# Evolution (EVO.ST)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EVO.ST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:11.957Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: SEK. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: SEK 796.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low SEK 1,062.63 per share, central SEK 1,488.81 per share, high SEK 1,736.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value SEK 1,488.81 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:11.957Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.2% at the stated quote. About 16.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SE 10-year bond 3.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.30×

- FY2017: 0.37×

- FY2018: 0.36×

- FY2019: 0.43×

- FY2020: 0.53×

- FY2021: 0.61×

- FY2022: 0.62×

- FY2023: 0.64×

- FY2024: 0.64×

- FY2025: 0.59×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 69.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 100.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 100.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 32.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 69.0%

- FY2017: 91.3%

- FY2018: 99.7%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 39.7%

- FY2021: 91.9%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 4.8B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 4.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 95.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 33.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 49.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 1.07×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 91.3% vs 122.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.17 to 5.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: EUR 10B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 53.3%

- Per-share value change: EUR 5.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.17

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 5.32

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.94

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 3.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 5.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 91.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 0.17

- FY2017: EUR 0.34

- FY2018: EUR 0.45

- FY2019: EUR 0.82

- FY2020: EUR 1.44

- FY2021: EUR 2.72

- FY2022: EUR 3.88

- FY2023: EUR 4.70

- FY2024: EUR 6.02

- FY2025: EUR 5.32

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.20×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.75×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.0%

- FY2017: -0.2%

- FY2018: -6.9%

- FY2019: -6.0%

- FY2020: -1.0%

- FY2021: 0.2%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: -3.2%

- FY2024: -1.1%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since May 2023 · sales -4.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.047Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -4.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300SUH6ZR1RF6TA88/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: EUR 115M 

- FY2017: EUR 178M 

- FY2018: EUR 245M 

- FY2019: EUR 366M 

- FY2020: EUR 561M 

- FY2021: EUR 1.1B 

- FY2022: EUR 1.5B 

- FY2023: EUR 1.8B 

- FY2024: EUR 2.2B 

- FY2025: EUR 2.1B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gambling; annual sales are EUR 2.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 2118207000; grossProfit 2118207000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EVO.ST: Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand. It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 100% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300SUH6ZR1RF6TA88/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.6904745531498283],[2017,0.9132514502801292],[2018,0.9966577366006744],[2019,1.3514504992901897],[2020,0.3965829586815904],[2021,0.9189176087909536],[2022,1.2207962764355746],[2023,1.3716907641664107],[2024,1.224941728399152],[2025,1.021733871934016]]; median 1.0091958042673452. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 509.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 4846453.177510671; upkeep 26335546.82248933; owner earnings 15164453.177510671. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.31959300614268793.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 7195000; upkeep 13754000; owner earnings 62129000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11580743292182395.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 9829656.727677666; upkeep 23300343.272322334; owner earnings 78356656.72767767. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12544762804058698.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2019: growth capex 4632000; upkeep 25476000; owner earnings 145842200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03176035468472088.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2020: growth capex 4373000; upkeep 32513000; owner earnings 274628200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.015923346546348846.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 61592000; owner earnings 610927000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 96939000; owner earnings 830889400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 91824000; owner earnings 1023628600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300SUH6ZR1RF6TA88/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 136713000; owner earnings 1230791600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 65810118; owner earnings 1138106282. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,11510000],[2017,16187000],[2018,32373000],[2019,43164000],[2020,76140000],[2021,144382000],[2022,302751000],[2023,427398000],[2024,559266000],[2025,583227269]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: cash repurchases 509566676 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 47.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EVO.ST SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 47.119 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 50.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03938526577024354. Price 796.8; FX 11.157014925373135; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.09377611978623658 → FY2025 5.696529855938303. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (SEK per share)

- 2016-10: SEK 52.10 per share

- 2016-11: SEK 52.80 per share

- 2016-12: SEK 51.90 per share

- 2017-01: SEK 56.20 per share

- 2017-02: SEK 67.50 per share

- 2017-03: SEK 65.40 per share

- 2017-04: SEK 78.20 per share

- 2017-05: SEK 81.80 per share

- 2017-06: SEK 88.08 per share

- 2017-07: SEK 99.78 per share

- 2017-08: SEK 96.26 per share

- 2017-09: SEK 103.80 per share

- 2017-10: SEK 120.10 per share

- 2017-11: SEK 110.60 per share

- 2017-12: SEK 116.10 per share

- 2018-01: SEK 122.30 per share

- 2018-02: SEK 110.70 per share

- 2018-03: SEK 91.48 per share

- 2018-04: SEK 110.40 per share

- 2018-05: SEK 111.90 per share

- 2018-06: SEK 111.40 per share

- 2018-07: SEK 141.80 per share

- 2018-08: SEK 140.10 per share

- 2018-09: SEK 126.70 per share

- 2018-10: SEK 137.70 per share

- 2018-11: SEK 108.80 per share

- 2018-12: SEK 101.90 per share

- 2019-01: SEK 108.40 per share

- 2019-02: SEK 137.90 per share

- 2019-03: SEK 146.50 per share

- 2019-04: SEK 194.80 per share

- 2019-05: SEK 180.60 per share

- 2019-06: SEK 183.80 per share

- 2019-07: SEK 211.00 per share

- 2019-08: SEK 184.20 per share

- 2019-09: SEK 193.60 per share

- 2019-10: SEK 230.50 per share

- 2019-11: SEK 253.00 per share

- 2019-12: SEK 282.00 per share

- 2020-01: SEK 298.00 per share

- 2020-02: SEK 351.00 per share

- 2020-03: SEK 338.00 per share

- 2020-04: SEK 444.90 per share

- 2020-05: SEK 555.80 per share

- 2020-06: SEK 555.60 per share

- 2020-07: SEK 598.40 per share

- 2020-08: SEK 647.80 per share

- 2020-09: SEK 594.80 per share

- 2020-10: SEK 661.00 per share

- 2020-11: SEK 733.20 per share

- 2020-12: SEK 834.80 per share

- 2021-01: SEK 815.60 per share

- 2021-02: SEK 1,051.50 per share

- 2021-03: SEK 1,286.00 per share

- 2021-04: SEK 1,672.00 per share

- 2021-05: SEK 1,587.40 per share

- 2021-06: SEK 1,352.40 per share

- 2021-07: SEK 1,499.60 per share

- 2021-08: SEK 1,390.40 per share

- 2021-09: SEK 1,334.60 per share

- 2021-10: SEK 1,389.20 per share

- 2021-11: SEK 950.80 per share

- 2021-12: SEK 1,286.20 per share

- 2022-01: SEK 1,135.40 per share

- 2022-02: SEK 1,100.80 per share

- 2022-03: SEK 968.10 per share

- 2022-04: SEK 1,026.40 per share

- 2022-05: SEK 1,021.40 per share

- 2022-06: SEK 930.10 per share

- 2022-07: SEK 978.40 per share

- 2022-08: SEK 858.50 per share

- 2022-09: SEK 886.80 per share

- 2022-10: SEK 1,033.00 per share

- 2022-11: SEK 1,067.00 per share

- 2022-12: SEK 1,015.40 per share

- 2023-01: SEK 1,170.20 per share

- 2023-02: SEK 1,266.60 per share

- 2023-03: SEK 1,388.20 per share

- 2023-04: SEK 1,365.40 per share

- 2023-05: SEK 1,425.60 per share

- 2023-06: SEK 1,365.80 per share

- 2023-07: SEK 1,298.00 per share

- 2023-08: SEK 1,186.20 per share

- 2023-09: SEK 1,106.40 per share

- 2023-10: SEK 991.90 per share

- 2023-11: SEK 1,087.40 per share

- 2023-12: SEK 1,202.20 per share

- 2024-01: SEK 1,223.00 per share

- 2024-02: SEK 1,341.40 per share

- 2024-03: SEK 1,330.60 per share

- 2024-04: SEK 1,232.00 per share

- 2024-05: SEK 1,128.00 per share

- 2024-06: SEK 1,104.00 per share

- 2024-07: SEK 1,037.50 per share

- 2024-08: SEK 1,066.50 per share

- 2024-09: SEK 998.00 per share

- 2024-10: SEK 1,005.00 per share

- 2024-11: SEK 952.00 per share

- 2024-12: SEK 852.80 per share

- 2025-01: SEK 853.60 per share

- 2025-02: SEK 823.00 per share

- 2025-03: SEK 746.00 per share

- 2025-04: SEK 674.20 per share

- 2025-05: SEK 658.00 per share

- 2025-06: SEK 751.60 per share

- 2025-07: SEK 872.40 per share

- 2025-08: SEK 820.00 per share

- 2025-09: SEK 773.40 per share

- 2025-10: SEK 635.20 per share

- 2025-11: SEK 645.20 per share

- 2025-12: SEK 629.80 per share

- 2026-01: SEK 578.60 per share

- 2026-02: SEK 548.40 per share

- 2026-03: SEK 585.20 per share

- 2026-04: SEK 642.40 per share

- 2026-05: SEK 696.80 per share

- 2026-06: SEK 665.20 per share

- 2026-07: SEK 728.20 per share

- 2026-08: SEK 832.60 per share

- 2026-09: SEK 781.60 per share

- 2026-10: SEK 800.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (SEK per share)

- FY2016: low SEK 17.32 per share, central SEK 19.51 per share, high SEK 22.42 per share

- FY2017: low SEK 29.28 per share, central SEK 32.93 per share, high SEK 37.79 per share

- FY2018: low SEK 41.96 per share, central SEK 47.07 per share, high SEK 53.88 per share

- FY2019: low SEK 88.32 per share, central SEK 99.02 per share, high SEK 113.28 per share

- FY2020: low SEK 132.64 per share, central SEK 149.29 per share, high SEK 171.45 per share

- FY2021: low SEK 252.73 per share, central SEK 284.93 per share, high SEK 327.79 per share

- FY2022: low SEK 523.92 per share, central SEK 737.35 per share, high SEK 861.63 per share

- FY2023: low SEK 770.33 per share, central SEK 1,079.34 per share, high SEK 1,259.28 per share

- FY2024: low SEK 965.44 per share, central SEK 1,361.96 per share, high SEK 1,592.85 per share

- FY2025: low SEK 958.38 per share, central SEK 1,350.58 per share, high SEK 1,578.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:56.066Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300SUH6ZR1RF6TA88/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/EVO-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.