# Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ESRT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:21.098Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $4.73 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $7.23 per share, central $8.19 per share, high $9.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value $8.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:21.098Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.7% at the stated quote. About 15.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.27×

- FY2018: 0.26×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.18×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 76.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 76.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): -22.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 24.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.4%

- FY2018: 8.5%

- FY2019: 6.8%

- FY2020: 2.1%

- FY2021: 2.6%

- FY2022: 5.0%

- FY2023: 6.0%

- FY2024: 5.8%

- FY2025: 4.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 4.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 3.41×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $637M

- Net income, five-year total: $187M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 26.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 37.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 2.68×

- FY2022: 2.43×

- FY2023: 6.37×

- FY2024: 3.30×

- FY2025: 0.95×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.4% vs 5.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.19 to 0.19 (three-year endpoint medians)

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: -$3.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$91M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 0.2%

- Per-share value change: $0.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.19

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.19

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.60

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $408M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.19

- FY2017: $0.21

- FY2018: $0.22

- FY2019: $0.17

- FY2020: -$0.04

- FY2021: -$0.02

- FY2022: $0.15

- FY2023: $0.20

- FY2024: $0.19

- FY2025: $0.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.61×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.23×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.75×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.2%

- FY2017: -3.3%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -4.7%

- FY2021: -5.1%

- FY2022: -4.1%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -4.5%

## Holders

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 57% since Sep 2024 · "Operating Expenses: Increased by 8.8%, primarily due to real estate taxes and repair work." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +2.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:42.733Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541401/000154140126000008/esrt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: $712M 

- FY2018: $732M 

- FY2019: $731M 

- FY2020: $609M 

- FY2021: $608M 

- FY2022: $707M 

- FY2023: $740M 

- FY2024: $763M 

- FY2025: $768M 

- FY2026: $784M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 1.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541401/000154140126000008/esrt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: 57.1% 

- FY2018: 56.3% 

- FY2019: 54.3% 

- FY2020: 52.2% 

- FY2021: 54.0% 

- FY2022: 54.5% 

- FY2023: 28.5% 

- FY2024: 53.6% 

- FY2025: 1.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are USD 768.3 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541401/000154140126000008/esrt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 768270000; grossProfit 13729000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); ESRT.US: Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a NYC-focused REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of well-leased, top of tier, modernized, amenitized, and well-located office, retail, and multifamily assets. The Company is a recognized leader in energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality. As of June 30, 2026, ESRT's portfolio is comprised of approximately 7.5 million rentable square feet of office space, 0.8 million rentable square feet of retail space and 743 residential units. Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. was established on July 29, 2011, and was incorporated in 2011 in Maryland and is based in New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 1.8% to 53.6% during 2023–25; it earns 5.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 53.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541401/000154140126000008/esrt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 1.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.09367152556433177],[2018,0.08531858732671543],[2019,0.06832091013030879],[2020,0.021037770410416882],[2021,0.0258090934274512],[2022,0.05013421397496939],[2023,0.06032685478665602],[2024,0.05822487530493955],[2025,0.046122659765729795],[2026,0.04212652937280707]]; median 0.05417954463995447. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 27165000; upkeep 155211000; owner earnings 52392000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5184951901053596.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 62303000; upkeep 160710000; owner earnings 63583000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9798688328641304.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 53120222.46033996; upkeep 189902777.53966004; owner earnings 54397842.820981644. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9765134002676134.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 250256000; owner earnings 14242640.455570057. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 143118000; owner earnings 35373000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 126268000; owner earnings 98912197.58906537. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 139328000; owner earnings 339342489.6631796. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 170413651.66316158. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541401/000154140126000008/esrt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: growth capex 204572.09857997298; upkeep 198293427.90142003; owner earnings 45297636.07104009. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004516176037512055.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,56748000],[2017,67725000],[2018,71790000],[2019,76935000],[2020,41378000],[2021,22311000],[2022,27310000],[2023,26885000],[2024,27422000],[2025,27927000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541401/000154140126000008/esrt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 8122000 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.10157405532775449. Price 4.73; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.17764498715670798 → FY2025 0.16774417149696375. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $19.57 per share

- 2016-11: $20.17 per share

- 2016-12: $20.19 per share

- 2017-01: $20.49 per share

- 2017-02: $21.81 per share

- 2017-03: $20.64 per share

- 2017-04: $20.80 per share

- 2017-05: $20.80 per share

- 2017-06: $20.77 per share

- 2017-07: $20.89 per share

- 2017-08: $20.35 per share

- 2017-09: $20.54 per share

- 2017-10: $20.05 per share

- 2017-11: $20.30 per share

- 2017-12: $20.53 per share

- 2018-01: $19.55 per share

- 2018-02: $16.86 per share

- 2018-03: $16.79 per share

- 2018-04: $17.42 per share

- 2018-05: $16.96 per share

- 2018-06: $17.10 per share

- 2018-07: $16.67 per share

- 2018-08: $17.59 per share

- 2018-09: $16.61 per share

- 2018-10: $15.86 per share

- 2018-11: $16.19 per share

- 2018-12: $14.23 per share

- 2019-01: $15.46 per share

- 2019-02: $15.22 per share

- 2019-03: $15.80 per share

- 2019-04: $15.46 per share

- 2019-05: $15.36 per share

- 2019-06: $14.81 per share

- 2019-07: $14.01 per share

- 2019-08: $14.06 per share

- 2019-09: $14.27 per share

- 2019-10: $14.47 per share

- 2019-11: $13.96 per share

- 2019-12: $13.96 per share

- 2020-01: $13.56 per share

- 2020-02: $11.70 per share

- 2020-03: $8.96 per share

- 2020-04: $8.36 per share

- 2020-05: $6.63 per share

- 2020-06: $7.00 per share

- 2020-07: $6.60 per share

- 2020-08: $6.30 per share

- 2020-09: $6.12 per share

- 2020-10: $5.38 per share

- 2020-11: $9.05 per share

- 2020-12: $9.32 per share

- 2021-01: $9.86 per share

- 2021-02: $11.01 per share

- 2021-03: $11.13 per share

- 2021-04: $11.39 per share

- 2021-05: $11.83 per share

- 2021-06: $12.00 per share

- 2021-07: $11.43 per share

- 2021-08: $10.27 per share

- 2021-09: $10.03 per share

- 2021-10: $9.68 per share

- 2021-11: $9.09 per share

- 2021-12: $8.90 per share

- 2022-01: $8.92 per share

- 2022-02: $9.46 per share

- 2022-03: $9.82 per share

- 2022-04: $8.64 per share

- 2022-05: $8.00 per share

- 2022-06: $7.03 per share

- 2022-07: $8.53 per share

- 2022-08: $6.97 per share

- 2022-09: $6.56 per share

- 2022-10: $7.37 per share

- 2022-11: $7.71 per share

- 2022-12: $6.74 per share

- 2023-01: $8.34 per share

- 2023-02: $7.29 per share

- 2023-03: $6.49 per share

- 2023-04: $6.11 per share

- 2023-05: $6.17 per share

- 2023-06: $7.49 per share

- 2023-07: $8.95 per share

- 2023-08: $8.73 per share

- 2023-09: $8.04 per share

- 2023-10: $8.09 per share

- 2023-11: $8.96 per share

- 2023-12: $9.69 per share

- 2024-01: $9.52 per share

- 2024-02: $9.97 per share

- 2024-03: $10.13 per share

- 2024-04: $9.10 per share

- 2024-05: $9.53 per share

- 2024-06: $9.38 per share

- 2024-07: $10.77 per share

- 2024-08: $10.79 per share

- 2024-09: $11.08 per share

- 2024-10: $10.60 per share

- 2024-11: $10.96 per share

- 2024-12: $10.32 per share

- 2025-01: $9.56 per share

- 2025-02: $9.27 per share

- 2025-03: $7.82 per share

- 2025-04: $7.12 per share

- 2025-05: $7.66 per share

- 2025-06: $8.09 per share

- 2025-07: $7.24 per share

- 2025-08: $7.65 per share

- 2025-09: $7.66 per share

- 2025-10: $7.39 per share

- 2025-11: $7.03 per share

- 2025-12: $6.52 per share

- 2026-01: $6.63 per share

- 2026-02: $5.88 per share

- 2026-03: $5.20 per share

- 2026-04: $5.57 per share

- 2026-05: $5.73 per share

- 2026-06: $5.41 per share

- 2026-07: $5.06 per share

- 2026-08: $4.53 per share

- 2026-09: $4.03 per share

- 2026-10: $4.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $2.87 per share, central $3.14 per share, high $3.49 per share

- FY2017: low $2.69 per share, central $2.95 per share, high $3.30 per share

- FY2018: low $3.13 per share, central $3.40 per share, high $3.77 per share

- FY2019: low $2.44 per share, central $2.72 per share, high $3.08 per share

- FY2020: low $2.85 per share, central $3.09 per share, high $3.41 per share

- FY2021: low $2.27 per share, central $2.46 per share, high $2.72 per share

- FY2022: low $2.26 per share, central $2.49 per share, high $2.79 per share

- FY2023: low $2.70 per share, central $2.94 per share, high $3.27 per share

- FY2024: low $5.22 per share, central $5.82 per share, high $6.62 per share

- FY2025: low $4.72 per share, central $5.32 per share, high $6.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541401/000154140126000008/esrt-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.