# Exponent (EXPO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXPO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:26.117Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $72.28 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $30.12 per share, central $34.12 per share, high $39.44 per share. Buy at or below the central value $34.12 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:26.117Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.20×

- FY2017: 0.21×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.21×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 68.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 49.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 37.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 68.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 93.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 25.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 47.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 43.4%

- FY2017: 48.8%

- FY2018: 66.5%

- FY2019: 50.2%

- FY2020: 54.2%

- FY2021: 69.7%

- FY2022: 64.4%

- FY2023: 43.6%

- FY2024: 37.6%

- FY2025: 35.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $519M

- Net income, five-year total: $519M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 33.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 29.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 48.8% vs 37.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.87 to 2.07 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Market cap gain: $1.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $377M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.1%

- Per-share value change: $1.19

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.87

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.07

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.38

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $845M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 48.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 37.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.87

- FY2017: $0.77

- FY2018: $1.33

- FY2019: $1.53

- FY2020: $1.55

- FY2021: $1.90

- FY2022: $1.96

- FY2023: $1.94

- FY2024: $2.11

- FY2025: $2.07

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -3.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 18.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.24×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.8%

- FY2017: -6.0%

- FY2018: -4.0%

- FY2019: -4.5%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: 1.5%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -3.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 38% since Dec 2021 · "EXPO Q2 Deep Dive: Litigation Demand Offsets Flat Revenue, Margin Compression Persists" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +4.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:44.027Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: Exponent (NASDAQ:EXPO) Surprises With Q1 Sales But Quarterly Revenue Guidance Significantly Misses Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exponent-nasdaq-expo-surprises-q1-214944512.html))

- 2025-08-13: EXPO Q2 Deep Dive: Litigation Demand Offsets Flat Revenue, Margin Compression Persists ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expo-q2-deep-dive-litigation-035306573.html))

- 2025-09-12: Exponent (EXPO) Tumbled as Guidance Fell Short of Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exponent-expo-tumbled-guidance-fell-130047982.html))

- 2025-11-01: Exponent (EXPO) Profit Margins Decline, Challenging Premium Valuation Narrative ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exponent-expo-profit-margins-decline-191450541.html))

- 2026-07-31: Exponent Inc (EXPO) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Double-Digit Growth Fueled by AI-Driven ... ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/exponent-inc-expo-q2-2026-050520810.html))

- 2026-08-11: Exponent (EXPO) Could Be 17% Undervalued On Strong Results And Higher Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/exponent-expo-could-17-undervalued-111121323.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851520/000119312526082508/expo-20260102.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $315M 

- FY2017: $348M 

- FY2018: $380M 

- FY2019: $417M 

- FY2020: $400M 

- FY2021: $466M 

- FY2022: $513M 

- FY2023: $537M 

- FY2024: $559M 

- FY2025: $582M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 25%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851520/000119312526082508/expo-20260102.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 95.0% 

- FY2017: 94.8% 

- FY2018: 93.4% 

- FY2019: 93.8% 

- FY2021: 93.0% 

- FY2022: 93.2% 

- FY2023: 25.3% 

- FY2024: 25.5% 

- FY2025: 25.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are USD 582 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851520/000119312526082508/expo-20260102.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 582014000; grossProfit 145308000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25% to 25.5% during 2023–25; it earns 49.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 25.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851520/000119312526082508/expo-20260102.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.43440303436777294],[2017,0.4876421282798834],[2018,0.6650362010196261],[2019,0.5021442521486615],[2020,0.5424535514442009],[2021,0.6966841308927246],[2022,0.6438220524257663],[2023,0.4358406536528119],[2024,0.376239299194405],[2025,0.3553036810626259]]; median 0.49489319021427247. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 97.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 14393000; owner earnings 39218000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4725000; owner earnings 42865000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 3581225.3955714554; upkeep 12716774.604428545; owner earnings 65829225.395571455. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05440175505714481.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 5099614.147137713; upkeep 17938385.852862287; owner earnings 71327614.14713772. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07149565015055748.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4987000; owner earnings 84436000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 339000; upkeep 6487000; owner earnings 101202000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.003349736171221913.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 4964000; upkeep 7079000; owner earnings 102330000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04850972344376038.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 4267484.508824034; upkeep 12088515.491175966; owner earnings 97166484.50882404. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04391930541066851.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 6939000; owner earnings 111752000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851520/000119312526082508/expo-20260102.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 9390000; owner earnings 106702000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,18781000],[2017,21835000],[2018,27220000],[2019,33503000],[2020,39775000],[2021,43198000],[2022,49237000],[2023,54043000],[2024,58214000],[2025,61539000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851520/000119312526082508/expo-20260102.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 97095000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.244 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1391926659721986. Price 72.28; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $28.63 per share

- 2016-11: $30.33 per share

- 2016-12: $30.15 per share

- 2017-01: $29.03 per share

- 2017-02: $28.73 per share

- 2017-03: $29.78 per share

- 2017-04: $30.58 per share

- 2017-05: $29.65 per share

- 2017-06: $29.15 per share

- 2017-07: $32.60 per share

- 2017-08: $34.05 per share

- 2017-09: $36.95 per share

- 2017-10: $36.93 per share

- 2017-11: $37.75 per share

- 2017-12: $35.55 per share

- 2018-01: $37.08 per share

- 2018-02: $38.88 per share

- 2018-03: $39.33 per share

- 2018-04: $43.20 per share

- 2018-05: $49.15 per share

- 2018-06: $48.30 per share

- 2018-07: $48.90 per share

- 2018-08: $52.35 per share

- 2018-09: $53.60 per share

- 2018-10: $50.46 per share

- 2018-11: $50.32 per share

- 2018-12: $50.71 per share

- 2019-01: $49.96 per share

- 2019-02: $56.63 per share

- 2019-03: $57.72 per share

- 2019-04: $56.62 per share

- 2019-05: $56.05 per share

- 2019-06: $58.54 per share

- 2019-07: $68.80 per share

- 2019-08: $70.89 per share

- 2019-09: $69.90 per share

- 2019-10: $63.53 per share

- 2019-11: $63.55 per share

- 2019-12: $69.01 per share

- 2020-01: $72.77 per share

- 2020-02: $73.65 per share

- 2020-03: $71.91 per share

- 2020-04: $70.33 per share

- 2020-05: $74.24 per share

- 2020-06: $80.93 per share

- 2020-07: $84.06 per share

- 2020-08: $80.46 per share

- 2020-09: $72.03 per share

- 2020-10: $69.59 per share

- 2020-11: $83.01 per share

- 2020-12: $90.03 per share

- 2021-01: $82.58 per share

- 2021-02: $96.47 per share

- 2021-03: $97.45 per share

- 2021-04: $96.33 per share

- 2021-05: $91.23 per share

- 2021-06: $89.21 per share

- 2021-07: $107.09 per share

- 2021-08: $116.90 per share

- 2021-09: $113.15 per share

- 2021-10: $114.80 per share

- 2021-11: $116.50 per share

- 2021-12: $116.73 per share

- 2022-01: $94.98 per share

- 2022-02: $94.76 per share

- 2022-03: $108.05 per share

- 2022-04: $95.81 per share

- 2022-05: $90.39 per share

- 2022-06: $91.47 per share

- 2022-07: $100.49 per share

- 2022-08: $93.86 per share

- 2022-09: $87.67 per share

- 2022-10: $95.26 per share

- 2022-11: $103.41 per share

- 2022-12: $99.09 per share

- 2023-01: $102.54 per share

- 2023-02: $102.90 per share

- 2023-03: $99.69 per share

- 2023-04: $92.05 per share

- 2023-05: $91.32 per share

- 2023-06: $93.32 per share

- 2023-07: $89.58 per share

- 2023-08: $89.86 per share

- 2023-09: $85.60 per share

- 2023-10: $73.29 per share

- 2023-11: $76.96 per share

- 2023-12: $88.04 per share

- 2024-01: $88.19 per share

- 2024-02: $80.89 per share

- 2024-03: $82.69 per share

- 2024-04: $91.91 per share

- 2024-05: $95.12 per share

- 2024-06: $95.12 per share

- 2024-07: $106.08 per share

- 2024-08: $108.27 per share

- 2024-09: $115.28 per share

- 2024-10: $94.38 per share

- 2024-11: $98.71 per share

- 2024-12: $89.10 per share

- 2025-01: $91.67 per share

- 2025-02: $84.66 per share

- 2025-03: $81.06 per share

- 2025-04: $78.68 per share

- 2025-05: $76.34 per share

- 2025-06: $74.71 per share

- 2025-07: $68.96 per share

- 2025-08: $71.38 per share

- 2025-09: $69.48 per share

- 2025-10: $70.81 per share

- 2025-11: $72.30 per share

- 2025-12: $69.46 per share

- 2026-01: $71.87 per share

- 2026-02: $72.78 per share

- 2026-03: $65.25 per share

- 2026-04: $66.89 per share

- 2026-05: $58.32 per share

- 2026-06: $58.76 per share

- 2026-07: $66.85 per share

- 2026-08: $71.01 per share

- 2026-09: $65.42 per share

- 2026-10: $72.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $18.41 per share, central $20.35 per share, high $22.92 per share

- FY2021: low $21.98 per share, central $24.27 per share, high $27.31 per share

- FY2022: low $24.29 per share, central $27.24 per share, high $31.16 per share

- FY2023: low $26.07 per share, central $29.19 per share, high $33.35 per share

- FY2024: low $28.49 per share, central $31.76 per share, high $36.10 per share

- FY2025: low $28.85 per share, central $32.27 per share, high $36.81 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851520/000119312526082508/expo-20260102.htm); period 2026-01-02, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.