# FedEx (FDX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FDX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:29.783Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $295.54 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $270.85 per share, central $366.25 per share, high $421.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value $366.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:29.783Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.9% at the stated quote. About 11.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 1.03×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.41×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 19.9%

- FY2019: 15.1%

- FY2020: 5.1%

- FY2021: 10.1%

- FY2022: 10.5%

- FY2023: 7.7%

- FY2024: 9.0%

- FY2025: 8.6%

- FY2026: 9.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $19B

- Net income, five-year total: $21B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.50×

- FY2024: 0.79×

- FY2025: 1.05×

- FY2026: 1.13×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2026 (10 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 7.04 to 17.25 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -6.4%

- Market cap gain: $39B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $24B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 11.8%

- Per-share value change: $10.21

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $7.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $17.25

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.64

- Average buyback yield: 3.1%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $33B

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $4.15

- FY2018: $13.54

- FY2019: $1.64

- FY2020: $3.96

- FY2021: $15.73

- FY2022: $11.59

- FY2023: $12.50

- FY2024: $17.25

- FY2025: $16.84

- FY2026: $18.55

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -4.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.01×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.22×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -0.2%

- FY2019: -9.3%

- FY2020: -5.2%

- FY2021: -5.9%

- FY2022: -7.0%

- FY2023: -5.6%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -3.4%

- FY2026: -4.5%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.3% a year for ten years · "Transformation-Related Savings: $1 billion expected in FY26." (finance.yahoo.com, Jun 2025) · sales +7.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:44.998Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-13: FDX Looks to Cut Costs to Mitigate Demand Woes: What's the Road Ahead? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fdx-looks-cut-costs-mitigate-143400391.html))

- 2025-11-11: FedEx Climbs as Profit Guidance Eases Holiday Season Worries ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex-sees-earnings-improving-ahead-183041700.html))

- 2026-02-12: FedEx Targets European Growth With InPost Stake And AI Parcel Automation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex-targets-european-growth-inpost-031609467.html))

- 2026-03-20: FedEx Freight’s outlook lowered again ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fedex-freight-outlook-lowered-again-003030063.html))

- 2026-04-08: FedEx Unveils Freight Spinoff Outlook With 10%--12% Profit Growth Target ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fedex-unveils-freight-spinoff-outlook-204147504.html))

- 2026-08-21: UPS and FedEx land government delivery contract modifications ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4635803-ups-and-fedex-land-government-delivery-contract-modifications?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm; observed 2026-07-20.

- FY2017: $7.4B 

- FY2018: $65B 

- FY2019: $70B 

- FY2020: $69B 

- FY2021: $84B 

- FY2022: $94B 

- FY2023: $90B 

- FY2024: $88B 

- FY2025: $88B 

- FY2026: $95B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 21.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm; observed 2026-07-20.

- FY2017: 80.6% 

- FY2018: 21.5% 

- FY2019: 21.3% 

- FY2020: 19.3% 

- FY2021: 21.2% 

- FY2022: 21.6% 

- FY2023: 21.3% 

- FY2024: 21.6% 

- FY2025: 21.6% 

- FY2026: 21.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are USD 94.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-20); FY2026: revenue 94720000000; grossProfit 20622000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FDX.US: FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Express U.S. Domestic and Express International. It provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.6% to 21.8% during 2024–26; it earns 9.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-20); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 21.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.19908395761363196],[2019,0.1509741696446957],[2020,0.050912278170476076],[2021,0.1013261837833896],[2022,0.10468713673892022],[2023,0.0773237153844852],[2024,0.09004256036758229],[2025,0.08579340436641203],[2026,0.0929150467399751]]; median 0.0929150467399751. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"On January 5, 2026, a 5.9% average list price increase was implemented for services." (SEC filing, Jul 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-20); On January 5, 2026, a 5.9% average list price increase was implemented for services.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 796 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2018: growth capex 2568000000; upkeep 3095000000; cash acquisitions 179000000; owner earnings 4572000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6008311461067367.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2019: growth capex 1838863790.1918354; upkeep 3651136209.8081646; cash acquisitions 66000000; owner earnings 241863790.1918354. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 7.875770857146429.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2021: growth capex 2091000000; upkeep 3793000000; cash acquisitions 228000000; owner earnings 5231000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.44331867711718603.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2022: growth capex 2793000000; upkeep 3970000000; owner earnings 3826000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7300052273915316.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6174000000; owner earnings 1974000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 5176000000; owner earnings 3442000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4055000000; owner earnings 4301000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-20); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 3809000000; owner earnings 4993000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); Dividend observations: [[2017,1072000000],[2018,535000000],[2019,683000000],[2020,679000000],[2021,686000000],[2022,793000000],[2023,1177000000],[2024,1259000000],[2025,1339000000],[2026,1374000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-20); FY2026: cash repurchases 796000000 USD.

### What could break it

"We may not realize the anticipated benefits from the Spin-Off" (SEC filing, Jul 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-20); We may not realize the anticipated benefits from the Spin-Off

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03466545228557172. Price 295.54; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.044444444444444446 → FY2026 20.89121338912134. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $154.45 per share

- 2016-12: $150.04 per share

- 2017-01: $152.39 per share

- 2017-02: $155.50 per share

- 2017-03: $157.25 per share

- 2017-04: $152.86 per share

- 2017-05: $156.20 per share

- 2017-06: $175.12 per share

- 2017-07: $167.63 per share

- 2017-08: $172.75 per share

- 2017-09: $181.77 per share

- 2017-10: $181.96 per share

- 2017-11: $186.51 per share

- 2017-12: $201.08 per share

- 2018-01: $211.51 per share

- 2018-02: $198.56 per share

- 2018-03: $193.48 per share

- 2018-04: $199.19 per share

- 2018-05: $200.74 per share

- 2018-06: $182.97 per share

- 2018-07: $198.12 per share

- 2018-08: $196.58 per share

- 2018-09: $194.03 per share

- 2018-10: $177.55 per share

- 2018-11: $184.53 per share

- 2018-12: $130.00 per share

- 2019-01: $143.09 per share

- 2019-02: $145.85 per share

- 2019-03: $146.18 per share

- 2019-04: $152.67 per share

- 2019-05: $124.32 per share

- 2019-06: $132.30 per share

- 2019-07: $137.41 per share

- 2019-08: $127.81 per share

- 2019-09: $117.30 per share

- 2019-10: $123.01 per share

- 2019-11: $128.97 per share

- 2019-12: $121.85 per share

- 2020-01: $116.55 per share

- 2020-02: $113.76 per share

- 2020-03: $97.71 per share

- 2020-04: $102.15 per share

- 2020-05: $105.21 per share

- 2020-06: $112.99 per share

- 2020-07: $135.70 per share

- 2020-08: $177.15 per share

- 2020-09: $202.68 per share

- 2020-10: $209.08 per share

- 2020-11: $230.93 per share

- 2020-12: $209.20 per share

- 2021-01: $189.64 per share

- 2021-02: $205.08 per share

- 2021-03: $228.88 per share

- 2021-04: $233.93 per share

- 2021-05: $253.67 per share

- 2021-06: $240.39 per share

- 2021-07: $225.58 per share

- 2021-08: $214.09 per share

- 2021-09: $176.70 per share

- 2021-10: $189.79 per share

- 2021-11: $185.63 per share

- 2021-12: $208.41 per share

- 2022-01: $198.11 per share

- 2022-02: $179.11 per share

- 2022-03: $186.45 per share

- 2022-04: $160.15 per share

- 2022-05: $180.97 per share

- 2022-06: $182.68 per share

- 2022-07: $187.82 per share

- 2022-08: $169.87 per share

- 2022-09: $119.64 per share

- 2022-10: $129.15 per share

- 2022-11: $146.83 per share

- 2022-12: $139.56 per share

- 2023-01: $156.21 per share

- 2023-02: $163.76 per share

- 2023-03: $184.12 per share

- 2023-04: $183.55 per share

- 2023-05: $175.65 per share

- 2023-06: $199.76 per share

- 2023-07: $217.53 per share

- 2023-08: $210.33 per share

- 2023-09: $213.47 per share

- 2023-10: $193.47 per share

- 2023-11: $208.57 per share

- 2023-12: $203.84 per share

- 2024-01: $194.43 per share

- 2024-02: $200.62 per share

- 2024-03: $233.47 per share

- 2024-04: $210.94 per share

- 2024-05: $204.64 per share

- 2024-06: $241.61 per share

- 2024-07: $243.55 per share

- 2024-08: $240.75 per share

- 2024-09: $220.53 per share

- 2024-10: $220.67 per share

- 2024-11: $243.89 per share

- 2024-12: $226.70 per share

- 2025-01: $213.43 per share

- 2025-02: $211.85 per share

- 2025-03: $196.44 per share

- 2025-04: $169.48 per share

- 2025-05: $175.75 per share

- 2025-06: $183.17 per share

- 2025-07: $180.09 per share

- 2025-08: $186.20 per share

- 2025-09: $190.02 per share

- 2025-10: $204.53 per share

- 2025-11: $222.14 per share

- 2025-12: $232.76 per share

- 2026-01: $259.67 per share

- 2026-02: $311.85 per share

- 2026-03: $287.01 per share

- 2026-04: $324.99 per share

- 2026-05: $331.79 per share

- 2026-06: $313.13 per share

- 2026-07: $307.40 per share

- 2026-08: $327.40 per share

- 2026-09: $285.09 per share

- 2026-10: $290.59 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $28.16 per share, central $33.25 per share, high $36.22 per share

- FY2022: low $172.80 per share, central $240.32 per share, high $279.64 per share

- FY2023: low $98.60 per share, central $131.47 per share, high $151.52 per share

- FY2024: low $205.34 per share, central $285.23 per share, high $331.75 per share

- FY2025: low $177.51 per share, central $199.82 per share, high $229.52 per share

- FY2026: low $268.21 per share, central $362.68 per share, high $417.69 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000105/fdx-20260531.htm); period 2026-05-31, filed 2026-07-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.