# Diamondback Energy (FANG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FANG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:27.312Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $195.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $250.65 per share, central $357.90 per share, high $420.35 per share. Buy at or below the central value $357.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:27.312Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.4% at the stated quote. About 15.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 3.62×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.50×

- FY2018: 0.46×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: -1.95×

- FY2021: 0.59×

- FY2022: 0.68×

- FY2023: 0.55×

- FY2024: 0.40×

- FY2025: 0.33×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.28×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 13.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 13.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 48.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 83.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.7%

- FY2017: 9.1%

- FY2018: 4.8%

- FY2019: 3.2%

- FY2020: -29.6%

- FY2021: 17.2%

- FY2022: 24.4%

- FY2023: 15.7%

- FY2024: 7.2%

- FY2025: 7.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $13B

- Net income, five-year total: $15B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 19.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.91×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.8% vs 7.8%

- Per-share earnings: -2.20 to 15.63 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 16.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 12.8%

- Market cap gain: $34B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 16.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 12.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $17.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.20

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $15.63

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $8.0M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $12B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.20

- FY2017: $4.93

- FY2018: $8.06

- FY2019: $1.46

- FY2020: -$28.59

- FY2021: $12.35

- FY2022: $24.84

- FY2023: $17.46

- FY2024: $15.63

- FY2025: $5.76

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.64×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.26×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.3%

- FY2017: -5.2%

- FY2018: -3.3%

- FY2019: -10.6%

- FY2020: -37.7%

- FY2021: -7.7%

- FY2022: -7.4%

- FY2023: -9.6%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -10.0%

## Holders

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.1% a year for ten years · sales +13.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:44.361Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-06: Diamondback Energy (NasdaqGS:FANG) Reports Strong Q1 Earnings and Declares US$1.00 Dividend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diamondback-energy-nasdaqgs-fang-reports-181446687.html))

- 2025-11-03: Diamondback Energy Profit, Revenue Jump as Oil Production Rises ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7d6c5719-b442-37ac-b99f-b0ab86ecd634/diamondback-energy-profit%2C.html))

- 2026-01-13: Diamondback Energy Braces for Q4 Earnings Hit as Oil Prices Slide ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diamondback-energy-braces-q4-earnings-153700554.html))

- 2026-02-24: Diamondback Lifts Dividend After $5.9B Free Cash Flow in 2025 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diamondback-lifts-dividend-5-9b-013627809.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +13.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $1.2B 

- FY2018: $2.2B 

- FY2019: $4.0B 

- FY2020: $2.8B 

- FY2021: $6.7B 

- FY2022: $9.6B 

- FY2023: $8.3B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $15B 

- FY2026: $17B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 35.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 41.9% 

- FY2017: 54.3% 

- FY2018: 51.3% 

- FY2019: 40.2% 

- FY2020: 22.6% 

- FY2021: 63.3% 

- FY2022: 70.1% 

- FY2023: 57.5% 

- FY2024: 45.1% 

- FY2025: 35.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 15 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 15026000000; grossProfit 5283000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.2% to 57.5% during 2023–25; it earns 7.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 57.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.01720511944016756],[2017,0.09101013883032566],[2018,0.047649913604191685],[2019,0.032486312493025665],[2020,-0.2958987688098495],[2021,0.17205107286916738],[2022,0.24379412305116588],[2023,0.1571033994264216],[2024,0.07228746739141118],[2025,0.07845865525806761]]; median 0.0753730613247394. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 2975000000; upkeep 327000000; owner earnings 482000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 6.172199170124482.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 2853000000; upkeep 623000000; owner earnings 846000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.372340425531915.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 2248000000; upkeep 1454000000; owner earnings 240000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 9.366666666666667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 1024000000; upkeep 1275000000; owner earnings 2182000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4692942254812099.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 2161000000; upkeep 1344000000; owner earnings 4386000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.49270405836753306.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 4714000000; owner earnings 175000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 8937000000; upkeep 2850000000; owner earnings 3338000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.677351707609347.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3523000000; owner earnings 3179000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,37000000],[2017,37000000],[2018,37000000],[2019,112000000],[2020,236000000],[2021,312000000],[2022,1572000000],[2023,1444000000],[2024,1578000000],[2025,1156000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 2010000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 23.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FANG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 23.877000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our operations are substantially dependent on the availability of water." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Our operations are substantially dependent on the availability of water.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.02829511455837974. Price 195.6; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -19.597549945254606 → FY2025 10.996993901321092. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $91.29 per share

- 2016-11: $107.85 per share

- 2016-12: $101.06 per share

- 2017-01: $105.17 per share

- 2017-02: $100.86 per share

- 2017-03: $103.72 per share

- 2017-04: $99.84 per share

- 2017-05: $92.76 per share

- 2017-06: $88.81 per share

- 2017-07: $95.88 per share

- 2017-08: $90.79 per share

- 2017-09: $97.96 per share

- 2017-10: $107.16 per share

- 2017-11: $109.31 per share

- 2017-12: $126.25 per share

- 2018-01: $125.50 per share

- 2018-02: $124.64 per share

- 2018-03: $126.52 per share

- 2018-04: $128.45 per share

- 2018-05: $120.76 per share

- 2018-06: $131.57 per share

- 2018-07: $131.95 per share

- 2018-08: $121.08 per share

- 2018-09: $135.19 per share

- 2018-10: $112.36 per share

- 2018-11: $110.38 per share

- 2018-12: $92.70 per share

- 2019-01: $103.12 per share

- 2019-02: $102.93 per share

- 2019-03: $101.53 per share

- 2019-04: $106.39 per share

- 2019-05: $98.06 per share

- 2019-06: $108.97 per share

- 2019-07: $103.43 per share

- 2019-08: $98.08 per share

- 2019-09: $89.91 per share

- 2019-10: $85.76 per share

- 2019-11: $77.34 per share

- 2019-12: $92.86 per share

- 2020-01: $74.40 per share

- 2020-02: $62.00 per share

- 2020-03: $26.20 per share

- 2020-04: $43.54 per share

- 2020-05: $42.58 per share

- 2020-06: $41.82 per share

- 2020-07: $39.86 per share

- 2020-08: $38.96 per share

- 2020-09: $30.12 per share

- 2020-10: $25.96 per share

- 2020-11: $39.96 per share

- 2020-12: $48.40 per share

- 2021-01: $56.69 per share

- 2021-02: $69.28 per share

- 2021-03: $73.49 per share

- 2021-04: $81.73 per share

- 2021-05: $80.07 per share

- 2021-06: $93.89 per share

- 2021-07: $77.13 per share

- 2021-08: $77.14 per share

- 2021-09: $94.67 per share

- 2021-10: $107.19 per share

- 2021-11: $106.73 per share

- 2021-12: $107.85 per share

- 2022-01: $126.16 per share

- 2022-02: $138.10 per share

- 2022-03: $137.08 per share

- 2022-04: $126.23 per share

- 2022-05: $152.02 per share

- 2022-06: $121.15 per share

- 2022-07: $128.02 per share

- 2022-08: $133.28 per share

- 2022-09: $120.46 per share

- 2022-10: $157.11 per share

- 2022-11: $148.02 per share

- 2022-12: $136.78 per share

- 2023-01: $146.12 per share

- 2023-02: $140.58 per share

- 2023-03: $135.17 per share

- 2023-04: $142.20 per share

- 2023-05: $127.15 per share

- 2023-06: $131.36 per share

- 2023-07: $147.32 per share

- 2023-08: $151.78 per share

- 2023-09: $154.88 per share

- 2023-10: $160.32 per share

- 2023-11: $154.41 per share

- 2023-12: $155.08 per share

- 2024-01: $153.74 per share

- 2024-02: $182.52 per share

- 2024-03: $198.17 per share

- 2024-04: $201.13 per share

- 2024-05: $199.26 per share

- 2024-06: $200.19 per share

- 2024-07: $202.31 per share

- 2024-08: $195.11 per share

- 2024-09: $172.40 per share

- 2024-10: $176.77 per share

- 2024-11: $177.59 per share

- 2024-12: $163.83 per share

- 2025-01: $164.36 per share

- 2025-02: $158.96 per share

- 2025-03: $159.88 per share

- 2025-04: $132.01 per share

- 2025-05: $134.55 per share

- 2025-06: $137.40 per share

- 2025-07: $148.66 per share

- 2025-08: $148.76 per share

- 2025-09: $143.10 per share

- 2025-10: $143.19 per share

- 2025-11: $152.59 per share

- 2025-12: $150.33 per share

- 2026-01: $163.95 per share

- 2026-02: $174.08 per share

- 2026-03: $197.79 per share

- 2026-04: $205.63 per share

- 2026-05: $191.48 per share

- 2026-06: $175.78 per share

- 2026-07: $202.95 per share

- 2026-08: $200.48 per share

- 2026-09: $183.81 per share

- 2026-10: $198.18 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $17.10 per share, central $19.33 per share, high $22.30 per share

- FY2018: low $89.76 per share, central $101.91 per share, high $118.08 per share

- FY2019: low $20.12 per share, central $28.65 per share, high $33.62 per share

- FY2020: low $14.93 per share, central $21.21 per share, high $24.87 per share

- FY2021: low $170.87 per share, central $242.84 per share, high $284.74 per share

- FY2022: low $238.24 per share, central $340.33 per share, high $399.78 per share

- FY2023: low $37.55 per share, central $48.70 per share, high $56.60 per share

- FY2024: low $212.51 per share, central $303.57 per share, high $356.60 per share

- FY2025: low $213.99 per share, central $305.69 per share, high $359.09 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:09.013Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1539838/000153983826000010/fang-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.