# Comfort Systems USA (FIX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FIX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:32.978Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $1,481.27 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $338.52 per share, central $463.73 per share, high $536.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value $463.73 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:32.978Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.1% at the stated quote. About 5.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.42×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.16×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 37.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 23.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 26.7%

- FY2018: 38.8%

- FY2019: 23.9%

- FY2020: 34.8%

- FY2021: 21.2%

- FY2022: 35.3%

- FY2023: 52.6%

- FY2024: 99.9%

- FY2025: 84.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.05×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 52.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.33×

- FY2022: 1.13×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 33.3% vs 84.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.47 to 14.60 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: $32B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 33.3%

- Per-share value change: $13.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $14.60

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.78

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 33.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 84.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.72

- FY2017: $1.47

- FY2018: $3.00

- FY2019: $3.08

- FY2020: $4.09

- FY2021: $3.93

- FY2022: $6.82

- FY2023: $9.01

- FY2024: $14.60

- FY2025: $28.88

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.16×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.62×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.7%

- FY2017: -6.7%

- FY2018: -3.2%

- FY2019: -1.8%

- FY2020: -7.8%

- FY2021: -1.7%

- FY2022: -2.1%

- FY2023: -9.6%

- FY2024: -6.9%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 25% since Jun 2026 · "Comfort Systems Growth Story Rests on Record Backlog and Modular Scale" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +23.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:45.835Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-28: Comfort Systems USA (NYSE:FIX) Reports Net Income Jump To US$169M ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comfort-systems-usa-nyse-fix-173533928.html))

- 2025-05-12: FIX Q1 Earnings Call: Technology Demand and Backlog Expansion Drive Outperformance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fix-q1-earnings-call-technology-114814400.html))

- 2025-10-24: FIX Q3 Deep Dive: Tech Sector and Modular Growth Drive Strong Backlog Expansion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fix-q3-deep-dive-tech-201130093.html))

- 2026-02-17: Comfort Systems USA Rides AI Data Center Boom With Rich Valuation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comfort-systems-usa-rides-ai-070931621.html))

- 2026-04-28: FIX Q1 Deep Dive: Data Center Demand Powers Growth, Margin Sustainability in Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fix-q1-deep-dive-data-010855170.html))

- 2026-06-18: Comfort Systems USA (FIX) Sees AI Data Center Demand Fill Its Backlog ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/comfort-systems-usa-fix-sees-061003752.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +23.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $1.8B 

- FY2018: $2.2B 

- FY2019: $2.6B 

- FY2020: $2.9B 

- FY2021: $3.1B 

- FY2022: $4.1B 

- FY2023: $5.2B 

- FY2024: $7.0B 

- FY2025: $9.1B 

- FY2026: $11B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 25.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 20.5% 

- FY2018: 20.4% 

- FY2019: 19.2% 

- FY2020: 19.1% 

- FY2021: 18.3% 

- FY2022: 17.9% 

- FY2023: 19.0% 

- FY2024: 21.0% 

- FY2025: 24.1% 

- FY2026: 25.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are USD 9.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 9101641000; grossProfit 2195899000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FIX.US: Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection. The company is also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of systems in existing buildings. In addition, it provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems. The company serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19% to 24.1% during 2023–25; it earns 37% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.26731660023699233],[2018,0.38784336054966],[2019,0.23943144906250968],[2020,0.3479768910447241],[2021,0.21202795335062408],[2022,0.35253867733244454],[2023,0.5260219250263433],[2024,0.9987564935279115],[2025,0.8455138816632262],[2026,2.450103118055997]]; median 0.3701910189410523. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 18% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.18323802818551058],[2022,0.17911661873207282],[2023,0.19023519424747828]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 1.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 52.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 23217000; owner earnings 67845000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 35467000; owner earnings 57261000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 27268000; owner earnings 128324000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 31750000; owner earnings 134146000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 24131000; owner earnings 186637000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 22330000; owner earnings 189962000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 48359000; owner earnings 278935000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 13272000; upkeep 81566000; owner earnings 323398000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04103921483744488.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 111071000; owner earnings 556847000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 12944000; upkeep 141959000; owner earnings 1022558000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012658450669790858.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 0.5225128972044043, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,10264000],[2017,10987000],[2018,12268000],[2019,14543000],[2020,15499000],[2021,17384000],[2022,20077000],[2023,30379000],[2024,42766000],[2025,68833000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 215999000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FIX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.081 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"A significant portion of our business depends on our ability to provide surety bonds." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); A significant portion of our business depends on our ability to provide surety bonds.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 22.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 35.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3141088696099189. Price 1481.27; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.3724516742368227 → FY2025 28.87521531640923. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $28.85 per share

- 2016-11: $32.20 per share

- 2016-12: $33.30 per share

- 2017-01: $33.85 per share

- 2017-02: $38.15 per share

- 2017-03: $36.65 per share

- 2017-04: $36.70 per share

- 2017-05: $34.45 per share

- 2017-06: $37.10 per share

- 2017-07: $33.30 per share

- 2017-08: $34.05 per share

- 2017-09: $35.70 per share

- 2017-10: $44.30 per share

- 2017-11: $42.95 per share

- 2017-12: $43.65 per share

- 2018-01: $42.60 per share

- 2018-02: $41.05 per share

- 2018-03: $41.25 per share

- 2018-04: $42.20 per share

- 2018-05: $46.85 per share

- 2018-06: $45.80 per share

- 2018-07: $55.55 per share

- 2018-08: $57.40 per share

- 2018-09: $56.40 per share

- 2018-10: $53.48 per share

- 2018-11: $52.66 per share

- 2018-12: $43.68 per share

- 2019-01: $47.97 per share

- 2019-02: $53.62 per share

- 2019-03: $52.39 per share

- 2019-04: $54.10 per share

- 2019-05: $47.18 per share

- 2019-06: $50.99 per share

- 2019-07: $42.00 per share

- 2019-08: $38.66 per share

- 2019-09: $44.23 per share

- 2019-10: $50.41 per share

- 2019-11: $51.10 per share

- 2019-12: $49.85 per share

- 2020-01: $46.40 per share

- 2020-02: $42.22 per share

- 2020-03: $36.55 per share

- 2020-04: $33.30 per share

- 2020-05: $37.00 per share

- 2020-06: $40.75 per share

- 2020-07: $49.71 per share

- 2020-08: $50.67 per share

- 2020-09: $51.51 per share

- 2020-10: $45.80 per share

- 2020-11: $50.39 per share

- 2020-12: $52.66 per share

- 2021-01: $55.43 per share

- 2021-02: $61.94 per share

- 2021-03: $74.77 per share

- 2021-04: $82.36 per share

- 2021-05: $82.90 per share

- 2021-06: $78.79 per share

- 2021-07: $74.75 per share

- 2021-08: $75.98 per share

- 2021-09: $71.32 per share

- 2021-10: $91.47 per share

- 2021-11: $94.87 per share

- 2021-12: $98.94 per share

- 2022-01: $89.78 per share

- 2022-02: $85.98 per share

- 2022-03: $89.01 per share

- 2022-04: $84.42 per share

- 2022-05: $89.72 per share

- 2022-06: $83.15 per share

- 2022-07: $105.66 per share

- 2022-08: $100.34 per share

- 2022-09: $97.33 per share

- 2022-10: $123.28 per share

- 2022-11: $126.76 per share

- 2022-12: $115.08 per share

- 2023-01: $121.04 per share

- 2023-02: $145.44 per share

- 2023-03: $145.96 per share

- 2023-04: $149.49 per share

- 2023-05: $147.98 per share

- 2023-06: $164.20 per share

- 2023-07: $173.97 per share

- 2023-08: $184.57 per share

- 2023-09: $170.41 per share

- 2023-10: $181.85 per share

- 2023-11: $193.58 per share

- 2023-12: $205.67 per share

- 2024-01: $217.47 per share

- 2024-02: $305.73 per share

- 2024-03: $317.71 per share

- 2024-04: $309.41 per share

- 2024-05: $327.34 per share

- 2024-06: $304.12 per share

- 2024-07: $332.42 per share

- 2024-08: $353.52 per share

- 2024-09: $390.35 per share

- 2024-10: $391.04 per share

- 2024-11: $493.27 per share

- 2024-12: $424.06 per share

- 2025-01: $436.75 per share

- 2025-02: $363.33 per share

- 2025-03: $322.33 per share

- 2025-04: $397.55 per share

- 2025-05: $478.23 per share

- 2025-06: $536.21 per share

- 2025-07: $703.30 per share

- 2025-08: $703.38 per share

- 2025-09: $825.18 per share

- 2025-10: $965.58 per share

- 2025-11: $976.94 per share

- 2025-12: $933.29 per share

- 2026-01: $1,142.10 per share

- 2026-02: $1,429.37 per share

- 2026-03: $1,378.99 per share

- 2026-04: $1,840.25 per share

- 2026-05: $1,828.21 per share

- 2026-06: $1,981.95 per share

- 2026-07: $1,729.69 per share

- 2026-08: $1,545.62 per share

- 2026-09: $1,654.09 per share

- 2026-10: $1,626.64 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.64 per share, central $13.07 per share, high $15.25 per share

- FY2017: low $17.69 per share, central $21.46 per share, high $25.01 per share

- FY2018: low $22.54 per share, central $27.74 per share, high $32.34 per share

- FY2019: low $36.96 per share, central $48.98 per share, high $57.33 per share

- FY2020: low $50.61 per share, central $67.32 per share, high $78.81 per share

- FY2021: low $62.58 per share, central $82.81 per share, high $96.93 per share

- FY2022: low $103.08 per share, central $150.37 per share, high $176.75 per share

- FY2023: low $133.64 per share, central $193.66 per share, high $227.13 per share

- FY2024: low $197.80 per share, central $283.30 per share, high $330.98 per share

- FY2025: low $274.01 per share, central $389.36 per share, high $453.69 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:14.802Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.