# Experian (EXPN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXPN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:13.908Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 2,855.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,637.37 per share, central GBX 1,860.87 per share, high GBX 2,158.41 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,860.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:13.908Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.03×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.23×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- FY2026: 0.24×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 50.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 46.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 59.3%

- FY2018: 67.4%

- FY2019: 66.2%

- FY2020: 46.1%

- FY2021: 50.4%

- FY2022: 52.0%

- FY2023: 48.3%

- FY2024: 51.4%

- FY2025: 47.6%

- FY2026: 45.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.28×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.58×

- FY2026: 1.52×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 66.2% vs 47.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.90 to 1.30 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: $12B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 4.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.30

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.58

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $5.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 66.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 47.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.90

- FY2018: $0.92

- FY2019: $0.76

- FY2020: $0.73

- FY2021: $0.92

- FY2022: $1.21

- FY2023: $0.86

- FY2024: $1.30

- FY2025: $1.29

- FY2026: $1.64

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.28×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.47×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.86×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.8%

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: -6.3%

- FY2022: -6.2%

- FY2023: -8.5%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -6.4%

- FY2026: -4.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 29% since Jan 2025 · sales +10.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.707Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: $4.2B 

- FY2018: $4.9B 

- FY2019: $4.9B 

- FY2020: $5.2B 

- FY2021: $5.7B 

- FY2022: $6.0B 

- FY2023: $6.8B 

- FY2024: $7.1B 

- FY2025: $7.6B 

- FY2026: $8.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 55.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: 41.0% 

- FY2018: 40.5% 

- FY2019: 40.8% 

- FY2020: 49.3% 

- FY2021: 36.4% 

- FY2022: 36.8% 

- FY2023: 38.3% 

- FY2024: 38.3% 

- FY2025: 38.6% 

- FY2026: 55.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in consulting services; annual sales are USD 8.4 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: revenue 8445000000; grossProfit 4685000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPN.LSE: Experian plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology company in North America, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments: Business-to-Business and Consumer Services. The company provides data, software, and AI-enabled analytics integrate directly into client workflows to support decisioning, risk management, fraud prevention and customer engagement at scale; credit information, affordability insights, identity protection and personalized offers. It serves its customers in financial service, health, automotive, and marketing services. The company was formerly known as Experian Group Limited and changed its name to Experian plc in July 2008. Experian plc was founded in 1826 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.3% to 55.5% during 2024–26; it earns 50.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.6%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 55.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.5934465959735479],[2018,0.67443698781713],[2019,0.6622367153067908],[2020,0.4612073709262494],[2021,0.5036188347305844],[2022,0.5195599634055295],[2023,0.4825355490436792],[2024,0.5136571576021549],[2025,0.4755758946674495],[2026,0.4529340929450895]]; median 0.5086379961663696. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 37% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3639240505950489],[2022,0.3684796436839388],[2023,0.3828372864174599]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 722.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 399000000; owner earnings 856448624. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 431000000; owner earnings 845110977. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 439000000; owner earnings 689351764. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 487000000; owner earnings 684800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 422000000; owner earnings 978156680. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 508000000; owner earnings 1232902800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 627000000; owner earnings 808533848. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 640000000; owner earnings 1241596391. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 48000000; owner earnings 1865289521. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 48215691; owner earnings 2289162879. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Dividend observations: [[2017,383000000],[2018,392000000],[2019,411000000],[2020,426000000],[2021,428000000],[2022,446000000],[2023,483000000],[2024,510000000],[2025,546000000],[2026,582524330]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: cash repurchases 722251450 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22399999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07736311639121163. Price 2855; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.8874252976694915 → FY2026 2.493804474148637. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 1,573.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 1,510.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,574.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,529.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,597.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,628.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,659.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,618.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,575.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,507.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,554.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,499.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,586.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,538.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,636.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,623.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,556.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,537.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,667.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,841.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,874.50 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,874.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,920.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,970.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,802.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,906.50 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,905.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,912.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,963.50 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,079.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 2,225.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 2,387.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,384.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,500.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,518.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,599.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 2,428.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 2,563.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,552.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 2,637.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 2,591.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 2,251.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 2,376.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 2,813.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 2,819.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 2,677.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 2,790.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,920.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,817.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,646.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,777.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,556.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,273.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,497.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,792.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,703.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,786.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 3,168.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,204.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 3,109.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 3,347.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 3,380.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 3,632.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 3,081.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,933.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,951.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 2,792.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,656.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,406.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,863.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,623.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,661.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,774.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 2,905.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 2,813.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 2,953.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,805.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 2,660.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 2,810.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 2,832.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 3,018.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 3,009.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 2,762.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,691.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,491.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 2,903.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 3,202.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 3,296.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 3,385.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 3,454.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 3,244.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 3,607.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 3,686.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 3,672.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 3,684.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 3,931.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 3,777.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 3,751.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 3,445.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 4,007.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 3,764.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 3,568.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 3,715.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 3,693.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 3,752.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 4,004.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 3,832.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 3,722.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 3,547.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 3,323.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 3,363.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 2,758.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 2,786.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 2,598.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 2,689.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 2,573.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 2,543.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 2,790.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 3,044.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 2,465.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 2,728.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 698.36 per share, central GBX 794.43 per share, high GBX 922.31 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 827.51 per share, central GBX 940.89 per share, high GBX 1,091.82 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 827.56 per share, central GBX 940.97 per share, high GBX 1,091.94 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 820.38 per share, central GBX 931.35 per share, high GBX 1,079.07 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 880.81 per share, central GBX 1,001.28 per share, high GBX 1,161.65 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 932.59 per share, central GBX 1,060.44 per share, high GBX 1,230.64 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 867.59 per share, central GBX 986.39 per share, high GBX 1,144.54 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,106.99 per share, central GBX 1,257.60 per share, high GBX 1,458.10 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,216.65 per share, central GBX 1,381.56 per share, high GBX 1,601.10 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 1,562.72 per share, central GBX 1,776.03 per share, high GBX 2,060.00 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Experian

EXPN · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

A wonderful business at too high a price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price: GBX 2,855.00
Buy up to: GBX 1,860.87
Expected / yr: 7.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 3% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 24.3%
Worst year: 22.9%
Latest · 2026: 24.2%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 50.9% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 46.1% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 50.9%
Worst year: 45.3%
Latest · 2026: 45.3%

Each $1 of profit left $1.28 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.28×
Annual median: 1.10×
Latest · 2026: 1.52×

Per-share value rose from 0.9 to 1.3, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: $0.92
Worst year: $0.73
Latest · 2026: $1.64

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -4.9% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -6.4%
Worst year: -4.3%
Latest · 2026: -4.9%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 24.1%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.96 USD.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 1573.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 1510.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 1574.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 1529.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-02 · Price GBX 1597.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-03 · Price GBX 1628.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-04 · Price GBX 1659.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-05 · Price GBX 1618.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-06 · Price GBX 1575.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-07 · Price GBX 1507.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-08 · Price GBX 1554.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-09 · Price GBX 1499.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-10 · Price GBX 1586.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-11 · Price GBX 1538.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2017-12 · Price GBX 1636.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2018-01 · Price GBX 1623.00 · Value 794.43 · Buy at or below 794.43; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1556.00 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-03 · Price GBX 1537.50 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-04 · Price GBX 1667.00 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-05 · Price GBX 1841.50 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-06 · Price GBX 1874.50 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-07 · Price GBX 1874.00 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-08 · Price GBX 1920.00 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-09 · Price GBX 1970.50 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-10 · Price GBX 1802.50 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-11 · Price GBX 1906.50 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2018-12 · Price GBX 1905.00 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2019-01 · Price GBX 1912.00 · Value 940.89 · Buy at or below 940.89; 2019-02 · Price GBX 1963.50 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-03 · Price GBX 2079.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-04 · Price GBX 2225.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-05 · Price GBX 2387.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-06 · Price GBX 2384.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-07 · Price GBX 2500.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-08 · Price GBX 2518.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-09 · Price GBX 2599.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-10 · Price GBX 2428.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-11 · Price GBX 2563.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2019-12 · Price GBX 2552.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2020-01 · Price GBX 2637.00 · Value 940.97 · Buy at or below 940.97; 2020-02 · Price GBX 2591.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-03 · Price GBX 2251.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-04 · Price GBX 2376.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-05 · Price GBX 2813.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-06 · Price GBX 2819.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-07 · Price GBX 2677.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-08 · Price GBX 2790.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-09 · Price GBX 2920.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-10 · Price GBX 2817.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-11 · Price GBX 2646.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2020-12 · Price GBX 2777.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2021-01 · Price GBX 2556.00 · Value 931.35 · Buy at or below 931.35; 2021-02 · Price GBX 2273.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-03 · Price GBX 2497.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-04 · Price GBX 2792.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-05 · Price GBX 2703.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-06 · Price GBX 2786.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-07 · Price GBX 3168.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-08 · Price GBX 3204.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-09 · Price GBX 3109.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-10 · Price GBX 3347.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-11 · Price GBX 3380.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2021-12 · Price GBX 3632.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2022-01 · Price GBX 3081.00 · Value 1001.28 · Buy at or below 1001.28; 2022-02 · Price GBX 2933.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-03 · Price GBX 2951.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-04 · Price GBX 2792.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-05 · Price GBX 2656.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-06 · Price GBX 2406.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-07 · Price GBX 2863.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-08 · Price GBX 2623.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-09 · Price GBX 2661.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-10 · Price GBX 2774.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-11 · Price GBX 2905.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2022-12 · Price GBX 2813.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2023-01 · Price GBX 2953.00 · Value 1060.44 · Buy at or below 1060.44; 2023-02 · Price GBX 2805.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-03 · Price GBX 2660.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-04 · Price GBX 2810.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-05 · Price GBX 2832.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-06 · Price GBX 3018.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-07 · Price GBX 3009.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-08 · Price GBX 2762.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-09 · Price GBX 2691.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-10 · Price GBX 2491.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-11 · Price GBX 2903.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2023-12 · Price GBX 3202.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2024-01 · Price GBX 3296.00 · Value 986.39 · Buy at or below 986.39; 2024-02 · Price GBX 3385.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-03 · Price GBX 3454.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-04 · Price GBX 3244.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-05 · Price GBX 3607.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-06 · Price GBX 3686.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-07 · Price GBX 3672.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-08 · Price GBX 3684.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-09 · Price GBX 3931.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-10 · Price GBX 3777.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-11 · Price GBX 3751.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2024-12 · Price GBX 3445.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2025-01 · Price GBX 4007.00 · Value 1257.60 · Buy at or below 1257.60; 2025-02 · Price GBX 3764.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-03 · Price GBX 3568.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-04 · Price GBX 3715.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-05 · Price GBX 3693.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-06 · Price GBX 3752.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-07 · Price GBX 4004.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-08 · Price GBX 3832.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-09 · Price GBX 3722.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-10 · Price GBX 3547.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-11 · Price GBX 3323.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2025-12 · Price GBX 3363.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2026-01 · Price GBX 2758.00 · Value 1381.56 · Buy at or below 1381.56; 2026-02 · Price GBX 2786.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-03 · Price GBX 2598.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-04 · Price GBX 2689.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-05 · Price GBX 2573.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-06 · Price GBX 2543.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-07 · Price GBX 2790.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-08 · Price GBX 3044.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-09 · Price GBX 2465.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2728.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2855.00 · Value 1776.03 · Buy at or below 1776.03

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 1,637.37 – GBX 2,158.41
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 1,860.87
Discount to value	1 − 2855.00 / 1860.87 = -53.4%
Return / year	About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 148.31/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 16.35/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

Revenue$8.4B

Revenue

Owner earnings$2.3B

Owner earnings

Operating margin24.2%

Operating margin

Net cash / debt-$5.2B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares918M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·