# Volution Group (FAN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FAN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:45.558Z. Financial observations: FY2011–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 637.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 398.09 per share, central GBX 456.12 per share, high GBX 528.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 456.12 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:45.558Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.28×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- FY2026: 0.20×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 21.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 47.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 14.8%

- FY2018: 13.9%

- FY2019: 15.7%

- FY2020: 7.4%

- FY2021: 19.7%

- FY2022: 23.6%

- FY2023: 27.9%

- FY2024: 37.4%

- FY2025: 25.8%

- FY2026: 29.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.32×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 290M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 220M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 43.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.32×

- FY2023: 1.17×

- FY2024: 1.18×

- FY2025: 1.43×

- FY2026: 1.43×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.8% vs 29.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.07 to 0.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP 868M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 158M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 15.2%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 455M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 296M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 29.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.07

- FY2018: GBP 0.07

- FY2019: GBP 0.09

- FY2020: GBP 0.05

- FY2021: GBP 0.10

- FY2022: GBP 0.18

- FY2023: GBP 0.19

- FY2024: GBP 0.22

- FY2025: GBP 0.21

- FY2026: GBP 0.31

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.53×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.44×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.9%

- FY2018: -3.8%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: -9.0%

- FY2021: -7.7%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: -6.2%

- FY2024: -7.6%

- FY2025: -7.2%

- FY2026: -4.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years · sales +15.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.103Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +15.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800EPT84EQCDHO768/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31/reports/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-10-28.

- FY2017: GBP 185M 

- FY2018: GBP 206M 

- FY2019: GBP 236M 

- FY2020: GBP 217M 

- FY2021: GBP 273M 

- FY2022: GBP 308M 

- FY2023: GBP 328M 

- FY2024: GBP 348M 

- FY2025: GBP 419M 

- FY2026: GBP 485M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 47.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800EPT84EQCDHO768/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31/reports/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-10-28.

- FY2017: 49.2% 

- FY2018: 47.0% 

- FY2019: 47.1% 

- FY2020: 36.9% 

- FY2021: 40.4% 

- FY2022: 41.5% 

- FY2023: 43.7% 

- FY2024: 51.3% 

- FY2025: 49.1% 

- FY2026: 47.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in building products & equipment; annual sales are GBP 484.8 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2026: revenue 484800000; grossProfit 229600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FAN.LSE: Volution Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and supply of ventilation products to residential and commercial constructions in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, and Australasia. It provides unitary and central extractor fans, positive input systems, mechanical heat recovery units with and without active cooling, localized cooling fans and various ancillaries for use in houses, apartments, care applications, hotels, and more; air movement solutions, including extract and supply fans and systems, mechanical heat recovery units, air handling units, fan coils, hybrid ventilation solutions, acoustic solutions, and heat recovery cells for healthcare, education, offices, car parks, data centres, airports, tunnel ventilation, mining, and other applications. The company sells its products principally under the Vent-Axia, Manrose, Diffusion, Airtech, National Ventilation, Breathing Buildings, Torin, Fresh, PAX, VoltAir, Kair, Air Connection, inVENTer, Ventilair, ClimaRad, ERI, Rtek, VMI, i-Vent, Air Design, Burra Steel, Fantech. Fantech Trade, Ideal AirGroup, Major Air, NCS Acoustic, Simx, Systemaire, DVS, and Ventair brands. Volution Group plc was founded in 2002 and is based in Crawley, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.4% to 51.3% during 2024–26; it earns 21.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.3%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800EPT84EQCDHO768/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31/reports/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 49.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 47.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.14815449220170493],[2018,0.13921641998385786],[2019,0.15709438193064326],[2020,0.07442778506246166],[2021,0.19707900523417857],[2022,0.23604610223998548],[2023,0.2792188874332682],[2024,0.37398445263357316],[2025,0.25767771759797714],[2026,0.29491593696951096]]; median 0.21656255373708203. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 2.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2438000; owner earnings 28856000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4635000; owner earnings 27324000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 4180000; owner earnings 33913000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4550000; owner earnings 23272400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4700000; owner earnings 36126200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 7011000; owner earnings 47059600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 7963000; owner earnings 43739400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 7382000; owner earnings 50489200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800EPT84EQCDHO768/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31/reports/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 6568000; owner earnings 59227000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 6600000; owner earnings 89300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); Dividend observations: [[2017,7864000],[2018,8471000],[2019,9084000],[2020,6530000],[2021,3762000],[2022,13272000],[2023,14823000],[2024,16417000],[2025,19005000],[2026,22600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2026: cash repurchases 2400000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FAN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.197 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06363689500739789. Price 637; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.1417111696409105 → FY2026 0.4434931166689843. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 167.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 150.25 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 161.25 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 174.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 177.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 187.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 196.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 197.75 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 191.50 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 190.25 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 190.75 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 199.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 211.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 215.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 205.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 219.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 210.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 196.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 197.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 210.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 196.50 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 203.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 192.50 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 190.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 173.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 170.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 143.50 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 158.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 154.25 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 169.50 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 173.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 170.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 180.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 182.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 171.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 168.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 199.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 205.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 257.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 242.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 212.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 156.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 165.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 166.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 186.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 166.50 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 166.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 169.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 194.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 230.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 279.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 292.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 313.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 395.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 416.50 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 437.50 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 418.50 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 472.50 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 527.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 492.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 494.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 499.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 553.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 500.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 494.50 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 419.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 411.50 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 407.50 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 336.50 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 416.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 349.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 293.50 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 309.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 346.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 365.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 377.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 366.50 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 430.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 433.40 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 447.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 378.20 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 401.60 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 381.80 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 361.80 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 362.60 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 394.60 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 433.60 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 435.80 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 405.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 434.60 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 435.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 451.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 451.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 547.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 565.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 613.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 578.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 556.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 560.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 533.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 512.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 538.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 568.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 609.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 591.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 670.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 632.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 633.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 657.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 632.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 645.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 642.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 712.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 570.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 614.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 614.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 611.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 619.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 675.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 653.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 637.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 163.90 per share, central GBX 185.76 per share, high GBX 214.84 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 182.83 per share, central GBX 207.06 per share, high GBX 239.32 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 205.56 per share, central GBX 233.43 per share, high GBX 270.53 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 178.88 per share, central GBX 202.55 per share, high GBX 234.08 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 201.84 per share, central GBX 228.68 per share, high GBX 264.42 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 227.79 per share, central GBX 258.61 per share, high GBX 299.64 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 246.66 per share, central GBX 279.66 per share, high GBX 323.59 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 261.90 per share, central GBX 297.23 per share, high GBX 344.25 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 326.73 per share, central GBX 371.06 per share, high GBX 430.09 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 391.54 per share, central GBX 448.61 per share, high GBX 520.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:47:28.271Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800EPT84EQCDHO768/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31/reports/213800EPT84EQCDHO768-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-07-31, filed 2025-10-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Volution Group

FAN · LSE

FTSE 250

A wonderful business at too high a price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price: GBX 637.00
Buy up to: GBX 456.12
Expected / yr: 7.9% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 28.5% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 15.1%
Worst year: 6.9%
Latest · 2026: 20.3%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 21.7% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 13.9% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 21.7%
Worst year: 7.4%
Latest · 2026: 29.5%

Each $1 of profit left $1.32 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.32×
Annual median: 1.32×
Latest · 2026: 1.43×

Per-share value rose from 0.07 to 0.22, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.14
Worst year: GBP 0.05
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.31

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -4.7% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -6.5%
Worst year: -0.8%
Latest · 2026: -4.7%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 14.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.33 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 167.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 150.25; 2016-12 · Price GBX 161.25; 2017-01 · Price GBX 174.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-02 · Price GBX 177.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-03 · Price GBX 187.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-04 · Price GBX 196.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-05 · Price GBX 197.75 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-06 · Price GBX 191.50 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-07 · Price GBX 190.25 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-08 · Price GBX 190.75 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-09 · Price GBX 199.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-10 · Price GBX 211.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-11 · Price GBX 215.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2017-12 · Price GBX 205.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2018-01 · Price GBX 219.00 · Value 185.76 · Buy at or below 185.76; 2018-02 · Price GBX 210.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-03 · Price GBX 196.50 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-04 · Price GBX 197.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-05 · Price GBX 210.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-06 · Price GBX 196.50 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-07 · Price GBX 203.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-08 · Price GBX 192.50 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-09 · Price GBX 190.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-10 · Price GBX 173.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-11 · Price GBX 170.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2018-12 · Price GBX 143.50 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2019-01 · Price GBX 158.00 · Value 207.06 · Buy at or below 207.06; 2019-02 · Price GBX 154.25 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-03 · Price GBX 169.50 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-04 · Price GBX 173.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-05 · Price GBX 170.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-06 · Price GBX 180.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-07 · Price GBX 182.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-08 · Price GBX 171.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-09 · Price GBX 168.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-10 · Price GBX 199.50 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-11 · Price GBX 205.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2019-12 · Price GBX 257.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2020-01 · Price GBX 242.00 · Value 233.43 · Buy at or below 233.43; 2020-02 · Price GBX 212.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-03 · Price GBX 156.50 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-04 · Price GBX 165.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-05 · Price GBX 166.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-06 · Price GBX 186.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-07 · Price GBX 166.50 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-08 · Price GBX 166.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-09 · Price GBX 169.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-10 · Price GBX 194.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-11 · Price GBX 230.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2020-12 · Price GBX 279.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2021-01 · Price GBX 292.00 · Value 202.55 · Buy at or below 202.55; 2021-02 · Price GBX 313.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-03 · Price GBX 395.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-04 · Price GBX 416.50 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-05 · Price GBX 437.50 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-06 · Price GBX 418.50 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-07 · Price GBX 472.50 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-08 · Price GBX 527.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-09 · Price GBX 492.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-10 · Price GBX 494.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-11 · Price GBX 499.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2021-12 · Price GBX 553.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2022-01 · Price GBX 500.00 · Value 228.68 · Buy at or below 228.68; 2022-02 · Price GBX 494.50 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-03 · Price GBX 419.50 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-04 · Price GBX 411.50 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-05 · Price GBX 407.50 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-06 · Price GBX 336.50 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-07 · Price GBX 416.50 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-08 · Price GBX 349.00 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-09 · Price GBX 293.50 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-10 · Price GBX 309.00 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-11 · Price GBX 346.00 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2022-12 · Price GBX 365.00 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2023-01 · Price GBX 377.00 · Value 258.61 · Buy at or below 258.61; 2023-02 · Price GBX 366.50 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-03 · Price GBX 430.50 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-04 · Price GBX 433.40 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-05 · Price GBX 447.00 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-06 · Price GBX 378.20 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-07 · Price GBX 401.60 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-08 · Price GBX 381.80 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-09 · Price GBX 361.80 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-10 · Price GBX 362.60 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-11 · Price GBX 394.60 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2023-12 · Price GBX 433.60 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2024-01 · Price GBX 435.80 · Value 279.66 · Buy at or below 279.66; 2024-02 · Price GBX 405.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-03 · Price GBX 434.60 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-04 · Price GBX 435.50 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-05 · Price GBX 451.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-06 · Price GBX 451.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-07 · Price GBX 547.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-08 · Price GBX 565.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-09 · Price GBX 613.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-10 · Price GBX 578.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-11 · Price GBX 556.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2024-12 · Price GBX 560.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2025-01 · Price GBX 533.00 · Value 297.23 · Buy at or below 297.23; 2025-02 · Price GBX 512.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-03 · Price GBX 538.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-04 · Price GBX 568.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-05 · Price GBX 609.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-06 · Price GBX 591.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-07 · Price GBX 670.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-08 · Price GBX 632.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-09 · Price GBX 633.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-10 · Price GBX 657.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-11 · Price GBX 632.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2025-12 · Price GBX 645.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2026-01 · Price GBX 642.00 · Value 371.06 · Buy at or below 371.06; 2026-02 · Price GBX 712.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-03 · Price GBX 570.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-04 · Price GBX 614.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-05 · Price GBX 614.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-06 · Price GBX 611.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-07 · Price GBX 619.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-08 · Price GBX 675.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-09 · Price GBX 653.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-10 · Price GBX 637.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61; 2026-10 · Price GBX 637.00 · Value 448.61 · Buy at or below 448.61

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 398.09 – GBX 528.96
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 456.12
Discount to value	1 − 637.00 / 456.12 = -39.7%
Return / year	About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 35.56/share; 0.3% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 6.16/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 485M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 89M

Owner earnings

Operating margin20.3%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -235M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares201M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·