# Elastic NV (ESTC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ESTC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:21.682Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $97.24 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 0.72×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -0.30×

- FY2019: -0.37×

- FY2020: -0.40×

- FY2021: -0.21×

- FY2022: -0.20×

- FY2023: -0.21×

- FY2024: -0.10×

- FY2025: -0.04×

- FY2026: -0.02×

- LTM to Jul 2026: -0.01×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -18.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -30.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 75.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 8

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -99.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: -30.4%

- FY2020: -30.1%

- FY2021: -21.4%

- FY2022: -13.6%

- FY2023: -17.4%

- FY2024: -7.7%

- FY2025: -2.9%

- FY2026: -18.9%

- LTM to Jul 2026: -28.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$60M

- Net income, five-year total: -$119M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -18.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.6%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -$192M

- FY2023: -$219M

- FY2024: $76M

- FY2025: -$100M

- FY2026: $375M

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2019 to 2026 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.0% vs -7.7%

- Per-share earnings: -1.65 to 0.59 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Market cap gain: -$1.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$415M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2019

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: $2.24

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.59

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$622M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -7.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -$0.84

- FY2018: -$1.65

- FY2019: -$1.86

- FY2020: -$2.12

- FY2021: -$1.48

- FY2022: -$2.20

- FY2023: -$2.47

- FY2024: $0.59

- FY2025: -$1.04

- FY2026: $3.43

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 1.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 91.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.89×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.29×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -24.8%

- FY2018: -17.4%

- FY2019: -16.1%

- FY2020: -17.0%

- FY2021: -15.6%

- FY2022: -12.8%

- FY2023: -15.6%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -14.4%

- FY2026: 1.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Oct 2021 · "Elastic Sees AI-Driven Platform Momentum Despite Weaker Near-Term Guidance, Wedbush Says" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +3.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:42.896Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-09-06: Elastic (ESTC) Valuation in Focus After Upbeat Earnings and Raised Outlook on AI Strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elastic-estc-valuation-focus-upbeat-113132665.html))

- 2025-10-10: Elastic shares surge as Investor Day highlights AI growth and margin upside ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elastic-shares-surge-investor-day-110456369.html))

- 2026-03-06: Why Elastic (ESTC) Is Down 13.9% After Raising Guidance And Launching New AI Models ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-elastic-estc-down-13-121034343.html))

- 2026-05-29: ESTC Q1 Deep Dive: AI-Driven Commitments Fuel Growth Amid Market Caution ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/estc-q1-deep-dive-ai-090438416.html))

- 2026-08-28: Elastic projects FY 2027 revenue of $1.998B-$2.010B while raising non-GAAP EPS outlook to $3.29-$3.37 ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4637748-elastic-projects-fy-2027-revenue-of-1_998b-2_010b-while-raising-non-gaap-eps-outlook-to-3_29?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +3.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-08.

- FY2018: $160M 

- FY2019: $272M 

- FY2020: $428M 

- FY2021: $608M 

- FY2022: $862M 

- FY2023: $1.1B 

- FY2024: $1.3B 

- FY2025: $1.5B 

- FY2026: $1.7B 

- FY2027: $1.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 75.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-08.

- FY2018: 74.5% 

- FY2019: 71.3% 

- FY2020: 71.3% 

- FY2021: 73.5% 

- FY2022: 73.1% 

- FY2023: 72.3% 

- FY2024: 74.0% 

- FY2025: 74.4% 

- FY2026: 76.1% 

- FY2027: 75.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software application; annual sales are USD 1.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-08); FY2026: revenue 1739331000; grossProfit 1323059000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ESTC.US: Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally. It primarily offers Elasticsearch Platform, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as performs search, analysis, and visualization on that data. The company also provides Elastic search product a distributed, real-time vector database and analytics engine and data store for all types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the platforms; Search & AI, a platform with retrieval algorithms and the ability to integrate with large language models; and elastic security, a security solution that provides unified protection to prevent, detect, and respond to threats. In addition, it offers Elastic Observability, a solution that brings unified datastore, including Logs analytics to search, analyze, and visualize petabytes of structured and unstructured logs; infrastructure monitoring to gain visibility across cloud, on-premises, Kubernetes, serverless, and hosts; Application Performance Monitoring to support native production-grade; digital experience monitoring; large language models; and Elastic Cloud, a cloud-based subscription offering such as Elastic Cloud Hosted and Elastic Cloud Serverless. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74% to 76.1% during 2024–26; it lost 18.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 74%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-08); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 76.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0],[2019,-0.30433535282894086],[2020,-0.30097759361229803],[2021,-0.21354052541919968],[2022,-0.13589526709149868],[2023,-0.1743434451245606],[2024,-0.07705080480102591],[2025,-0.028502832652760917],[2026,-0.18946054761938877],[2027,-0.28373046562483334]]; median -0.18190199637197468. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 73% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-08); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.7353214273388673],[2022,0.7307502313381433],[2023,0.7225172569596132]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 2 of 10 years; bought back USD 340.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-08); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3450000; owner earnings 76269000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-08); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 5092000; owner earnings 374508000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-08); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,500000],[2020,58629000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-08); FY2026: cash repurchases 340088000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 11.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ESTC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.842 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 6 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-08); Closing price 97.24 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 16.22195990985627; price multiple 5.994343503519456. FY2026 cash earnings/share 3.4928680980908475. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-10: $68.00 per share

- 2018-11: $71.45 per share

- 2018-12: $71.48 per share

- 2019-01: $85.00 per share

- 2019-02: $90.56 per share

- 2019-03: $79.87 per share

- 2019-04: $85.55 per share

- 2019-05: $82.05 per share

- 2019-06: $74.66 per share

- 2019-07: $98.83 per share

- 2019-08: $87.89 per share

- 2019-09: $82.34 per share

- 2019-10: $72.01 per share

- 2019-11: $79.41 per share

- 2019-12: $64.30 per share

- 2020-01: $64.88 per share

- 2020-02: $73.86 per share

- 2020-03: $55.81 per share

- 2020-04: $64.14 per share

- 2020-05: $85.92 per share

- 2020-06: $92.21 per share

- 2020-07: $96.19 per share

- 2020-08: $108.58 per share

- 2020-09: $107.89 per share

- 2020-10: $101.41 per share

- 2020-11: $123.80 per share

- 2020-12: $146.13 per share

- 2021-01: $151.96 per share

- 2021-02: $134.39 per share

- 2021-03: $111.20 per share

- 2021-04: $120.62 per share

- 2021-05: $118.21 per share

- 2021-06: $145.76 per share

- 2021-07: $148.06 per share

- 2021-08: $159.55 per share

- 2021-09: $148.99 per share

- 2021-10: $173.51 per share

- 2021-11: $155.46 per share

- 2021-12: $123.09 per share

- 2022-01: $93.25 per share

- 2022-02: $86.65 per share

- 2022-03: $88.95 per share

- 2022-04: $76.14 per share

- 2022-05: $61.65 per share

- 2022-06: $67.67 per share

- 2022-07: $79.89 per share

- 2022-08: $83.91 per share

- 2022-09: $71.74 per share

- 2022-10: $63.95 per share

- 2022-11: $61.19 per share

- 2022-12: $51.50 per share

- 2023-01: $58.84 per share

- 2023-02: $59.02 per share

- 2023-03: $57.90 per share

- 2023-04: $57.25 per share

- 2023-05: $72.82 per share

- 2023-06: $64.12 per share

- 2023-07: $66.45 per share

- 2023-08: $61.88 per share

- 2023-09: $81.24 per share

- 2023-10: $75.04 per share

- 2023-11: $80.36 per share

- 2023-12: $112.70 per share

- 2024-01: $117.06 per share

- 2024-02: $133.81 per share

- 2024-03: $100.24 per share

- 2024-04: $102.22 per share

- 2024-05: $104.05 per share

- 2024-06: $113.91 per share

- 2024-07: $109.67 per share

- 2024-08: $76.19 per share

- 2024-09: $76.76 per share

- 2024-10: $80.23 per share

- 2024-11: $109.46 per share

- 2024-12: $99.08 per share

- 2025-01: $112.58 per share

- 2025-02: $116.36 per share

- 2025-03: $89.10 per share

- 2025-04: $86.20 per share

- 2025-05: $80.87 per share

- 2025-06: $84.33 per share

- 2025-07: $83.70 per share

- 2025-08: $85.06 per share

- 2025-09: $84.49 per share

- 2025-10: $89.22 per share

- 2025-11: $70.53 per share

- 2025-12: $75.44 per share

- 2026-01: $65.93 per share

- 2026-02: $52.07 per share

- 2026-03: $49.99 per share

- 2026-04: $46.43 per share

- 2026-05: $64.70 per share

- 2026-06: $57.02 per share

- 2026-07: $65.79 per share

- 2026-08: $97.55 per share

- 2026-09: $91.70 per share

- 2026-10: $97.24 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm); period 2026-04-30, filed 2026-06-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.