# Exelon (EXC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:00.145Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $42.48 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $26.04 per share, central $29.68 per share, high $34.36 per share. Buy at or below the central value $29.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:00.145Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.8% at the stated quote. About 7.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 32.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: 6.2%

- FY2019: 5.6%

- FY2020: 3.7%

- FY2021: 4.0%

- FY2022: 4.9%

- FY2023: 5.5%

- FY2024: 6.0%

- FY2025: 6.0%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 5.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.88×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $10B

- Net income, five-year total: $11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.76×

- FY2022: 0.82×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.79×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.2% vs 6.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.81 to 2.45 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Market cap gain: $12B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$4.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.64

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.81

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.45

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $3.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $23B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.87

- FY2017: $2.83

- FY2018: $1.48

- FY2019: $3.01

- FY2020: $2.01

- FY2021: $1.74

- FY2022: $2.20

- FY2023: $2.34

- FY2024: $2.45

- FY2025: $2.74

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.29×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.26×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.23×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.4%

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: -5.5%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -1.8%

- FY2021: -1.0%

- FY2022: -2.8%

- FY2023: -2.3%

- FY2024: -2.9%

- FY2025: -3.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.6% a year for ten years · sales +4.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.638Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-18: Exelon (NasdaqGS:EXC) Promotes Khouzami To EVP As Energy Demand Expected To Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exelon-nasdaqgs-exc-promotes-khouzami-172734987.html))

- 2025-07-31: Earnings call transcript: Exelon Q2 2025 misses EPS forecast, stock dips ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-exelon-q2-2025-misses-eps-forecast-stock-dips-93CH-4164115))

- 2026-01-07: Exelon's Regulatory Strength Offset by Affordability Pressures, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exelon-apos-regulatory-strength-offset-174048277.html))

- 2026-02-12: Exelon Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss, Capex Plan Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exelon-q4-earnings-beat-estimates-164500287.html))

- 2026-05-16: Exelon Weighs Efficiency Gains And Data Center Demands On Grid Plans ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/exelon-weighs-efficiency-gains-data-031925721.html))

- 2026-07-24: Exelon (EXC) Time Of Day Pricing Launch Puts Valuation Back In Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/exelon-exc-time-day-pricing-051318695.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $34B 

- FY2018: $36B 

- FY2019: $34B 

- FY2020: $33B 

- FY2021: $18B 

- FY2022: $19B 

- FY2023: $22B 

- FY2024: $23B 

- FY2025: $24B 

- FY2026: $25B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 24.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 27.9% 

- FY2018: 27.7% 

- FY2019: 30.0% 

- FY2020: 28.8% 

- FY2021: 39.1% 

- FY2022: 42.1% 

- FY2023: 41.1% 

- FY2024: 40.8% 

- FY2025: 27.9% 

- FY2026: 24.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated electric; annual sales are USD 24.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 24258000000; grossProfit 6773000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXC.US: Exelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy distribution and transmission businesses in the United States. The company is involved in the purchase and regulated retail sale of electricity and natural gas; transmission and distribution of electricity; and distribution of natural gas to retail customers. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and public authorities and electric railroads customers. Exelon Corporation was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.9% to 41.1% during 2023–25; it earns 5.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 41.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 27.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.07605379922351636],[2018,0.06219546347579679],[2019,0.05550684234914522],[2020,0.03661306680875038],[2021,0.03981375507460688],[2022,0.049059777482209084],[2023,0.05529212097442426],[2024,0.05983178179954426],[2025,0.060451648185695935],[2026,0.05876644588355234]]; median 0.05713664411634878. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 5.1% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 2989000000; upkeep 5576000000; owner earnings 1134000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.6358024691358026.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 2157000000; upkeep 5427000000; owner earnings 3770000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5721485411140583.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 2219000000; upkeep 5375000000; owner earnings 2010000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1039800995024875.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 7248000000; owner earnings 1468000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8048000000; owner earnings 442000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 7981000000; owner earnings 1298000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 3233194478.1185193; upkeep 3913805521.8814807; owner earnings 1789194478.1185193. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.8070671006756522.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 3902000000; upkeep 3506000000; owner earnings 2328000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.6761168384879725.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 3501000000; upkeep 3596000000; owner earnings 2460000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.423170731707317.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 4299539644.920346; upkeep 4229460355.0796537; owner earnings 2181539644.9203463. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.970873944432641.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Incremental return on capital 0.05124855386136779, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,1166000000],[2017,1236000000],[2018,1332000000],[2019,1408000000],[2020,1492000000],[2021,1497000000],[2022,1334000000],[2023,1433000000],[2024,1524000000],[2025,1617000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.06999999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"The Registrants could be negatively affected by the impacts of weather (All Registrants)." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); The Registrants could be negatively affected by the impacts of weather (All Registrants).

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06737747801521998. Price 42.48; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.8123205850544655 → FY2025 2.15567158588967. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $23.19 per share

- 2016-12: $25.31 per share

- 2017-01: $25.59 per share

- 2017-02: $26.18 per share

- 2017-03: $25.66 per share

- 2017-04: $24.70 per share

- 2017-05: $25.90 per share

- 2017-06: $25.73 per share

- 2017-07: $27.35 per share

- 2017-08: $27.01 per share

- 2017-09: $26.87 per share

- 2017-10: $28.68 per share

- 2017-11: $29.75 per share

- 2017-12: $28.11 per share

- 2018-01: $27.47 per share

- 2018-02: $26.42 per share

- 2018-03: $27.82 per share

- 2018-04: $28.30 per share

- 2018-05: $29.52 per share

- 2018-06: $30.39 per share

- 2018-07: $30.31 per share

- 2018-08: $31.18 per share

- 2018-09: $31.14 per share

- 2018-10: $31.25 per share

- 2018-11: $33.09 per share

- 2018-12: $32.17 per share

- 2019-01: $34.07 per share

- 2019-02: $34.66 per share

- 2019-03: $35.76 per share

- 2019-04: $36.34 per share

- 2019-05: $34.29 per share

- 2019-06: $34.19 per share

- 2019-07: $32.14 per share

- 2019-08: $33.71 per share

- 2019-09: $34.46 per share

- 2019-10: $32.45 per share

- 2019-11: $31.67 per share

- 2019-12: $32.52 per share

- 2020-01: $33.94 per share

- 2020-02: $30.75 per share

- 2020-03: $26.26 per share

- 2020-04: $26.45 per share

- 2020-05: $27.33 per share

- 2020-06: $25.88 per share

- 2020-07: $27.54 per share

- 2020-08: $26.33 per share

- 2020-09: $25.51 per share

- 2020-10: $28.45 per share

- 2020-11: $29.29 per share

- 2020-12: $30.11 per share

- 2021-01: $29.64 per share

- 2021-02: $27.53 per share

- 2021-03: $31.20 per share

- 2021-04: $32.05 per share

- 2021-05: $32.18 per share

- 2021-06: $31.60 per share

- 2021-07: $33.38 per share

- 2021-08: $34.96 per share

- 2021-09: $34.48 per share

- 2021-10: $37.94 per share

- 2021-11: $37.61 per share

- 2021-12: $41.20 per share

- 2022-01: $41.33 per share

- 2022-02: $42.56 per share

- 2022-03: $47.63 per share

- 2022-04: $46.78 per share

- 2022-05: $49.15 per share

- 2022-06: $45.32 per share

- 2022-07: $46.49 per share

- 2022-08: $43.91 per share

- 2022-09: $37.46 per share

- 2022-10: $38.59 per share

- 2022-11: $41.37 per share

- 2022-12: $43.23 per share

- 2023-01: $42.19 per share

- 2023-02: $40.39 per share

- 2023-03: $41.89 per share

- 2023-04: $42.44 per share

- 2023-05: $39.65 per share

- 2023-06: $40.74 per share

- 2023-07: $41.86 per share

- 2023-08: $40.12 per share

- 2023-09: $37.79 per share

- 2023-10: $38.94 per share

- 2023-11: $38.51 per share

- 2023-12: $35.90 per share

- 2024-01: $34.81 per share

- 2024-02: $35.84 per share

- 2024-03: $37.57 per share

- 2024-04: $37.58 per share

- 2024-05: $37.55 per share

- 2024-06: $34.61 per share

- 2024-07: $37.20 per share

- 2024-08: $38.09 per share

- 2024-09: $40.55 per share

- 2024-10: $39.30 per share

- 2024-11: $39.56 per share

- 2024-12: $37.64 per share

- 2025-01: $40.00 per share

- 2025-02: $44.20 per share

- 2025-03: $46.08 per share

- 2025-04: $46.90 per share

- 2025-05: $43.82 per share

- 2025-06: $43.42 per share

- 2025-07: $44.94 per share

- 2025-08: $43.68 per share

- 2025-09: $45.01 per share

- 2025-10: $46.12 per share

- 2025-11: $47.12 per share

- 2025-12: $43.59 per share

- 2026-01: $44.78 per share

- 2026-02: $49.47 per share

- 2026-03: $49.02 per share

- 2026-04: $45.99 per share

- 2026-05: $45.64 per share

- 2026-06: $46.62 per share

- 2026-07: $45.82 per share

- 2026-08: $43.72 per share

- 2026-09: $40.40 per share

- 2026-10: $42.34 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $15.61 per share, central $17.76 per share, high $20.63 per share

- FY2017: low $19.34 per share, central $21.96 per share, high $25.45 per share

- FY2018: low $17.59 per share, central $19.96 per share, high $23.10 per share

- FY2019: low $21.59 per share, central $24.56 per share, high $28.52 per share

- FY2020: low $15.76 per share, central $17.93 per share, high $20.82 per share

- FY2021: low $11.49 per share, central $13.04 per share, high $15.09 per share

- FY2022: low $11.83 per share, central $13.45 per share, high $15.62 per share

- FY2023: low $17.25 per share, central $19.62 per share, high $22.79 per share

- FY2024: low $23.62 per share, central $26.98 per share, high $31.33 per share

- FY2025: low $25.35 per share, central $28.90 per share, high $33.46 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:47.346Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.