# Etsy (ETSY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ETSY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:23.046Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $89.18 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $56.08 per share, central $62.21 per share, high $70.38 per share. Buy at or below the central value $62.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:23.046Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.25×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: -0.26×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 56.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 70.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 71.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 49.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.4%

- FY2017: 13.6%

- FY2018: 91.7%

- FY2019: 29.8%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: 70.5%

- FY2022: -97.5%

- FY2023: 50.2%

- FY2024: 62.1%

- FY2025: 76.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.47×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $840M

- Net income, five-year total: $573M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.09×

- FY2022: 0.91×

- FY2023: 1.17×

- FY2024: 1.21×

- FY2025: 1.29×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.4% vs 62.1%

- Per-share earnings: -0.26 to 2.19 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Market cap gain: $4.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $2.46

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.26

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.19

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 4.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 62.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.26

- FY2017: $0.67

- FY2018: $0.61

- FY2019: $0.76

- FY2020: $2.56

- FY2021: $3.36

- FY2022: -$5.48

- FY2023: $2.19

- FY2024: $2.30

- FY2025: $1.31

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -18.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 35.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.25×

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -13.4%

- FY2017: 2.1%

- FY2018: -13.5%

- FY2019: -7.2%

- FY2020: -13.7%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -52.3%

- FY2023: -14.8%

- FY2024: -18.6%

- FY2025: -18.8%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 68% since Nov 2021 · "Etsy falls after Opco lowers estimates on higher gas prices" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +2.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:43.217Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Etsy posts second-quarter revenue beat amid higher spending on AI, marketing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etsy-posts-second-quarter-revenue-114806709.html))

- 2025-10-29: Etsy taps insider as CEO, forecasts softer core sales amid tariff woes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/etsy-taps-insider-ceo-forecasts-173337429.html))

- 2026-02-24: Etsy Refocuses On Core Marketplace As Depop Sale Reshapes Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etsy-refocuses-core-marketplace-depop-100940569.html))

- 2026-03-25: Etsy falls after Opco lowers estimates on higher gas prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/etsy-falls-opco-lowers-estimates-143515124.html))

- 2026-04-29: Etsy Q1 2026 earnings beat revenue estimates on GMS growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/etsy-q1-2026-earnings-beat-132225112.html))

- 2026-05-05: Etsy (ETSY) Valuation Check As Q1 Turnaround And Depop Sale Plan Lift Investor Confidence ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/etsy-etsy-valuation-check-q1-071322506.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000019/etsy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $365M 

- FY2017: $441M 

- FY2018: $604M 

- FY2019: $818M 

- FY2020: $1.7B 

- FY2021: $2.3B 

- FY2022: $2.6B 

- FY2023: $2.7B 

- FY2024: $2.8B 

- FY2025: $2.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 71.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000019/etsy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 66.2% 

- FY2017: 65.8% 

- FY2018: 68.4% 

- FY2019: 66.9% 

- FY2020: 73.1% 

- FY2021: 71.9% 

- FY2022: 71.0% 

- FY2023: 69.8% 

- FY2024: 72.4% 

- FY2025: 71.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet retail; annual sales are USD 2.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000019/etsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 2883501000; grossProfit 2065701000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ETSY.US: Etsy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Etsy and Depop segments. The company operates Etsy marketplace that connects artisans with various consumers; and Depop, a fashion resale marketplace. It also provides marketplace activities, including transaction offsite advertising, payments processing, and listing fees, as well as from optional seller services, which include on-site advertising and shipping labels. The company was formerly known as Indieco, Inc changed its name to Etsy, Inc. in June 2006. Etsy, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 69.8% to 72.4% during 2023–25; it earns 56.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 69.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 72.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000019/etsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 71.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.14389610255028548],[2017,0.13554378168973966],[2018,0.9166636023778881],[2019,0.29819292286915067],[2020,8.398944812537508],[2021,0.704520907267397],[2022,-0.9754048231939271],[2023,0.5024228746658336],[2024,0.6206920629427751],[2025,0.7605438804095586]]; median 0.5615574688043043. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 776.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13156000; owner earnings 95841000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 20556000; owner earnings 83677000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 15278000; owner earnings 128647000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 7110000; owner earnings 400325000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 30107000; owner earnings 537667000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 39908000; owner earnings 358983000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 43498000; owner earnings 367857000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000019/etsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 54664000; owner earnings 210163000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,9791000],[2020,25319000],[2021,22706000],[2022,0],[2023,14228000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000019/etsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 776899000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ETSY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.375 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07664374324521395. Price 89.18; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.5933015885212982 → FY2025 1.6933061540196916. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $12.98 per share

- 2016-11: $12.40 per share

- 2016-12: $11.78 per share

- 2017-01: $12.61 per share

- 2017-02: $12.12 per share

- 2017-03: $10.63 per share

- 2017-04: $10.76 per share

- 2017-05: $13.41 per share

- 2017-06: $15.00 per share

- 2017-07: $14.37 per share

- 2017-08: $16.37 per share

- 2017-09: $16.88 per share

- 2017-10: $16.70 per share

- 2017-11: $16.46 per share

- 2017-12: $20.45 per share

- 2018-01: $18.76 per share

- 2018-02: $25.31 per share

- 2018-03: $28.06 per share

- 2018-04: $29.94 per share

- 2018-05: $32.34 per share

- 2018-06: $42.19 per share

- 2018-07: $40.86 per share

- 2018-08: $48.69 per share

- 2018-09: $51.38 per share

- 2018-10: $42.52 per share

- 2018-11: $54.04 per share

- 2018-12: $47.57 per share

- 2019-01: $54.65 per share

- 2019-02: $71.27 per share

- 2019-03: $67.22 per share

- 2019-04: $67.54 per share

- 2019-05: $62.31 per share

- 2019-06: $61.37 per share

- 2019-07: $67.02 per share

- 2019-08: $52.79 per share

- 2019-09: $56.50 per share

- 2019-10: $44.49 per share

- 2019-11: $43.39 per share

- 2019-12: $44.30 per share

- 2020-01: $48.81 per share

- 2020-02: $57.81 per share

- 2020-03: $38.44 per share

- 2020-04: $64.87 per share

- 2020-05: $80.98 per share

- 2020-06: $106.23 per share

- 2020-07: $118.38 per share

- 2020-08: $119.70 per share

- 2020-09: $121.63 per share

- 2020-10: $121.59 per share

- 2020-11: $160.70 per share

- 2020-12: $177.91 per share

- 2021-01: $199.09 per share

- 2021-02: $220.27 per share

- 2021-03: $201.67 per share

- 2021-04: $198.79 per share

- 2021-05: $164.73 per share

- 2021-06: $205.84 per share

- 2021-07: $183.51 per share

- 2021-08: $216.26 per share

- 2021-09: $207.96 per share

- 2021-10: $250.69 per share

- 2021-11: $274.58 per share

- 2021-12: $218.94 per share

- 2022-01: $157.08 per share

- 2022-02: $154.89 per share

- 2022-03: $124.28 per share

- 2022-04: $93.19 per share

- 2022-05: $81.12 per share

- 2022-06: $73.21 per share

- 2022-07: $103.72 per share

- 2022-08: $105.61 per share

- 2022-09: $100.13 per share

- 2022-10: $93.91 per share

- 2022-11: $132.09 per share

- 2022-12: $119.78 per share

- 2023-01: $137.58 per share

- 2023-02: $121.41 per share

- 2023-03: $111.33 per share

- 2023-04: $101.03 per share

- 2023-05: $81.05 per share

- 2023-06: $84.61 per share

- 2023-07: $101.65 per share

- 2023-08: $73.57 per share

- 2023-09: $64.58 per share

- 2023-10: $62.30 per share

- 2023-11: $75.81 per share

- 2023-12: $81.05 per share

- 2024-01: $66.56 per share

- 2024-02: $71.69 per share

- 2024-03: $68.72 per share

- 2024-04: $68.67 per share

- 2024-05: $63.47 per share

- 2024-06: $58.98 per share

- 2024-07: $65.14 per share

- 2024-08: $55.09 per share

- 2024-09: $55.53 per share

- 2024-10: $51.44 per share

- 2024-11: $54.86 per share

- 2024-12: $52.89 per share

- 2025-01: $54.91 per share

- 2025-02: $51.19 per share

- 2025-03: $47.18 per share

- 2025-04: $43.48 per share

- 2025-05: $55.35 per share

- 2025-06: $50.16 per share

- 2025-07: $58.27 per share

- 2025-08: $53.01 per share

- 2025-09: $66.39 per share

- 2025-10: $62.00 per share

- 2025-11: $54.22 per share

- 2025-12: $55.44 per share

- 2026-01: $52.96 per share

- 2026-02: $54.88 per share

- 2026-03: $49.98 per share

- 2026-04: $64.34 per share

- 2026-05: $67.92 per share

- 2026-06: $75.33 per share

- 2026-07: $81.68 per share

- 2026-08: $81.33 per share

- 2026-09: $71.49 per share

- 2026-10: $89.18 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $16.23 per share, central $17.59 per share, high $19.40 per share

- FY2020: low $33.72 per share, central $36.72 per share, high $40.70 per share

- FY2021: low $44.09 per share, central $49.29 per share, high $56.21 per share

- FY2022: low $43.62 per share, central $48.41 per share, high $54.79 per share

- FY2023: low $41.51 per share, central $46.16 per share, high $52.34 per share

- FY2024: low $37.99 per share, central $42.20 per share, high $47.80 per share

- FY2025: low $45.76 per share, central $50.33 per share, high $56.42 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000019/etsy-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.