# Shift4 Payments (FOUR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FOUR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:37.049Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $39.34 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $45.42 per share, central $51.22 per share, high $58.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value $51.22 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:37.049Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.4% at the stated quote. About 12.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 3.89×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -0.02×

- FY2019: -0.01×

- FY2020: -0.08×

- FY2021: -0.04×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -14.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 29.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -5.2%

- FY2019: -1.9%

- FY2020: -74.5%

- FY2021: -14.7%

- FY2022: 15.7%

- FY2023: 10.6%

- FY2024: 19.1%

- FY2025: 11.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.54×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $710M

- Net income, five-year total: $461M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.61×

- FY2022: -1.28×

- FY2023: 1.89×

- FY2024: 1.36×

- FY2025: 3.02×

### management: pass

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -5.2% vs 11.1%

- Per-share earnings: -1.42 to 1.77 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 9.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 9.7%

- Per-share value change: $3.18

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.77

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.71

- Average buyback yield: 3.3%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: -5.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -$1.42

- FY2019: -$1.45

- FY2020: -$0.43

- FY2021: -$0.88

- FY2022: $0.90

- FY2023: $1.46

- FY2024: $2.56

- FY2025: $1.77

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -5.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.70×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 12.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.33×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 3.90×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -11.0%

- FY2019: -10.6%

- FY2020: -2.3%

- FY2021: -3.3%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -8.9%

- FY2024: -5.4%

- FY2025: -5.9%

## Holders

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 67% since Jan 2025 · "Shift4 Payments Shares Fall Following 2026 Guidance Cut" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +25.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:46.943Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: Shift4 beats Q1 estimates, incoming CEO talks revenue growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/shift4-beats-q1-estimates-incoming-202854217.html))

- 2025-08-05: Shift4 Payments misses Q2 earnings estimates, shares tumble ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shift4-payments-misses-q2-earnings-114602605.html))

- 2025-10-03: Shift4 Payments Sees Estimate Cuts on Global Blue, Acquisitions, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shift4-payments-sees-estimate-cuts-145330842.html))

- 2025-11-06: Shift4 Payments stock gaps up on above-consensus Q3 payment volume, $1B buyback ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4517314-shift4-payments-stock-gaps-up-on-above-consensus-q3-payment-volume-1b-buyback?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-27: Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Falls to 2-Year Low as Profits Plunge 65% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shift4-payments-four-falls-2-111341290.html))

- 2026-08-06: Shift4 Payments Shares Fall Following 2026 Guidance Cut ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/shift4-payments-shares-fall-following-134224771.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +25.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/58592/000114036115013663/form10k.htm; observed 2015-03-31.

- FY2018: $561M 

- FY2019: $731M 

- FY2020: $767M 

- FY2021: $1.4B 

- FY2022: $2.0B 

- FY2023: $2.6B 

- FY2024: $3.3B 

- FY2025: $4.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 34.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/58592/000114036115013663/form10k.htm; observed 2015-03-31.

- FY2018: 25.1% 

- FY2019: 23.7% 

- FY2020: 23.2% 

- FY2021: 20.4% 

- FY2022: 23.6% 

- FY2023: 26.8% 

- FY2024: 29.2% 

- FY2025: 34.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software infrastructure; annual sales are USD 4.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2025: revenue 4180000000; grossProfit 1428000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 26.8% to 34.2% during 2023–25; it earns 4.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 34.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,-0.052188603126575896],[2019,-0.018638069705093834],[2020,-0.7447463175122749],[2021,-0.14678247734138972],[2022,0.15718191371055634],[2023,0.10640467142459913],[2024,0.19122892983143866],[2025,0.11071129707112971]]; median 0.043883300859752644. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 8 years; bought back USD 487 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 9300000; owner earnings 6100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 32900000; owner earnings 32900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 137600000; owner earnings 163200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 189700000; owner earnings 312942071.3073005. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 135000000; owner earnings 359428571.42857146. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2018,200000],[2019,200000],[2020,500000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,30000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); FY2025: cash repurchases 487000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 30.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FOUR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 30.485 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2015-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0505284663044428. Price 39.34; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-06: $35.50 per share

- 2020-07: $38.30 per share

- 2020-08: $50.37 per share

- 2020-09: $48.36 per share

- 2020-10: $50.91 per share

- 2020-11: $61.63 per share

- 2020-12: $75.40 per share

- 2021-01: $65.01 per share

- 2021-02: $76.50 per share

- 2021-03: $82.01 per share

- 2021-04: $98.89 per share

- 2021-05: $93.29 per share

- 2021-06: $93.72 per share

- 2021-07: $89.19 per share

- 2021-08: $85.71 per share

- 2021-09: $77.52 per share

- 2021-10: $63.13 per share

- 2021-11: $52.02 per share

- 2021-12: $57.93 per share

- 2022-01: $52.72 per share

- 2022-02: $52.65 per share

- 2022-03: $61.93 per share

- 2022-04: $52.46 per share

- 2022-05: $45.65 per share

- 2022-06: $33.06 per share

- 2022-07: $36.43 per share

- 2022-08: $45.29 per share

- 2022-09: $44.61 per share

- 2022-10: $45.97 per share

- 2022-11: $46.34 per share

- 2022-12: $55.93 per share

- 2023-01: $64.04 per share

- 2023-02: $64.50 per share

- 2023-03: $75.80 per share

- 2023-04: $67.77 per share

- 2023-05: $62.72 per share

- 2023-06: $67.91 per share

- 2023-07: $68.99 per share

- 2023-08: $56.79 per share

- 2023-09: $55.37 per share

- 2023-10: $44.52 per share

- 2023-11: $65.82 per share

- 2023-12: $74.34 per share

- 2024-01: $71.81 per share

- 2024-02: $82.22 per share

- 2024-03: $66.07 per share

- 2024-04: $57.86 per share

- 2024-05: $67.28 per share

- 2024-06: $73.35 per share

- 2024-07: $68.79 per share

- 2024-08: $83.10 per share

- 2024-09: $88.60 per share

- 2024-10: $90.44 per share

- 2024-11: $114.08 per share

- 2024-12: $103.78 per share

- 2025-01: $119.85 per share

- 2025-02: $98.75 per share

- 2025-03: $81.71 per share

- 2025-04: $81.80 per share

- 2025-05: $94.79 per share

- 2025-06: $99.11 per share

- 2025-07: $103.00 per share

- 2025-08: $90.43 per share

- 2025-09: $77.40 per share

- 2025-10: $69.10 per share

- 2025-11: $73.78 per share

- 2025-12: $62.97 per share

- 2026-01: $59.04 per share

- 2026-02: $44.07 per share

- 2026-03: $43.73 per share

- 2026-04: $44.28 per share

- 2026-05: $44.56 per share

- 2026-06: $48.64 per share

- 2026-07: $53.00 per share

- 2026-08: $42.28 per share

- 2026-09: $36.17 per share

- 2026-10: $39.34 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2024: low $27.32 per share, central $29.71 per share, high $32.90 per share

- FY2025: low $53.69 per share, central $59.64 per share, high $67.56 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/58592/000114036115013663/form10k.htm); period 2014-12-31, filed 2015-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.