# Valeo (FR.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FR.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 13.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 29.56 per share, central EUR 32.10 per share, high EUR 35.49 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 32.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 65.1% at the stated quote. About 65.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.75×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 25.6%

- FY2017: 27.6%

- FY2018: 17.0%

- FY2019: 10.7%

- FY2020: -11.0%

- FY2021: 7.2%

- FY2022: 6.9%

- FY2023: 11.4%

- FY2024: 13.7%

- FY2025: 12.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.28×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 1.3B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 988M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.93×

- FY2022: 1.92×

- FY2023: 0.61×

- FY2024: -0.54×

- FY2025: 2.18×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 25.6% vs 12.6%

- Per-share earnings: 3.64 to 0.81 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Market cap gain: EUR -10B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR -28M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -17.1%

- Per-share value change: EUR -2.82

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 3.64

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.81

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 8.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 2.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 25.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 3.85

- FY2017: EUR 3.64

- FY2018: EUR 2.28

- FY2019: EUR 1.30

- FY2020: EUR -4.53

- FY2021: EUR 0.71

- FY2022: EUR 0.95

- FY2023: EUR 0.89

- FY2024: EUR 0.66

- FY2025: EUR 0.81

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 11.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.87×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.7%

- FY2017: -6.6%

- FY2018: -8.8%

- FY2019: -11.4%

- FY2020: -15.5%

- FY2021: -7.7%

- FY2022: -7.6%

- FY2023: -10.3%

- FY2024: -11.7%

- FY2025: -10.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 48% since Dec 2021 · "Valeo shares slump as car parts supplier cuts sales forecast" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales -2.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.985Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 27.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-25: Valeo shares slump as car parts supplier cuts sales forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/valeo-shares-slump-car-parts-101459702.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 17B 

- FY2017: EUR 18B 

- FY2018: EUR 19B 

- FY2019: EUR 19B 

- FY2020: EUR 16B 

- FY2021: EUR 17B 

- FY2022: EUR 20B 

- FY2023: EUR 22B 

- FY2024: EUR 21B 

- FY2025: EUR 21B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 16.1% 

- FY2017: 18.6% 

- FY2018: 16.7% 

- FY2019: 14.5% 

- FY2020: 9.1% 

- FY2021: 13.2% 

- FY2022: 13.1% 

- FY2023: 14.2% 

- FY2024: 14.5% 

- FY2025: 15.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are EUR 20.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2025: revenue 20903000000; grossProfit 3129000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.2% to 15% during 2023–25; it earns 12% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 14.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.25570851843718856],[2017,0.27553454035388786],[2018,0.16991384612886135],[2019,0.10746400961448309],[2020,-0.11002668089647812],[2021,0.07231884057971015],[2022,0.06851351351351351],[2023,0.11416761711822332],[2024,0.13672061330734522],[2025,0.12612612612612611]]; median 0.12014687162217472. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 13% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.13237168346657396],[2022,0.13050855916554374],[2023,0.14185265831972418]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 25 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2016: growth capex 4000000; upkeep 840000000; owner earnings 925000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004324324324324324.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2017: growth capex 207000000; upkeep 951000000; owner earnings 877000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23603192702394526.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2018: growth capex 132391376.5556755; upkeep 1158608623.4443245; owner earnings 530391376.5556755. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2496107259801542.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1350000000; owner earnings 337000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1489000000; owner earnings 442223728.8135593. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2023: growth capex 166000000; upkeep 1835000000; owner earnings 135399333.3333333. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2260030822406809.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1761000000; owner earnings 435764705.88235295. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,236000000],[2017,297000000],[2018,296000000],[2019,297000000],[2020,48000000],[2021,72000000],[2022,84000000],[2023,92000000],[2024,97000000],[2025,103000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 25000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 15% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FR.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 14.985000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 27.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 5.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:28.287Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.38470427817665576. Price 13.695; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.2127339572192515 → FY2025 1.7743801825110976. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 52.50 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 52.61 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 54.61 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 56.52 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 58.01 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 62.43 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 66.00 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 61.97 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 58.99 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 58.54 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 56.18 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 62.78 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 58.10 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 60.99 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 62.27 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 63.50 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 53.46 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 53.64 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 55.44 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 54.32 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 46.82 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 42.00 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 39.11 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 37.40 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 28.55 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 25.20 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 25.51 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 27.27 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 27.75 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 25.85 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 32.37 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 23.68 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 28.60 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 28.40 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 24.84 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 29.75 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 33.34 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 35.76 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 31.41 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 26.92 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 22.78 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 15.25 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 21.17 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 22.15 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 23.36 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 21.74 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 25.60 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 26.25 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 25.97 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 32.52 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 32.28 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 30.84 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 29.24 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 28.97 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 26.94 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 26.75 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 25.37 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 24.38 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 24.08 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 24.25 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 25.33 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 25.54 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 26.58 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 24.62 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 19.79 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 16.76 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 17.51 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 20.65 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 18.43 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 20.89 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 19.14 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 15.63 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 16.69 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 17.75 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 16.70 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 19.99 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 19.74 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 18.91 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 17.67 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 17.96 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 19.63 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 20.55 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 18.00 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 16.33 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 12.44 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 13.28 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 13.92 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 12.17 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 10.71 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 11.59 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 11.94 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 11.29 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 9.94 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 10.59 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 9.67 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 10.82 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 8.90 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 7.85 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 9.31 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 10.83 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 10.02 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 8.58 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 8.67 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 9.26 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 9.29 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 9.61 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 10.36 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 10.64 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 11.99 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 10.89 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 11.64 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 11.82 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 12.29 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 10.33 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 10.67 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 13.27 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 12.82 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 14.88 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 14.39 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 14.53 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 13.64 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 42.96 per share, central EUR 47.72 per share, high EUR 54.05 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 54.27 per share, central EUR 68.58 per share, high EUR 78.76 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 57.36 per share, central EUR 74.83 per share, high EUR 86.26 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 53.02 per share, central EUR 66.44 per share, high EUR 76.67 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 32.06 per share, central EUR 34.92 per share, high EUR 38.73 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 23.74 per share, central EUR 25.81 per share, high EUR 28.57 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 27.26 per share, central EUR 29.68 per share, high EUR 32.91 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 13.98 per share, central EUR 14.81 per share, high EUR 15.90 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 13.88 per share, central EUR 15.07 per share, high EUR 16.28 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 25.03 per share, central EUR 27.53 per share, high EUR 30.86 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:13.399Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.