# Fresnillo (FRES.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FRES.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:26.932Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 2,669.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 984.92 per share, central GBX 1,290.19 per share, high GBX 1,467.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,290.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:26.932Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.52×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.36×

- FY2017: 0.34×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.27×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.49×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 22.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.1%

- FY2017: 18.3%

- FY2018: 11.1%

- FY2019: 4.7%

- FY2020: 12.2%

- FY2021: 13.1%

- FY2022: 7.1%

- FY2023: 3.4%

- FY2024: 18.0%

- FY2025: 62.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.11×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 148.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: 0.66×

- FY2023: 1.05×

- FY2024: 2.76×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.1% vs 18.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.58 to 0.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: $21B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.2%

- Per-share value change: -$0.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.32

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $370M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.58

- FY2017: $0.76

- FY2018: $0.47

- FY2019: $0.28

- FY2020: $0.51

- FY2021: $0.57

- FY2022: $0.37

- FY2023: $0.32

- FY2024: $0.19

- FY2025: $1.92

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.69×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.0%

- FY2017: -4.2%

- FY2018: -5.0%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -9.6%

- FY2021: -8.2%

- FY2022: -3.9%

- FY2023: -3.3%

- FY2024: -19.7%

- FY2025: -13.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 37% since Feb 2026 · "Fresnillo Production Cut Triggers Fresh Look At Valuation And Guidance" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +31.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.628Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 17.4% a year for ten years

- 2026-02-02: Fresnillo Production Cut Triggers Fresh Look At Valuation And Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fresnillo-production-cut-triggers-fresh-042518198.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +31.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31/reports/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-21.

- FY2016: $1.9B 

- FY2017: $2.1B 

- FY2018: $2.1B 

- FY2019: $2.1B 

- FY2020: $2.4B 

- FY2021: $2.7B 

- FY2022: $2.4B 

- FY2023: $2.7B 

- FY2024: $3.5B 

- FY2025: $4.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 53.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31/reports/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-21.

- FY2016: 46.3% 

- FY2017: 44.2% 

- FY2018: 37.1% 

- FY2019: 21.8% 

- FY2020: 36.2% 

- FY2021: 34.7% 

- FY2022: 22.0% 

- FY2023: 18.6% 

- FY2024: 35.4% 

- FY2025: 53.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other precious metals & mining; annual sales are USD 4.6 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31/reports/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: revenue 4607631022; grossProfit 2469347047; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FRES.LSE: Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates. Its projects include the Fresnillo silver mine located in the state of Zacatecas; Saucito mine situated in the state of Zacatecas; Ciénega mine located in the state of Durango; Herradura mine located in the state of Sonora; Noche Buena mine located in the state of Sonora; San Julián mine situated on the border of Chihuahua/Durango states; and Juanicipio mine located in the state of Zacatecas. The company also leases mining equipment; produces lead, silver and zinc concentrates and silver precipitates; produces gold/silver doré bars; mines projects; and provides exploration and administrative services. Fresnillo plc was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Fresnillo plc is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.6% to 53.6% during 2023–25; it earns 12.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.4%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31/reports/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 53.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17133490940632679],[2017,0.1828228579460284],[2018,0.11142333818713082],[2019,0.047414772546866026],[2020,0.1215222647513054],[2021,0.13065328181390706],[2022,0.07098131588491433],[2023,0.034039028967394004],[2024,0.18023647162985418],[2025,0.6293990379501435]]; median 0.12608777328260623. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Cost inflation The Mexican Consumer Price Index for 2025 calculated cost inflation at 3.9%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31/reports/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); MX$/US$ exchange rate Spot Exchange Rate at 31 December 2025 Spot Exchange Rate at 31 December 2024 Impact $18.00 per US dollar $20.27 per US dollar The 11.4% spot revaluation had a favourable effect on deferred taxes and special mining rights Average Mexican peso/US dollar exchange rate 2025 Average Mexican peso/US dollar exchange rate 2024 Impact $19.22 per US dollar $18.30 per US dollar The 5.1% devaluation had a positive effect of US$51.6 million on the Group’s costs denominated in Mexican pesos (approximately 45% of total costs) when converted to US dollars. Cost inflation The Mexican Consumer Price Index for 2025 calculated cost inflation at 3.9%. However, to evaluate the Group’s cost inflation for the year, we calculate the unit price increase for each component of adjusted production costs and take into consideration their weighted average within the Group’s basket.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2016: growth capex 87548000; upkeep 346502000; owner earnings 426986000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.205037167494953.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2017: growth capex 237142000; upkeep 367609000; owner earnings 560578000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.42303122848203106.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2018: growth capex 13552485.94034934; upkeep 655116514.0596507; owner earnings 106493485.94034934. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1272611730255553.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2019: growth capex 20301853.2883054; upkeep 538962146.7116946; owner earnings 153204053.2883054. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13251511857914475.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 412326000; owner earnings 475158000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2021: growth capex 62662000; upkeep 529390000; owner earnings 419043600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14953575236562497.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 592129000; owner earnings 178511200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 483409000; owner earnings 246051000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 370542000; owner earnings 388866400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31/reports/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 408536074; owner earnings 1527410023. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); Dividend observations: [[2016,88219000],[2017,236560000],[2018,298068000],[2019,142179000],[2020,104686000],[2021,245561000],[2022,201950000],[2023,108351000],[2024,78111000],[2025,668040685]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 75% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FRES.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 74.994 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 17.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23991713994638764. Price 2669; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.05534711596695243 → FY2025 2.0728266919808433. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 1,640.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 1,200.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,221.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,453.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,486.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,556.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,452.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,576.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,486.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,536.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,616.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,405.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,302.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,291.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,429.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,344.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,219.50 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,268.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,275.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,328.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,143.50 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,039.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 897.20 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 821.40 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 848.60 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 753.40 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 860.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,005.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 860.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 870.80 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 748.80 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 768.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 870.20 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 601.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 740.40 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 683.60 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 710.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 577.60 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 640.20 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 662.40 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 603.80 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 666.80 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 711.80 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 786.20 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 841.40 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,232.50 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,262.50 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,197.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,162.50 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,052.50 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,129.50 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 987.60 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 910.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 864.20 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 823.60 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 897.60 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 771.60 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 818.20 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 854.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 781.40 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 863.20 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 908.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 892.80 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 624.80 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 718.60 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 734.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 775.40 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 774.20 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 766.80 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 737.40 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 688.60 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 769.20 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 729.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 897.60 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 901.80 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 821.40 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 763.40 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 746.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 711.40 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 648.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 610.20 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 618.20 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 575.40 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 551.20 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 553.80 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 582.80 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 594.40 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 531.60 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 455.40 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 469.90 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 558.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 619.50 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 562.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 588.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 541.50 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 611.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 739.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 646.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 621.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 696.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 742.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 936.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,002.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 1,163.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,440.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 1,400.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 1,788.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,360.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,222.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,634.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 3,334.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 3,702.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 4,240.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 3,304.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 3,235.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 3,286.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 2,741.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 2,475.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 3,170.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 2,728.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 2,716.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2018: low GBX 185.71 per share, central GBX 222.24 per share, high GBX 250.72 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 201.31 per share, central GBX 224.92 per share, high GBX 256.35 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 635.54 per share, central GBX 708.76 per share, high GBX 806.24 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 589.13 per share, central GBX 653.70 per share, high GBX 739.66 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 293.63 per share, central GBX 321.13 per share, high GBX 357.75 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 324.13 per share, central GBX 362.05 per share, high GBX 412.52 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 665.57 per share, central GBX 896.17 per share, high GBX 1,030.73 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 984.95 per share, central GBX 1,290.23 per share, high GBX 1,468.00 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:12.695Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31/reports/549300JXWH1UV5J0XV81-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.