# Franco-Nevada (FNV.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FNV.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:59.117Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 341.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 134.30 per share, central CAD 189.88 per share, high CAD 222.25 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 189.88 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:59.117Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.9% at the stated quote. About 6.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.71×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.25×

- FY2017: 0.35×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.49×

- FY2020: 0.58×

- FY2021: 0.66×

- FY2022: 0.62×

- FY2023: -0.35×

- FY2024: 0.65×

- FY2025: 0.71×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 61.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 68.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 55.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.9%

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 2.9%

- FY2019: 6.9%

- FY2020: 11.6%

- FY2021: 13.4%

- FY2022: 13.2%

- FY2023: -7.8%

- FY2024: 11.6%

- FY2025: 14.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.89×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 22.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.21×

- FY2023: 1.53×

- FY2024: 0.67×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.9% vs 11.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.70 to 2.87 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: $29B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 19.3%

- Per-share value change: $2.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.70

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.87

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $125M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.70

- FY2017: $1.05

- FY2018: $0.75

- FY2019: $1.82

- FY2020: $1.71

- FY2021: $3.83

- FY2022: $3.65

- FY2023: -$2.43

- FY2024: $2.87

- FY2025: $5.87

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.3%

- FY2017: -6.1%

- FY2018: -6.8%

- FY2019: -5.2%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: -3.6%

- FY2022: -4.5%

- FY2023: -24.3%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -4.7%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.1% a year for ten years · "FNV Set to Gain From Cobre Panama Stockpile Processing Approval" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +66.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.585Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-12: High Gold Prices Fueled Franco-Nevada’s Record-Breaking Quarter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-gold-prices-fueled-franco-123000982.html))

- 2026-01-22: CIBC Says Franco-Nevada Confident the Cobre Panama Project Will Reopen ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cibc-says-franco-nevada-confident-170008316.html))

- 2026-05-13: FNV Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Revenues, Higher Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fnv-q1-earnings-beat-estimates-144800444.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +66.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1456346/000110465926032133/fnv-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-03-19.

- FY2016: $610M 

- FY2017: $675M 

- FY2018: $653M 

- FY2019: $844M 

- FY2020: $1.0B 

- FY2021: $1.3B 

- FY2022: $1.3B 

- FY2023: $1.2B 

- FY2024: $1.1B 

- FY2025: $1.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 73.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1456346/000110465926032133/fnv-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-03-19.

- FY2016: 37.8% 

- FY2017: 38.5% 

- FY2018: 44.0% 

- FY2019: 51.7% 

- FY2020: 60.8% 

- FY2021: 63.2% 

- FY2022: 64.8% 

- FY2023: 62.9% 

- FY2024: 68.2% 

- FY2025: 73.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are USD 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1456346/000110465926032133/fnv-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-03-19); FY2025: revenue 1853284578; grossProfit 1369460697; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 62.9% to 73.9% during 2023–25; it earns 9.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 62.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 68.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1456346/000110465926032133/fnv-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-03-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 73.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.02904901061029848],[2017,0.046301020408163265],[2018,0.02909545091108324],[2019,0.06937285429524898],[2020,0.11585035811839935],[2021,0.13404616841616918],[2022,0.1319423400773878],[2023,-0.07767747141172524],[2024,0.11553513542068101],[2025,0.14853279413500156]]; median 0.09245399485796499. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 65% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1456346/000110465926032133/fnv-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-03-19); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6323846153846154],[2022,0.6480200653644448],[2023,0.6288761279737489]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 22% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2016: growth capex 473300000; upkeep 273800000; owner earnings 122200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.8731587561374794.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2017: growth capex 228200000; upkeep 273000000; owner earnings 194700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1720595788392398.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2019: growth capex 182000000; upkeep 263200000; owner earnings 343580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5297165143489144.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2020: growth capex 71600000; upkeep 241000000; owner earnings 326200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21949724095646841.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2021: growth capex 460900000; upkeep 299600000; owner earnings 733700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6281859070464768.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 141500000; owner earnings 845300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 408000000; owner earnings 369400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1456346/000110465926032133/fnv-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-03-19); FY2025: growth capex 1923085456; upkeep 312068947; owner earnings 1131567903. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.699487455327725.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); Incremental return on capital 0.22021079274745178, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,118100000],[2017,125800000],[2018,136100000],[2019,138200000],[2020,154900000],[2021,179600000],[2022,197600000],[2023,233000000],[2024,242400000],[2025,279915771]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FNV.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.615 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.19073070761623334. Price 341.8; FX 1.4190435646374344; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -4.915327857508 → FY2025 5.869167701856911. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 87.79 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 78.03 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 80.28 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 84.64 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 85.61 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 87.12 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 92.84 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 100.87 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 93.57 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 90.33 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 102.16 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 96.66 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 102.52 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 105.11 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 100.46 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 94.05 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 89.92 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 87.90 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 91.07 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 91.43 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 95.95 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 95.42 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 83.42 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 80.80 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 82.22 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 92.00 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 95.73 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 101.93 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 99.14 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 100.19 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 95.99 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 104.36 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 111.15 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 114.70 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 130.06 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 120.72 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 127.80 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 130.67 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 134.09 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 150.43 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 144.10 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 140.61 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 184.16 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 193.26 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 189.65 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 214.10 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 196.17 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 186.07 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 181.59 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 172.87 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 159.60 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 152.33 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 136.26 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 157.49 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 171.23 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 178.40 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 179.89 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 199.55 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 184.05 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 164.55 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 176.59 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 175.18 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 174.94 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 168.07 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 186.66 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 198.94 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 194.28 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 178.93 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 169.32 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 163.97 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 157.90 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 165.00 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 168.33 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 196.49 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 184.57 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 195.17 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 174.17 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 197.13 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 205.58 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 197.28 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 188.81 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 192.42 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 194.66 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 181.33 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 168.70 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 151.98 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 146.77 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 145.46 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 142.09 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 161.40 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 165.72 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 167.69 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 162.20 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 177.92 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 164.56 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 167.98 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 184.82 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 171.44 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 168.92 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 197.57 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 206.51 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 226.33 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 236.91 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 231.17 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 223.57 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 220.72 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 258.83 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 309.77 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 261.99 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 292.15 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 284.51 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 318.74 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 381.24 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 344.45 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 313.38 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 319.36 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 295.93 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 298.24 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 364.59 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 338.80 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 346.53 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2019: low CAD 18.10 per share, central CAD 25.49 per share, high CAD 29.79 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 31.52 per share, central CAD 40.53 per share, high CAD 46.79 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 45.26 per share, central CAD 62.37 per share, high CAD 72.57 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 62.50 per share, central CAD 85.58 per share, high CAD 99.02 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 50.37 per share, central CAD 55.89 per share, high CAD 63.24 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 40.30 per share, central CAD 44.40 per share, high CAD 49.87 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 109.32 per share, central CAD 154.17 per share, high CAD 180.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:43.801Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1456346/000110465926032133/fnv-20251231x40f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.