# Fortum Oyj (FORTUM.HE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FORTUM.HE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:36.663Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 23.07 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 8.81 per share, central EUR 9.72 per share, high EUR 10.93 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 9.72 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:36.663Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.5% at the stated quote. About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FI 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.43×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.26×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.36×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.25×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 15.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 15.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 43.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.1%

- FY2017: 6.8%

- FY2018: 5.6%

- FY2019: 9.7%

- FY2020: 11.8%

- FY2021: 23.7%

- FY2022: 16.6%

- FY2023: 15.7%

- FY2024: 11.5%

- FY2025: 7.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.22×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR -170M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 757M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 43.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 2.89×

- FY2022: 0.86×

- FY2023: 1.12×

- FY2024: 0.90×

- FY2025: 0.72×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.6% vs 11.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.97 to 0.85 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Market cap gain: EUR 3.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR -4.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -1.7%

- Per-share value change: EUR -0.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.85

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 2.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 6.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 0.56

- FY2017: EUR 0.97

- FY2018: EUR 0.97

- FY2019: EUR 1.67

- FY2020: EUR 2.07

- FY2021: EUR -0.13

- FY2022: EUR 1.14

- FY2023: EUR -2.31

- FY2024: EUR 1.30

- FY2025: EUR 0.85

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.30×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.10×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.6%

- FY2017: -0.6%

- FY2018: 0.2%

- FY2019: -2.3%

- FY2020: -1.3%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: 41.4%

- FY2023: -20.7%

- FY2024: -1.3%

- FY2025: -0.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.8% a year for ten years · sales +10%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.568Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi/reports/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi.xhtml; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2017: EUR 4.5B 

- FY2018: EUR 5.2B 

- FY2019: EUR 5.4B 

- FY2020: EUR 49B 

- FY2021: EUR 112B 

- FY2022: EUR 8.8B 

- FY2023: EUR 6.7B 

- FY2024: EUR 5.8B 

- FY2025: EUR 5.0B 

- FY2026: EUR 5.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 27.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi/reports/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi.xhtml; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 47.0% 

- FY2017: 46.3% 

- FY2018: 44.2% 

- FY2019: 47.6% 

- FY2020: 9.6% 

- FY2021: 6.4% 

- FY2022: 37.8% 

- FY2023: 43.3% 

- FY2024: 43.2% 

- FY2025: 27.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities renewable; annual sales are EUR 5 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi/reports/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 4989000000; grossProfit 1366000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FORTUM.HE: Fortum Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and sale of electricity and heat to private and business customers in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and internationally. It operates through Generation, Consumer Solutions, and Other Operations segments. The Generation segment offers low-carbon hydro, nuclear, onshore wind, and solar power generation; district heating and cooling; and decarbonization services. The Consumer Solutions segment offers invoicing and customer services; electricity and related value-added products; and digital services for consumers, including small- and medium-sized enterprises. It is also involved in the electricity and gas retail business; power trading and energy supply services; industrial site development; and battery recycling activities. The company was formerly known as IVO-Neste Yhtymä Oyj and changed its name to Fortum Oyj in June 1998. The company has strategic partnership with Google for nuclear power purchase agreement. Fortum Oyj was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.4% to 43.3% during 2023–25; it earns 10.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.2%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi/reports/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 27.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04114352127740359],[2017,0.06847764106019541],[2018,0.05607924531765591],[2019,0.09737903861308117],[2020,0.1182883640091628],[2021,0.23694666795255087],[2022,0.1657659254009037],[2023,0.15653395103173537],[2024,0.11490867974711716],[2025,0.07438097094950283]]; median 0.10614385918009916. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 191000000; upkeep 408000000; owner earnings 496000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3850806451612903.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 154000000; upkeep 503000000; owner earnings 866000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17782909930715934.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 43000000; upkeep 536000000; owner earnings 843000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.051008303677342826.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 120000000; upkeep 575000000; owner earnings 1460400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08216926869350863.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 11000000; upkeep 1090000000; owner earnings 1612000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.006823821339950372.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 534000000; owner earnings 868200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 472000000; owner earnings 1052200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi/reports/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 499000000; owner earnings 548000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,977000000],[2017,977000000],[2018,977000000],[2019,977000000],[2020,977000000],[2021,995000000],[2022,1013000000],[2023,817000000],[2024,1032000000],[2025,1256000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 52.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FORTUM.HE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 52.949999999999996 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 18%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18650628664826707. Price 23.07; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.454240195774944 → FY2025 0.6107455553772357. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 15.19 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 13.70 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 14.57 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 14.79 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 14.49 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 14.83 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 13.36 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 14.18 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 13.73 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 13.82 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 15.08 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 16.89 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 18.23 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 17.68 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 16.50 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 17.47 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 18.05 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 17.45 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 19.11 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 20.11 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 20.44 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 21.48 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 21.80 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 21.59 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 18.60 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 18.41 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 19.10 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 19.82 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 19.52 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 18.23 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 18.84 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 19.13 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 19.44 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 20.80 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 20.01 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 21.69 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 21.89 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 21.39 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 22.00 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 21.86 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 19.28 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 13.38 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 15.15 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 17.22 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 16.91 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 17.22 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 17.72 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 17.28 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 16.15 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 19.21 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 19.70 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 19.99 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 20.69 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 22.76 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 21.85 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 23.31 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 23.26 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 23.24 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 25.72 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 26.29 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 25.70 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 25.41 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 26.99 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 24.05 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 18.84 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 16.53 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 15.90 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 17.20 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 14.32 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 10.92 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 10.25 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 13.77 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 14.25 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 15.22 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 15.54 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 13.82 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 14.46 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 14.12 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 13.53 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 12.43 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 12.27 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 12.31 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 12.40 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 11.00 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 11.20 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 12.89 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 13.06 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 12.69 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 11.55 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 11.45 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 12.38 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 14.02 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 13.65 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 14.19 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 14.46 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 14.80 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 13.53 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 14.27 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 13.52 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 14.00 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 15.10 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 15.11 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 14.75 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 15.20 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 15.89 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 16.09 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 14.79 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 16.11 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 19.34 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 17.70 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 18.18 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 19.92 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 19.81 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 21.88 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 21.44 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 20.05 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 20.29 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 19.73 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 20.72 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 23.71 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 23.53 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 11.82 per share, central EUR 12.66 per share, high EUR 13.78 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 14.94 per share, central EUR 16.41 per share, high EUR 18.36 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 13.13 per share, central EUR 14.86 per share, high EUR 17.17 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 14.30 per share, central EUR 16.07 per share, high EUR 18.42 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 105.47 per share, central EUR 127.73 per share, high EUR 148.60 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 285.56 per share, central EUR 405.33 per share, high EUR 475.07 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 15.05 per share, central EUR 16.74 per share, high EUR 18.77 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 7.20 per share, central EUR 7.57 per share, high EUR 8.07 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 6.80 per share, central EUR 7.12 per share, high EUR 7.55 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 9.12 per share, central EUR 9.94 per share, high EUR 11.04 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:21.190Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi/reports/635400IUIZZIUJSAMF76-2025-12-31-fi.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.