# Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXPD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:25.590Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $198.64 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $90.03 per share, central $101.77 per share, high $117.40 per share. Buy at or below the central value $101.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:25.590Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.06×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.10×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 50.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 43.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 45.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 50.5%

- FY2017: 51.2%

- FY2018: 56.2%

- FY2019: 42.3%

- FY2020: 43.9%

- FY2021: 63.2%

- FY2022: 85.2%

- FY2023: 49.8%

- FY2024: 47.2%

- FY2025: 48.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 72.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 51.2% vs 48.7%

- Per-share earnings: 2.40 to 5.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.4%

- Market cap gain: $10B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $594M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.4%

- Per-share value change: $3.31

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.40

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.72

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.21

- Average buyback yield: 4.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 51.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 48.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.36

- FY2017: $2.69

- FY2018: $3.48

- FY2019: $3.39

- FY2020: $4.07

- FY2021: $8.27

- FY2022: $8.26

- FY2023: $5.01

- FY2024: $5.72

- FY2025: $5.97

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.24×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.5%

- FY2017: 0.0%

- FY2018: 1.4%

- FY2019: -4.9%

- FY2020: 0.8%

- FY2021: 7.2%

- FY2022: -13.8%

- FY2023: -6.6%

- FY2024: 1.8%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.1% a year for ten years · sales +8.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:43.887Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: Expeditors posts upbeat results on higher freight volumes, customs fees ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/expeditors-posts-upbeat-results-on-higher-freight-volumes-customs-fees-4170399))

- 2025-11-04: Logistics firm Expeditors posts upbeat results as tariff turmoil boosts brokerage demand ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/logistics-firm-expeditors-posts-upbeat-153357128.html))

- 2025-12-02: Airfreight and AI Infrastructure Boost Expeditors’ (EXPD) Outlook, According to BofA ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airfreight-ai-infrastructure-boost-expeditors-130728596.html))

- 2026-08-04: EXPD Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Airfreight and Customs Strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/expd-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-171600555.html))

- 2026-10-02: Expeditors International of Washington Seen Benefiting From Stronger Ocean Rates, Airfreight Growth, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/expeditors-international-washington-seen-benefiting-152116414.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $6.9B 

- FY2018: $8.1B 

- FY2019: $7.9B 

- FY2020: $9.6B 

- FY2021: $17B 

- FY2022: $17B 

- FY2023: $9.3B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $11B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 14.0% 

- FY2017: 12.8% 

- FY2018: 12.5% 

- FY2019: 12.6% 

- FY2020: 12.1% 

- FY2021: 13.1% 

- FY2022: 12.7% 

- FY2023: 13.4% 

- FY2024: 12.7% 

- FY2025: 15.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are USD 11.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 11069009000; grossProfit 1694227000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPD.US: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India. The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage and other services, import, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other logistics solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance consulting, cargo insurance, cargo security, and solutions. In addition, it acts as a freight consolidator or as an agent for the airline that carries the shipment. Further, the company provides ancillary services that include preparation of shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance services, and the preparation of documentation to comply with local export and import laws. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12.7% to 15.3% during 2023–25; it earns 50.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 13.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5051815775923254],[2017,0.512279643166411],[2018,0.561945567256782],[2019,0.4230185872851679],[2020,0.4394335092739049],[2021,0.6324843587104895],[2022,0.8522714952863968],[2023,0.49822761790413866],[2024,0.471961077588692],[2025,0.48704981616921256]]; median 0.5017045977482321. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 13% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.13105030847851581],[2022,0.12718024022094648],[2023,0.1339205665309335]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 667.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 59316000; owner earnings 418287000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 45706000; upkeep 49310000; owner earnings 489345000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09340240525600547.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 47474000; owner earnings 624744000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 47022000; owner earnings 594323000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 47543000; owner earnings 705556000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 36247000; owner earnings 1430557000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 29486000; upkeep 57338000; owner earnings 1357399000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.021722426493610204.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 39314000; owner earnings 781329000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 40466000; owner earnings 830697000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 53101000; owner earnings 817432000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,145123000],[2017,150495000],[2018,156840000],[2019,170553000],[2020,174929000],[2021,195766000],[2022,213799000],[2023,202029000],[2024,204087000],[2025,207437000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 667306000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.634 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Increased tariffs on certain sectors for Canada, China, and Mexico took effect in the first quarter of 2025.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Currently, the United States Government has undertaken a substantial global trade rebalancing effort resulting in significantly higher tariffs on imports. Increased tariffs on certain sectors for Canada, China, and Mexico took effect in the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, reciprocal tariffs on certain countries were expected to take effect in April 2025, and were later postponed to July and August 2025, while trade negotiations by country were taking place.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17351352248355806. Price 198.64; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.412179389453431 → FY2025 5.999544950788629. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $51.47 per share

- 2016-11: $52.74 per share

- 2016-12: $52.96 per share

- 2017-01: $52.08 per share

- 2017-02: $56.38 per share

- 2017-03: $56.49 per share

- 2017-04: $56.09 per share

- 2017-05: $53.38 per share

- 2017-06: $56.48 per share

- 2017-07: $58.88 per share

- 2017-08: $56.10 per share

- 2017-09: $59.86 per share

- 2017-10: $58.38 per share

- 2017-11: $64.78 per share

- 2017-12: $64.69 per share

- 2018-01: $64.95 per share

- 2018-02: $64.96 per share

- 2018-03: $63.30 per share

- 2018-04: $63.86 per share

- 2018-05: $74.48 per share

- 2018-06: $73.10 per share

- 2018-07: $76.17 per share

- 2018-08: $73.28 per share

- 2018-09: $73.53 per share

- 2018-10: $67.18 per share

- 2018-11: $76.09 per share

- 2018-12: $68.09 per share

- 2019-01: $69.30 per share

- 2019-02: $74.95 per share

- 2019-03: $75.90 per share

- 2019-04: $79.42 per share

- 2019-05: $69.59 per share

- 2019-06: $75.86 per share

- 2019-07: $76.35 per share

- 2019-08: $71.10 per share

- 2019-09: $74.29 per share

- 2019-10: $72.94 per share

- 2019-11: $74.76 per share

- 2019-12: $78.02 per share

- 2020-01: $73.04 per share

- 2020-02: $70.42 per share

- 2020-03: $66.72 per share

- 2020-04: $71.61 per share

- 2020-05: $76.37 per share

- 2020-06: $76.04 per share

- 2020-07: $84.51 per share

- 2020-08: $88.39 per share

- 2020-09: $90.52 per share

- 2020-10: $88.37 per share

- 2020-11: $89.37 per share

- 2020-12: $95.11 per share

- 2021-01: $89.52 per share

- 2021-02: $91.84 per share

- 2021-03: $107.69 per share

- 2021-04: $109.86 per share

- 2021-05: $125.69 per share

- 2021-06: $126.60 per share

- 2021-07: $128.25 per share

- 2021-08: $124.64 per share

- 2021-09: $119.13 per share

- 2021-10: $123.26 per share

- 2021-11: $121.62 per share

- 2021-12: $134.29 per share

- 2022-01: $114.48 per share

- 2022-02: $103.36 per share

- 2022-03: $103.16 per share

- 2022-04: $99.07 per share

- 2022-05: $108.84 per share

- 2022-06: $97.46 per share

- 2022-07: $106.25 per share

- 2022-08: $102.89 per share

- 2022-09: $88.31 per share

- 2022-10: $97.85 per share

- 2022-11: $116.06 per share

- 2022-12: $103.92 per share

- 2023-01: $108.15 per share

- 2023-02: $104.56 per share

- 2023-03: $110.12 per share

- 2023-04: $113.84 per share

- 2023-05: $110.31 per share

- 2023-06: $121.13 per share

- 2023-07: $127.30 per share

- 2023-08: $116.71 per share

- 2023-09: $114.63 per share

- 2023-10: $109.25 per share

- 2023-11: $120.34 per share

- 2023-12: $127.20 per share

- 2024-01: $126.33 per share

- 2024-02: $119.60 per share

- 2024-03: $121.57 per share

- 2024-04: $111.31 per share

- 2024-05: $120.90 per share

- 2024-06: $124.79 per share

- 2024-07: $124.82 per share

- 2024-08: $123.41 per share

- 2024-09: $131.40 per share

- 2024-10: $119.00 per share

- 2024-11: $121.64 per share

- 2024-12: $110.77 per share

- 2025-01: $113.58 per share

- 2025-02: $117.36 per share

- 2025-03: $120.25 per share

- 2025-04: $109.91 per share

- 2025-05: $112.73 per share

- 2025-06: $114.25 per share

- 2025-07: $116.24 per share

- 2025-08: $120.54 per share

- 2025-09: $122.59 per share

- 2025-10: $121.90 per share

- 2025-11: $146.90 per share

- 2025-12: $149.01 per share

- 2026-01: $160.54 per share

- 2026-02: $145.03 per share

- 2026-03: $143.23 per share

- 2026-04: $147.89 per share

- 2026-05: $157.99 per share

- 2026-06: $162.98 per share

- 2026-07: $167.89 per share

- 2026-08: $189.65 per share

- 2026-09: $184.64 per share

- 2026-10: $198.64 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $31.36 per share, central $42.02 per share, high $48.51 per share

- FY2017: low $40.19 per share, central $52.56 per share, high $60.73 per share

- FY2018: low $48.67 per share, central $66.67 per share, high $77.50 per share

- FY2019: low $52.30 per share, central $72.54 per share, high $84.14 per share

- FY2020: low $65.51 per share, central $88.81 per share, high $102.87 per share

- FY2021: low $113.00 per share, central $161.10 per share, high $187.93 per share

- FY2022: low $126.02 per share, central $179.12 per share, high $208.73 per share

- FY2023: low $64.98 per share, central $72.83 per share, high $83.28 per share

- FY2024: low $74.42 per share, central $83.90 per share, high $96.53 per share

- FY2025: low $81.68 per share, central $91.98 per share, high $105.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:07.302Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/746515/000119312526071569/expd-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.