# Fastenal (FAST.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FAST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:27.615Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $50.38 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $17.43 per share, central $24.68 per share, high $28.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value $24.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:27.615Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.02×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 28.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 45.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 27.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 23.4%

- FY2017: 24.4%

- FY2018: 28.9%

- FY2019: 26.0%

- FY2020: 27.6%

- FY2021: 27.1%

- FY2022: 29.4%

- FY2023: 31.7%

- FY2024: 30.0%

- FY2025: 30.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 41.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 32.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.4% vs 30.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.44 to 1.01 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: $32B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.57

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.44

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.01

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.94

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.43

- FY2017: $0.50

- FY2018: $0.65

- FY2019: $0.69

- FY2020: $0.75

- FY2021: $0.80

- FY2022: $0.94

- FY2023: $1.01

- FY2024: $1.00

- FY2025: $1.09

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.03×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.5%

- FY2017: -0.2%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: 3.6%

- FY2022: 3.2%

- FY2023: -6.2%

- FY2024: -0.5%

- FY2025: -0.7%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.7% a year for ten years · "Fastenal Stock Outlook 2026 as Digital Gains Lift Industrial Sales" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +6.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:44.426Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-11: Fastenal's bigger orders offset weaker demand for industrial supplies ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastenals-bigger-orders-offset-weaker-122606704.html))

- 2025-07-14: Fastenal shares rise, Q2 tops estimates after improved customer contract signings ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastenal-shares-rise-q2-tops-113241861.html))

- 2025-10-13: Fastenal Falls as Soft Pricing Overshadows Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fastenal-falls-soft-pricing-overshadows-202256216.html))

- 2026-01-20: Fastenal Fourth-Quarter Sales Miss Street Views Amid Sluggish Industrial Production ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastenal-fourth-quarter-sales-miss-151829460.html))

- 2026-02-03: Barclays Reviews Fastenal (FAST) as Lower Pricing Weighs on Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-reviews-fastenal-fast-lower-142914440.html))

- 2026-06-04: Fastenal's May daily sales jump nearly 15% on manufacturing strength ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4600802-fastenals-may-daily-sales-jump-nearly-15-on-manufacturing-strength?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: $4.4B 

- FY2018: $5.0B 

- FY2019: $5.3B 

- FY2020: $5.6B 

- FY2021: $6.0B 

- FY2022: $7.0B 

- FY2023: $7.3B 

- FY2024: $7.5B 

- FY2025: $8.2B 

- FY2026: $8.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 45%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2016: 49.6% 

- FY2017: 49.3% 

- FY2018: 48.3% 

- FY2019: 47.2% 

- FY2020: 45.5% 

- FY2021: 46.2% 

- FY2022: 46.1% 

- FY2023: 45.7% 

- FY2024: 45.1% 

- FY2025: 45.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in industrial distribution; annual sales are USD 8.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: revenue 8200500000; grossProfit 3691200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FAST.US: Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 45% to 45.7% during 2023–25; it earns 28.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 45.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 45%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.23402017313882548],[2017,0.24399392752386395],[2018,0.2888233739428353],[2019,0.2599974344772802],[2020,0.27600775261503263],[2021,0.2708121908420179],[2022,0.293736658456486],[2023,0.3167466016064725],[2024,0.2995526661725392],[2025,0.30640646768477503]]; median 0.28241556327893397. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 46% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.4620273170407094],[2022,0.46067673265908377],[2023,0.4565995617079777]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 5.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 41.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2016: growth capex 18660263.160812795; upkeep 170790736.8391872; owner earnings 432609263.1608128. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0431342200684137.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 119900000; owner earnings 586100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2018: growth capex 38100000; upkeep 138200000; owner earnings 751900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05067163186593962.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2019: growth capex 78581580.25410652; upkeep 167818419.74589348; owner earnings 771781580.2541065. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10181841892136606.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2020: growth capex 5700000; upkeep 162400000; owner earnings 859100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.006634850424863229.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 156600000; owner earnings 939100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 173800000; owner earnings 1089700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 172800000; owner earnings 1159500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: growth capex 38518048.73000699; upkeep 187981951.269993; owner earnings 1138018048.730007. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03384660618782975.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: growth capex 66100000; upkeep 179200000; owner earnings 1258400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.052527018436109345.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Incremental return on capital 0.4148651067841312, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,346600000],[2017,369100000],[2018,441900000],[2019,498600000],[2020,803400000],[2021,643700000],[2022,711300000],[2023,1016800000],[2024,893300000],[2025,1004200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FAST.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.08800000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Trade policies could make sourcing product from overseas more difficult and/or more costly" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); Trade policies could make sourcing product from overseas more difficult and/or more costly

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2899210769092012. Price 50.38; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.40508813803140453 → FY2025 1.093942956424514. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $11.85 per share

- 2016-12: $11.74 per share

- 2017-01: $12.42 per share

- 2017-02: $12.51 per share

- 2017-03: $12.88 per share

- 2017-04: $11.17 per share

- 2017-05: $10.79 per share

- 2017-06: $10.88 per share

- 2017-07: $10.74 per share

- 2017-08: $10.67 per share

- 2017-09: $11.40 per share

- 2017-10: $11.74 per share

- 2017-11: $13.10 per share

- 2017-12: $13.67 per share

- 2018-01: $13.74 per share

- 2018-02: $13.68 per share

- 2018-03: $13.65 per share

- 2018-04: $12.50 per share

- 2018-05: $13.31 per share

- 2018-06: $12.03 per share

- 2018-07: $14.23 per share

- 2018-08: $14.59 per share

- 2018-09: $14.51 per share

- 2018-10: $12.85 per share

- 2018-11: $14.81 per share

- 2018-12: $13.07 per share

- 2019-01: $15.11 per share

- 2019-02: $15.73 per share

- 2019-03: $16.08 per share

- 2019-04: $17.64 per share

- 2019-05: $15.30 per share

- 2019-06: $16.30 per share

- 2019-07: $15.40 per share

- 2019-08: $15.31 per share

- 2019-09: $16.33 per share

- 2019-10: $17.97 per share

- 2019-11: $17.76 per share

- 2019-12: $18.48 per share

- 2020-01: $17.44 per share

- 2020-02: $17.11 per share

- 2020-03: $15.63 per share

- 2020-04: $18.11 per share

- 2020-05: $20.63 per share

- 2020-06: $21.42 per share

- 2020-07: $23.52 per share

- 2020-08: $24.43 per share

- 2020-09: $22.55 per share

- 2020-10: $21.61 per share

- 2020-11: $24.73 per share

- 2020-12: $24.42 per share

- 2021-01: $22.80 per share

- 2021-02: $23.18 per share

- 2021-03: $25.14 per share

- 2021-04: $26.14 per share

- 2021-05: $26.52 per share

- 2021-06: $26.00 per share

- 2021-07: $27.39 per share

- 2021-08: $27.92 per share

- 2021-09: $25.81 per share

- 2021-10: $28.54 per share

- 2021-11: $29.58 per share

- 2021-12: $32.03 per share

- 2022-01: $28.34 per share

- 2022-02: $25.73 per share

- 2022-03: $29.70 per share

- 2022-04: $27.66 per share

- 2022-05: $26.78 per share

- 2022-06: $24.96 per share

- 2022-07: $25.68 per share

- 2022-08: $25.17 per share

- 2022-09: $23.02 per share

- 2022-10: $24.17 per share

- 2022-11: $25.75 per share

- 2022-12: $23.66 per share

- 2023-01: $25.27 per share

- 2023-02: $25.78 per share

- 2023-03: $26.97 per share

- 2023-04: $26.92 per share

- 2023-05: $26.92 per share

- 2023-06: $29.50 per share

- 2023-07: $29.31 per share

- 2023-08: $28.79 per share

- 2023-09: $27.32 per share

- 2023-10: $29.17 per share

- 2023-11: $29.99 per share

- 2023-12: $32.38 per share

- 2024-01: $34.12 per share

- 2024-02: $36.51 per share

- 2024-03: $38.57 per share

- 2024-04: $33.97 per share

- 2024-05: $32.99 per share

- 2024-06: $31.42 per share

- 2024-07: $35.38 per share

- 2024-08: $34.14 per share

- 2024-09: $35.71 per share

- 2024-10: $39.09 per share

- 2024-11: $41.78 per share

- 2024-12: $35.96 per share

- 2025-01: $36.62 per share

- 2025-02: $37.87 per share

- 2025-03: $38.78 per share

- 2025-04: $40.49 per share

- 2025-05: $41.34 per share

- 2025-06: $42.00 per share

- 2025-07: $46.13 per share

- 2025-08: $49.66 per share

- 2025-09: $49.04 per share

- 2025-10: $41.15 per share

- 2025-11: $40.40 per share

- 2025-12: $40.13 per share

- 2026-01: $43.36 per share

- 2026-02: $46.04 per share

- 2026-03: $46.40 per share

- 2026-04: $44.93 per share

- 2026-05: $44.20 per share

- 2026-06: $48.03 per share

- 2026-07: $47.71 per share

- 2026-08: $49.31 per share

- 2026-09: $49.53 per share

- 2026-10: $51.43 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $5.77 per share, central $8.08 per share, high $9.47 per share

- FY2017: low $6.64 per share, central $9.62 per share, high $11.30 per share

- FY2018: low $7.74 per share, central $11.26 per share, high $13.22 per share

- FY2019: low $9.06 per share, central $13.19 per share, high $15.49 per share

- FY2020: low $9.76 per share, central $13.90 per share, high $16.31 per share

- FY2021: low $11.31 per share, central $16.11 per share, high $18.91 per share

- FY2022: low $13.36 per share, central $19.30 per share, high $22.67 per share

- FY2023: low $14.60 per share, central $21.26 per share, high $24.98 per share

- FY2024: low $14.45 per share, central $20.29 per share, high $23.80 per share

- FY2025: low $15.78 per share, central $22.31 per share, high $26.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:09.305Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815556/000081555626000009/fast-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.