# Expedia Group (EXPE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXPE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:25.865Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $291.87 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $174.91 per share, central $224.50 per share, high $253.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value $224.50 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:25.865Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.0% at the stated quote. About 8.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 6.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: -0.52×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.15×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 84.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 90.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 10

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.4%

- FY2018: 7.4%

- FY2019: 7.1%

- FY2020: -21.0%

- FY2021: 1.4%

- FY2022: 8.0%

- FY2023: 8.6%

- FY2024: 12.9%

- FY2025: 22.2%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 32.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.12×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 167.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 10.40×

- FY2022: 1.37×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.09×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.4% vs 12.9%

- Per-share earnings: 2.42 to 8.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Market cap gain: $16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 17.8%

- Per-share value change: $6.53

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.75

- Average buyback yield: 5.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $179M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.82

- FY2017: $2.42

- FY2018: $2.66

- FY2019: $3.77

- FY2020: -$18.47

- FY2021: $0.08

- FY2022: $2.18

- FY2023: $5.31

- FY2024: $8.95

- FY2025: $9.81

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.20×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.00×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 5.99×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.1%

- FY2017: -7.7%

- FY2018: -8.7%

- FY2019: -10.3%

- FY2020: 6.5%

- FY2021: -17.3%

- FY2022: -14.3%

- FY2023: -8.7%

- FY2024: -8.3%

- FY2025: -10.6%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.8% a year for ten years · "(NASDAQ:EXPE) also raised its full year revenue and bookings forecasts." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:43.963Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-09: Expedia Cuts 2025 Outlook on Weak US Travel ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/expedia-cuts-2025-outlook-weak-194117952.html))

- 2025-08-12: EXPE Q2 Deep Dive: B2B and International Growth Offset U.S. Travel Softness ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expe-q2-deep-dive-b2b-072408961.html))

- 2025-11-08: Expedia Group (EXPE) Is Up 17.4% After Raising Revenue Outlook on Strong Q3 Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expedia-group-expe-17-4-002347734.html))

- 2026-03-08: Expedia (EXPE) Is Up 15.7% After New PredictHQ Demand-Intelligence Partnership Announcement ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expedia-expe-15-7-predicthq-230859179.html))

- 2026-05-07: Expedia tumbles as revenue, bookings guidance fall short of forecasts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/expedia-falls-full-revenue-guidance-224017265.html))

- 2026-08-20: Expedia Raises Full-Year Guidance, B2C Sees Strong Top-Line, Margin Improvement, Wedbush Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/expedia-raises-full-guidance-b2c-150748880.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $10B 

- FY2018: $11B 

- FY2019: $12B 

- FY2020: $5.2B 

- FY2021: $8.6B 

- FY2022: $12B 

- FY2023: $13B 

- FY2024: $14B 

- FY2025: $15B 

- FY2026: $16B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 90.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: 82.5% 

- FY2018: 82.5% 

- FY2019: 82.1% 

- FY2020: 67.7% 

- FY2021: 82.0% 

- FY2022: 85.8% 

- FY2023: 87.7% 

- FY2024: 89.5% 

- FY2025: 90.1% 

- FY2026: 90.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are USD 14.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 14733000000; grossProfit 13277000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 87.7% to 90.1% during 2023–25; it earns 7.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 87.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 89.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 90.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06350106835070687],[2018,0.0742142684590926],[2019,0.07062331864623461],[2020,-0.20978708858286943],[2021,0.013521671114382995],[2022,0.07982456140350877],[2023,0.0861791784419154],[2024,0.12944959530764702],[2025,0.22239890974813295],[2026,0.3270258908839749]]; median 0.07701941493130068. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.9 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 749348000; owner earnings 326702000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 710330000; owner earnings 557178000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 878000000; owner earnings 487000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 147718782.2585473; upkeep 1012281217.7414527; owner earnings 462718782.2585473. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.31924094703380423.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 673000000; owner earnings 124800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 662000000; owner earnings 482000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 39000000; upkeep 807000000; owner earnings 797000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04893350062735257.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 756000000; owner earnings 1316000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 770000000; owner earnings 1410370484.2428901. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,150159000],[2017,175775000],[2018,186000000],[2019,195000000],[2020,123000000],[2021,67000000],[2022,67000000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,200000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 1930000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.615 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14266732951030447. Price 291.87; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.311810595219985 → FY2025 10.689240689107343. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $129.23 per share

- 2016-11: $124.05 per share

- 2016-12: $113.28 per share

- 2017-01: $121.59 per share

- 2017-02: $119.04 per share

- 2017-03: $126.17 per share

- 2017-04: $133.72 per share

- 2017-05: $143.78 per share

- 2017-06: $148.95 per share

- 2017-07: $156.47 per share

- 2017-08: $148.36 per share

- 2017-09: $143.94 per share

- 2017-10: $124.66 per share

- 2017-11: $122.50 per share

- 2017-12: $119.77 per share

- 2018-01: $128.01 per share

- 2018-02: $105.17 per share

- 2018-03: $110.41 per share

- 2018-04: $115.14 per share

- 2018-05: $121.03 per share

- 2018-06: $120.19 per share

- 2018-07: $133.84 per share

- 2018-08: $130.50 per share

- 2018-09: $130.48 per share

- 2018-10: $125.43 per share

- 2018-11: $120.79 per share

- 2018-12: $112.65 per share

- 2019-01: $119.25 per share

- 2019-02: $123.31 per share

- 2019-03: $119.00 per share

- 2019-04: $129.84 per share

- 2019-05: $115.00 per share

- 2019-06: $133.03 per share

- 2019-07: $132.74 per share

- 2019-08: $130.10 per share

- 2019-09: $134.41 per share

- 2019-10: $136.66 per share

- 2019-11: $101.66 per share

- 2019-12: $108.14 per share

- 2020-01: $108.45 per share

- 2020-02: $98.62 per share

- 2020-03: $56.27 per share

- 2020-04: $70.98 per share

- 2020-05: $79.48 per share

- 2020-06: $82.20 per share

- 2020-07: $81.01 per share

- 2020-08: $98.15 per share

- 2020-09: $91.69 per share

- 2020-10: $94.15 per share

- 2020-11: $124.49 per share

- 2020-12: $132.40 per share

- 2021-01: $124.10 per share

- 2021-02: $161.00 per share

- 2021-03: $172.12 per share

- 2021-04: $176.23 per share

- 2021-05: $176.95 per share

- 2021-06: $163.71 per share

- 2021-07: $160.87 per share

- 2021-08: $144.50 per share

- 2021-09: $163.90 per share

- 2021-10: $164.41 per share

- 2021-11: $161.09 per share

- 2021-12: $180.72 per share

- 2022-01: $183.29 per share

- 2022-02: $196.11 per share

- 2022-03: $195.67 per share

- 2022-04: $174.75 per share

- 2022-05: $129.33 per share

- 2022-06: $94.83 per share

- 2022-07: $106.05 per share

- 2022-08: $102.65 per share

- 2022-09: $93.69 per share

- 2022-10: $93.47 per share

- 2022-11: $106.84 per share

- 2022-12: $87.60 per share

- 2023-01: $114.30 per share

- 2023-02: $108.97 per share

- 2023-03: $97.03 per share

- 2023-04: $93.96 per share

- 2023-05: $95.71 per share

- 2023-06: $109.39 per share

- 2023-07: $122.53 per share

- 2023-08: $108.39 per share

- 2023-09: $103.07 per share

- 2023-10: $95.29 per share

- 2023-11: $136.18 per share

- 2023-12: $151.79 per share

- 2024-01: $148.33 per share

- 2024-02: $136.82 per share

- 2024-03: $137.75 per share

- 2024-04: $134.63 per share

- 2024-05: $112.86 per share

- 2024-06: $125.99 per share

- 2024-07: $127.67 per share

- 2024-08: $139.09 per share

- 2024-09: $148.02 per share

- 2024-10: $156.31 per share

- 2024-11: $184.62 per share

- 2024-12: $186.33 per share

- 2025-01: $170.95 per share

- 2025-02: $197.96 per share

- 2025-03: $168.10 per share

- 2025-04: $156.93 per share

- 2025-05: $166.75 per share

- 2025-06: $168.68 per share

- 2025-07: $180.22 per share

- 2025-08: $214.80 per share

- 2025-09: $213.75 per share

- 2025-10: $220.00 per share

- 2025-11: $255.69 per share

- 2025-12: $283.31 per share

- 2026-01: $264.84 per share

- 2026-02: $215.69 per share

- 2026-03: $230.89 per share

- 2026-04: $248.37 per share

- 2026-05: $225.79 per share

- 2026-06: $255.88 per share

- 2026-07: $294.74 per share

- 2026-08: $317.12 per share

- 2026-09: $263.36 per share

- 2026-10: $291.87 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $51.10 per share, central $57.05 per share, high $64.97 per share

- FY2017: low $56.32 per share, central $65.49 per share, high $73.91 per share

- FY2018: low $62.72 per share, central $80.56 per share, high $92.54 per share

- FY2019: low $63.22 per share, central $69.89 per share, high $77.37 per share

- FY2020: low $27.08 per share, central $29.20 per share, high $32.03 per share

- FY2021: low $46.18 per share, central $49.50 per share, high $53.92 per share

- FY2022: low $45.04 per share, central $49.21 per share, high $54.75 per share

- FY2023: low $57.00 per share, central $72.08 per share, high $81.95 per share

- FY2024: low $69.33 per share, central $87.05 per share, high $99.04 per share

- FY2025: low $147.01 per share, central $187.39 per share, high $210.91 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:07.583Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.