# Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FPH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:37.479Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $4.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $5.05 per share, central $5.49 per share, high $6.08 per share. Buy at or below the central value $5.49 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:37.479Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.1% at the stated quote. About 13.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.44×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.62×

- FY2017: -0.64×

- FY2018: -1.61×

- FY2019: -0.27×

- FY2020: -0.27×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: -0.92×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.28×

- FY2025: -0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -1.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 40.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -3.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.0%

- FY2017: -5.5%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -2.1%

- FY2020: -0.9%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: 2.6%

- FY2024: 6.4%

- FY2025: -0.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.15×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $29M

- Net income, five-year total: $186M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -0.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -43.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1049.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1436.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -6.72×

- FY2022: 12.63×

- FY2023: 2.72×

- FY2024: 0.62×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -5.0% vs 2.6%

- Per-share earnings: -0.07 to 0.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 15.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 17.6%

- Market cap gain: -$48M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $170M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 15.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 17.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.54

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.46

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.86

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $206M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $200M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -5.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.86

- FY2017: $1.16

- FY2018: -$0.52

- FY2019: $0.06

- FY2020: -$0.01

- FY2021: $0.10

- FY2022: -$0.11

- FY2023: $0.38

- FY2024: $0.46

- FY2025: $0.47

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -1.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.88×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.48×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.3%

- FY2017: 4.4%

- FY2018: 10.6%

- FY2019: 8.0%

- FY2020: 2.6%

- FY2021: 3.0%

- FY2022: 6.0%

- FY2023: -3.3%

- FY2024: -1.6%

- FY2025: -1.1%

## Holders

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 40% since Oct 2021 · sales -53.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:46.996Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.5% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-24: Five Point reaffirms ~$100M 2026 net income outlook while authorizing $40M share repurchase ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579154-five-point-reaffirms-100m-2026-net-income-outlook-while-authorizing-40m-share-repurchase?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -53.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1574197/000157419726000005/fph-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-06.

- FY2016: $39M 

- FY2017: $139M 

- FY2018: $49M 

- FY2019: $184M 

- FY2020: $154M 

- FY2021: $224M 

- FY2022: $43M 

- FY2023: $212M 

- FY2024: $238M 

- FY2025: $110M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 40.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1574197/000157419726000005/fph-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-06.

- FY2016: 44.5% 

- FY2017: 23.3% 

- FY2018: 41.1% 

- FY2019: 28.9% 

- FY2020: 27.5% 

- FY2021: 35.7% 

- FY2022: 35.6% 

- FY2023: 36.7% 

- FY2024: 49.9% 

- FY2025: 40.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate development; annual sales are USD 110 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1574197/000157419726000005/fph-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-06); FY2025: revenue 110020000; grossProfit 44474000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); FPH.US: Five Point Holdings, LLC designs, develops, and owns mixed-use planned communities in California, the United States. It operates through Valencia, San Francisco, Great Park, and Hearthstone segments. The company sells residential and commercial land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers. It also provides development management services; and asset management services to land banking funds that are primarily focused on acquiring, developing, and managing residential lot option programs. The company was formerly known as Newhall Holding Company, LLC and changed its name to Five Point Holdings, LLC in May 2016. Five Point Holdings, LLC was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.7% to 49.9% during 2023–25; it lost 1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-06); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-06); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 49.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1574197/000157419726000005/fph-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-06); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-06); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.05036671883344212],[2017,-0.055473995038785376],[2018,-0.030958679147873883],[2019,-0.020826539078364653],[2020,-0.009053522961158585],[2021,0.001102880225792234],[2022,-0.01008822182381862],[2023,0.025760017483773857],[2024,0.06377638008223034],[2025,-0.007378502739137295]]; median -0.009570872392488602. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 36% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1574197/000157419726000005/fph-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-06); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.35696587252778594],[2022,0.3559985009603223],[2023,0.36718115353371245]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-06); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 23000; owner earnings 150435000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-06); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 808000; owner earnings 42630932.496031165. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1574197/000157419726000005/fph-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-06); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 217000; owner earnings 74267337.67040439. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-06); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,4099000],[2020,4568000],[2021,4429000],[2022,435000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); FPH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.018 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-06); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06207612548696445. Price 4.42; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.10126133012995522 → FY2025 0.4941046463629041. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2017-05: $15.61 per share

- 2017-06: $14.76 per share

- 2017-07: $14.90 per share

- 2017-08: $14.15 per share

- 2017-09: $13.64 per share

- 2017-10: $12.85 per share

- 2017-11: $14.00 per share

- 2017-12: $14.10 per share

- 2018-01: $13.80 per share

- 2018-02: $13.51 per share

- 2018-03: $14.26 per share

- 2018-04: $13.30 per share

- 2018-05: $11.16 per share

- 2018-06: $11.25 per share

- 2018-07: $11.19 per share

- 2018-08: $10.94 per share

- 2018-09: $9.41 per share

- 2018-10: $7.60 per share

- 2018-11: $7.67 per share

- 2018-12: $6.94 per share

- 2019-01: $7.67 per share

- 2019-02: $7.83 per share

- 2019-03: $7.21 per share

- 2019-04: $8.51 per share

- 2019-05: $7.76 per share

- 2019-06: $7.52 per share

- 2019-07: $7.81 per share

- 2019-08: $7.02 per share

- 2019-09: $7.50 per share

- 2019-10: $6.61 per share

- 2019-11: $7.03 per share

- 2019-12: $6.95 per share

- 2020-01: $8.11 per share

- 2020-02: $7.49 per share

- 2020-03: $5.07 per share

- 2020-04: $5.64 per share

- 2020-05: $5.01 per share

- 2020-06: $4.60 per share

- 2020-07: $4.80 per share

- 2020-08: $5.20 per share

- 2020-09: $4.17 per share

- 2020-10: $4.19 per share

- 2020-11: $5.64 per share

- 2020-12: $5.46 per share

- 2021-01: $6.30 per share

- 2021-02: $6.56 per share

- 2021-03: $7.56 per share

- 2021-04: $7.18 per share

- 2021-05: $8.02 per share

- 2021-06: $8.08 per share

- 2021-07: $8.37 per share

- 2021-08: $7.99 per share

- 2021-09: $7.83 per share

- 2021-10: $7.36 per share

- 2021-11: $5.39 per share

- 2021-12: $6.54 per share

- 2022-01: $5.79 per share

- 2022-02: $5.92 per share

- 2022-03: $6.11 per share

- 2022-04: $5.85 per share

- 2022-05: $4.86 per share

- 2022-06: $3.91 per share

- 2022-07: $4.22 per share

- 2022-08: $3.65 per share

- 2022-09: $2.60 per share

- 2022-10: $2.28 per share

- 2022-11: $2.16 per share

- 2022-12: $2.33 per share

- 2023-01: $2.58 per share

- 2023-02: $2.19 per share

- 2023-03: $2.36 per share

- 2023-04: $2.45 per share

- 2023-05: $2.33 per share

- 2023-06: $2.89 per share

- 2023-07: $3.45 per share

- 2023-08: $3.05 per share

- 2023-09: $2.97 per share

- 2023-10: $2.43 per share

- 2023-11: $2.55 per share

- 2023-12: $3.07 per share

- 2024-01: $3.49 per share

- 2024-02: $3.27 per share

- 2024-03: $3.13 per share

- 2024-04: $2.84 per share

- 2024-05: $3.26 per share

- 2024-06: $2.93 per share

- 2024-07: $3.35 per share

- 2024-08: $3.29 per share

- 2024-09: $4.15 per share

- 2024-10: $4.02 per share

- 2024-11: $4.06 per share

- 2024-12: $3.78 per share

- 2025-01: $6.57 per share

- 2025-02: $5.61 per share

- 2025-03: $5.34 per share

- 2025-04: $5.26 per share

- 2025-05: $5.45 per share

- 2025-06: $5.50 per share

- 2025-07: $5.33 per share

- 2025-08: $5.68 per share

- 2025-09: $6.13 per share

- 2025-10: $5.85 per share

- 2025-11: $6.20 per share

- 2025-12: $5.59 per share

- 2026-01: $5.31 per share

- 2026-02: $5.52 per share

- 2026-03: $4.84 per share

- 2026-04: $4.98 per share

- 2026-05: $5.03 per share

- 2026-06: $5.27 per share

- 2026-07: $5.19 per share

- 2026-08: $5.08 per share

- 2026-09: $4.68 per share

- 2026-10: $4.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $16.99 per share, central $18.24 per share, high $19.90 per share

- FY2025: low $2.53 per share, central $2.72 per share, high $2.99 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1574197/000157419726000005/fph-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-06.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.