# Expand Energy (EXE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:24.964Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $90.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $176.62 per share, central $200.32 per share, high $231.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value $200.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:24.964Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 19.5% at the stated quote. About 19.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 4.97×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.56×

- FY2017: -0.01×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: -0.00×

- FY2020: -1.67×

- FY2021: 0.32×

- FY2022: 0.33×

- FY2023: 0.40×

- FY2024: -0.19×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -26.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 23.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -42.4%

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: 4.0%

- FY2019: -0.2%

- FY2020: 0.0%

- FY2021: 32.8%

- FY2022: 31.0%

- FY2023: 20.7%

- FY2024: -2.7%

- FY2025: 7.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $15B

- Net income, five-year total: $15B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 683.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.04×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.88×

- FY2024: 0.76×

- FY2025: 1.13×

### management: fail

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1.2% vs 7.2%

- Per-share earnings: -1149.21 to 7.57 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Common shareholder capital was cancelled in a financial restructuring within the assessment period

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 53.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 89.7%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 53.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 89.7%

- Per-share value change: $1K

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1K

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.57

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $77M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1K

- FY2017: -$111.48

- FY2018: $49.71

- FY2019: -$37.00

- FY2020: -$996.01

- FY2021: $53.66

- FY2022: $33.82

- FY2023: $16.92

- FY2024: -$4.55

- FY2025: $7.57

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -9.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.48×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.52×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -32.1%

- FY2017: -10.1%

- FY2018: -11.8%

- FY2019: -11.9%

- FY2020: -165.5%

- FY2021: 41.2%

- FY2022: 5.2%

- FY2023: 0.3%

- FY2024: -8.2%

- FY2025: -9.7%

## Holders

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 26% since Nov 2025 · "Gas producers Antero, EQT, Range, Expand Energy cut at Roth as gas oversupply returns" (seekingalpha.com, Aug 2025) · sales +176%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:43.708Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 9.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: Expand: 2%-Plus Gas OFS Deflation if Permian Cuts Rigs, Frac Crews ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expand-2-plus-gas-ofs-141200318.html))

- 2025-08-18: Gas producers Antero, EQT, Range, Expand Energy cut at Roth as gas oversupply returns ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4486703-gas-producers-antero-eqt-range-expand-energy-cut-at-roth-as-gas-oversupply-returns?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-28: Expand Energy Soars 21% After New Project Partnerships: What Does the Valuation Say? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expand-energy-soars-21-project-223001971.html))

- 2026-06-01: Expand Energy Weighs New 20 Year LNG Deal Against Earnings Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/expand-energy-weighs-20-lng-020342594.html))

- 2026-07-30: Expand Energy Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Production ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/expand-energy-q2-earnings-beat-163000503.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +176%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $7.9B 

- FY2017: $9.5B 

- FY2018: $10B 

- FY2019: $8.5B 

- FY2020: $5.2B 

- FY2021: $7.3B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $7.8B 

- FY2024: $4.2B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: 11.4% 

- FY2018: 12.5% 

- FY2019: 4.7% 

- FY2020: 11.9% 

- FY2021: 33.1% 

- FY2022: 71.3% 

- FY2023: 64.8% 

- FY2024: 27.0% 

- FY2025: 46.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 11.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 11648000000; grossProfit 5418000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27% to 64.8% during 2023–25; it earns 2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 64.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.42351604278074867],[2017,-0.011542615140285865],[2018,0.03978752213311113],[2019,-0.001784335154826958],[2020,0],[2021,0.32829709121717027],[2022,0.3096837620842209],[2023,0.2070477768761801],[2024,-0.027494040653577776],[2025,0.07159840325236154]]; median 0.019893761066555566. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back USD 100 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 260000000; upkeep 1737000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 226000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.1504424778761062.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 735000000; owner earnings 6588000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 70000000; upkeep 1753000000; cash acquisitions 1967000000; owner earnings 4936000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.41268233387358183.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1829000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2117000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2736000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2063000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,183000000],[2018,92000000],[2019,91000000],[2020,22000000],[2021,119000000],[2022,1212000000],[2023,487000000],[2024,388000000],[2025,765000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 100000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.36 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If commodity prices fall or drilling efforts are unsuccessful" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); If commodity prices fall or drilling efforts are unsuccessful

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 9.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.145417052350236. Price 90.8; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -4866.767371601209 → FY2025 8.582601822190789. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-02: $44.18 per share

- 2021-03: $43.39 per share

- 2021-04: $45.57 per share

- 2021-05: $52.80 per share

- 2021-06: $51.92 per share

- 2021-07: $54.05 per share

- 2021-08: $55.81 per share

- 2021-09: $61.59 per share

- 2021-10: $63.74 per share

- 2021-11: $59.54 per share

- 2021-12: $64.52 per share

- 2022-01: $68.17 per share

- 2022-02: $77.25 per share

- 2022-03: $87.00 per share

- 2022-04: $82.02 per share

- 2022-05: $97.38 per share

- 2022-06: $81.10 per share

- 2022-07: $94.17 per share

- 2022-08: $100.49 per share

- 2022-09: $94.21 per share

- 2022-10: $102.27 per share

- 2022-11: $103.50 per share

- 2022-12: $94.37 per share

- 2023-01: $86.72 per share

- 2023-02: $80.81 per share

- 2023-03: $76.04 per share

- 2023-04: $82.68 per share

- 2023-05: $75.25 per share

- 2023-06: $83.68 per share

- 2023-07: $84.34 per share

- 2023-08: $88.21 per share

- 2023-09: $86.23 per share

- 2023-10: $86.08 per share

- 2023-11: $80.31 per share

- 2023-12: $76.94 per share

- 2024-01: $77.11 per share

- 2024-02: $82.78 per share

- 2024-03: $88.83 per share

- 2024-04: $89.88 per share

- 2024-05: $90.93 per share

- 2024-06: $82.19 per share

- 2024-07: $76.33 per share

- 2024-08: $74.49 per share

- 2024-09: $82.25 per share

- 2024-10: $84.72 per share

- 2024-11: $98.96 per share

- 2024-12: $99.55 per share

- 2025-01: $101.60 per share

- 2025-02: $98.88 per share

- 2025-03: $111.32 per share

- 2025-04: $103.90 per share

- 2025-05: $116.13 per share

- 2025-06: $116.94 per share

- 2025-07: $104.78 per share

- 2025-08: $96.78 per share

- 2025-09: $106.24 per share

- 2025-10: $103.31 per share

- 2025-11: $121.93 per share

- 2025-12: $110.36 per share

- 2026-01: $112.41 per share

- 2026-02: $107.92 per share

- 2026-03: $109.78 per share

- 2026-04: $102.15 per share

- 2026-05: $92.98 per share

- 2026-06: $91.19 per share

- 2026-07: $94.03 per share

- 2026-08: $98.16 per share

- 2026-09: $84.09 per share

- 2026-10: $90.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $18.93 per share, central $21.54 per share, high $25.01 per share

- FY2023: low $168.30 per share, central $190.61 per share, high $220.32 per share

- FY2024: low $81.50 per share, central $92.53 per share, high $107.22 per share

- FY2025: low $147.24 per share, central $167.13 per share, high $193.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.