# Exail Technologies (EXA.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXA.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 125.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 33.62 per share, central EUR 34.58 per share, high EUR 35.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 34.58 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.4% at the stated quote. About 3.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 1.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: -0.05×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 54.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 53.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -1.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.1%

- FY2017: -28.6%

- FY2018: 1.3%

- FY2019: 3.9%

- FY2020: 11.3%

- FY2021: 6.5%

- FY2022: 1.2%

- FY2023: 1.9%

- FY2024: 5.3%

- FY2025: 7.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 29M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 54M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 12.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 53.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.60×

- FY2022: 1.91×

- FY2023: 1.30×

- FY2024: 3.22×

- FY2025: 2.18×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.3% vs 5.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.01 to 0.18 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.7%

- Market cap gain: EUR 1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 63M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 38.7%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.18

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.40

- Average buyback yield: 7.4%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: EUR 395M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 52M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 0.01

- FY2017: EUR -1.19

- FY2018: EUR -0.14

- FY2019: EUR 1.55

- FY2020: EUR -0.43

- FY2021: EUR 2.70

- FY2022: EUR -0.47

- FY2023: EUR 0.99

- FY2024: EUR -0.21

- FY2025: EUR 0.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.38×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 30.07×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.99×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.3%

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: 0.2%

- FY2019: -2.2%

- FY2020: -10.1%

- FY2021: 16.5%

- FY2022: -6.5%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -11.4%

- FY2025: -6.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 41% a year for ten years · sales +28.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.249Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 41% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +28.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 281M 

- FY2017: EUR 277M 

- FY2018: EUR 296M 

- FY2019: EUR 275M 

- FY2020: EUR 151M 

- FY2021: EUR 116M 

- FY2022: EUR 190M 

- FY2023: EUR 323M 

- FY2024: EUR 373M 

- FY2025: EUR 479M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 53.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 41.1% 

- FY2017: 43.7% 

- FY2018: 46.7% 

- FY2019: 48.3% 

- FY2020: 80.2% 

- FY2021: 89.7% 

- FY2022: 57.0% 

- FY2023: 57.3% 

- FY2024: 55.4% 

- FY2025: 53.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are EUR 478.5 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2025: revenue 478545000; grossProfit 257388000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXA.PA: Exail Technologies provides robotics, maritime, navigation, aerospace, and photonics technologies solutions in France, the rest of Europe, Africa, Americas, Oceania, and Asia. The company operates through the Navigation & Maritime Robotics and Advanced Technologies segments. It offers components, products, and systems. The company is also involved in the sale of navigation systems, positioning systems, and sonars; and the commercialization of drones and autonomous drone systems for maritime applications. In addition, it develops and sells photonic and quantum components, such as specialty optical fibers, optical modulators, quantum measurement instruments; and products using onboard communication equipment, simulators, and autonomous decision-making technologies. Exail Technologies was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 53.8% to 57.3% during 2023–25; it earns 4.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 57.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 55.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 53.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.10083124236853758],[2017,-0.28619686274509804],[2018,0.013008949645948072],[2019,0.03908278226794024],[2020,0.1127000551205166],[2021,0.06533301087914294],[2022,0.011723191394493368],[2023,0.019482369520152767],[2024,0.05292256888078454],[2025,0.0772708955972341]]; median 0.04600267557436239. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 17641000; owner earnings 24070000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 25292000; owner earnings 27640800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 9360000; owner earnings 21811600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 14331000; owner earnings 6493826.248941574. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,4320000],[2019,4320000],[2020,4319000],[2021,5509000],[2022,584000],[2023,128000],[2024,366000],[2025,583000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 41.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXA.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 41.377 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 41% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:09.793Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.5959108031451998. Price 125; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.1281586349766426 → FY2025 0.38271017497298293. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 14.56 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 14.98 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 15.70 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 16.72 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 15.08 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 16.44 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 15.73 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 16.90 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 17.64 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 15.60 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 14.82 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 15.68 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 14.30 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 12.27 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 11.64 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 13.30 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 12.68 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 11.18 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 12.68 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 10.37 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 10.58 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 11.15 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 10.58 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 10.03 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 7.41 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 7.12 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 6.25 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 8.20 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 8.01 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 9.79 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 11.10 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 10.40 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 12.10 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 10.71 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 10.16 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 10.92 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 11.16 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 11.83 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 12.66 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 12.78 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 9.82 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 9.47 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 9.75 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 10.25 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 10.98 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 9.01 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 9.08 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 8.75 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 8.92 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 10.08 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 9.41 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 11.29 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 11.93 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 12.07 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 11.53 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 11.77 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 11.34 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 11.74 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 11.15 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 11.25 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 11.71 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 11.28 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 16.13 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 15.17 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 14.58 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 18.48 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 18.58 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 17.63 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 16.72 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 18.91 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 19.75 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 16.61 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 19.54 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 20.04 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 19.68 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 19.70 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 20.19 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 18.60 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 18.65 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 17.39 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 17.90 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 18.54 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 19.68 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 17.50 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 16.88 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 17.70 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 19.30 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 21.40 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 21.70 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 22.40 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 19.52 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 22.15 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 17.16 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 16.54 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 17.86 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 17.50 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 18.00 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 17.60 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 17.36 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 19.50 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 26.85 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 37.60 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 47.35 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 67.20 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 99.00 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 118.60 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 114.20 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 101.60 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 83.10 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 75.80 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 81.50 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 110.60 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 124.20 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 119.00 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 123.60 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 143.70 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 120.10 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 124.60 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 124.40 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 125.10 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 125.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 3.75 per share, central EUR 3.93 per share, high EUR 4.17 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 14.90 per share, central EUR 16.83 per share, high EUR 19.41 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 13.99 per share, central EUR 14.95 per share, high EUR 15.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:45:53.407Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.