: $17.75 per share

- 2021-10: $18.66 per share

- 2021-11: $16.39 per share

- 2021-12: $15.29 per share

- 2022-01: $12.45 per share

- 2022-02: $14.26 per share

- 2022-03: $14.64 per share

- 2022-04: $14.41 per share

- 2022-05: $12.38 per share

- 2022-06: $8.43 per share

- 2022-07: $9.90 per share

- 2022-08: $9.47 per share

- 2022-09: $11.00 per share

- 2022-10: $11.38 per share

- 2022-11: $12.64 per share

- 2022-12: $13.75 per share

- 2023-01: $16.39 per share

- 2023-02: $15.65 per share

- 2023-03: $17.64 per share

- 2023-04: $19.69 per share

- 2023-05: $16.53 per share

- 2023-06: $20.23 per share

- 2023-07: $24.03 per share

- 2023-08: $20.68 per share

- 2023-09: $17.24 per share

- 2023-10: $13.57 per share

- 2023-11: $12.33 per share

- 2023-12: $15.79 per share

- 2024-01: $15.66 per share

- 2024-02: $17.06 per share

- 2024-03: $19.28 per share

- 2024-04: $20.39 per share

- 2024-05: $21.30 per share

- 2024-06: $21.38 per share

- 2024-07: $19.50 per share

- 2024-08: $20.55 per share

- 2024-09: $22.27 per share

- 2024-10: $18.34 per share

- 2024-11: $15.22 per share

- 2024-12: $13.48 per share

- 2025-01: $13.40 per share

- 2025-02: $11.82 per share

- 2025-03: $12.12 per share

- 2025-04: $12.47 per share

- 2025-05: $14.11 per share

- 2025-06: $16.85 per share

- 2025-07: $13.52 per share

- 2025-08: $14.34 per share

- 2025-09: $20.23 per share

- 2025-10: $21.35 per share

- 2025-11: $25.37 per share

- 2025-12: $28.29 per share

- 2026-01: $33.51 per share

- 2026-02: $34.18 per share

- 2026-03: $26.67 per share

- 2026-04: $25.85 per share

- 2026-05: $30.44 per share

- 2026-06: $26.75 per share

- 2026-07: $26.91 per share

- 2026-08: $37.13 per share

- 2026-09: $36.69 per share

- 2026-10: $37.61 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $6.12 per share, central $6.78 per share, high $7.66 per share

- FY2022: low $7.47 per share, central $8.04 per share, high $8.80 per share

- FY2023: low $5.10 per share, central $5.65 per share, high $6.39 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:02.302Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853860/000162828026022073/ero-20251231_d2.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-30.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.