# First Solar (FSLR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FSLR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:38.933Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $178.81 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $111.90 per share, central $131.24 per share, high $150.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value $131.24 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:38.933Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.90×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: -0.05×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: -0.01×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.33×

- FY2025: 0.31×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.34×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -19.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 44.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 20.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 1.3%

- FY2019: -3.6%

- FY2020: 7.5%

- FY2021: 10.6%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: 15.4%

- FY2024: 18.6%

- FY2025: 21.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 19.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.75×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 12.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 33.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 60.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.81×

- FY2022: 15.35×

- FY2023: 0.67×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.3% vs 18.6%

- Per-share earnings: -1.59 to 12.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: $25B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $13.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.59

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.02

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.39

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $49M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$4.05

- FY2017: -$1.59

- FY2018: $1.36

- FY2019: -$1.09

- FY2020: $3.73

- FY2021: $4.38

- FY2022: -$0.41

- FY2023: $7.74

- FY2024: $12.02

- FY2025: $14.21

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.86×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.35×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.1%

- FY2017: -21.9%

- FY2018: 6.6%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: 5.1%

- FY2021: 3.1%

- FY2022: -11.1%

- FY2023: 2.2%

- FY2024: 0.6%

- FY2025: -4.0%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 42% since May 2026 · "First Solar (FSLR) Faces 15% Tariff And Inventory Glut As Solar Pricing Stays Tight" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:47.298Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-12: First Solar (NasdaqGS:FSLR) Revises Annual Guidance Downward ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-solar-nasdaqgs-fslr-revises-172209323.html))

- 2025-10-31: Strong Q3 and Lowered Guidance Could Be a Game Changer for First Solar (FSLR) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-q3-lowered-guidance-could-191451941.html))

- 2026-01-29: First Solar drops 13% on risk of Tesla’s solar push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-solar-drops-13-risk-160612482.html))

- 2026-02-26: First Solar (FSLR) Falls 13.6% on Weak Sales Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-solar-fslr-falls-13-070926555.html))

- 2026-05-04: First Solar's Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/first-solars-q1-earnings-beat-143800168.html))

- 2026-09-24: First Solar leads big solar sector drop as high borrowing costs threaten project financing ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4646945-first-solar-leads-big-solar-sector-drop-as-high-borrowing-costs-threaten-project-financing?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $2.9B 

- FY2018: $2.2B 

- FY2019: $3.1B 

- FY2020: $2.7B 

- FY2021: $2.9B 

- FY2022: $2.6B 

- FY2023: $3.3B 

- FY2024: $4.2B 

- FY2025: $5.2B 

- FY2026: $5.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 44%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: 18.7% 

- FY2018: 17.5% 

- FY2019: 17.9% 

- FY2020: 25.1% 

- FY2021: 25.0% 

- FY2022: 2.7% 

- FY2023: 39.2% 

- FY2024: 44.2% 

- FY2025: 40.6% 

- FY2026: 44.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in solar; annual sales are USD 5.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 5219376000; grossProfit 2120339000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FSLR.US: First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, India, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with thin film semiconductor technology that provides conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It also designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that convert sunlight into electricity. The company serves system developers, independent power producers, utilities, commercial and industrial companies, large corporate energy buyers, and other system owners and operators. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39.2% to 44.2% during 2023–25; it earns 9.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.045652200526170715],[2018,0.0125675475456913],[2019,-0.03637820020197121],[2020,0.07485001776423385],[2021,0.10639266188286493],[2022,-0.005090485409646428],[2023,0.15426874008285088],[2024,0.18633872651437164],[2025,0.21589165479280023],[2026,0.19766504077834374]]; median 0.09062133982354939. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 22.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 12.2% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 416635000; owner earnings 214645000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 190029972.9994012; upkeep 350261027.0005988; owner earnings 378331972.9994012. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.502283672968084.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 806680924.5763568; upkeep 580094075.4236432; owner earnings 558676924.5763568. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4439130901783008.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 1096068261.4304717; upkeep 430007738.56952834; owner earnings 1285534261.4304717. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8526169191405504.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 340659000; upkeep 529216000; owner earnings 1528229000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22291096425993748.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Incremental return on capital 0.12237448801323812, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 15525000 USD.

### What could break it

"Our failure to effectively manage module manufacturing and related costs" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Our failure to effectively manage module manufacturing and related costs

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08014448019295595. Price 178.81; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.725855718705495 → FY2025 14.211192426792639. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $40.49 per share

- 2016-11: $30.32 per share

- 2016-12: $32.09 per share

- 2017-01: $31.19 per share

- 2017-02: $36.19 per share

- 2017-03: $27.10 per share

- 2017-04: $29.55 per share

- 2017-05: $38.51 per share

- 2017-06: $39.88 per share

- 2017-07: $49.31 per share

- 2017-08: $46.96 per share

- 2017-09: $45.88 per share

- 2017-10: $54.82 per share

- 2017-11: $62.10 per share

- 2017-12: $67.52 per share

- 2018-01: $67.17 per share

- 2018-02: $62.85 per share

- 2018-03: $70.98 per share

- 2018-04: $70.91 per share

- 2018-05: $67.61 per share

- 2018-06: $52.66 per share

- 2018-07: $52.35 per share

- 2018-08: $52.08 per share

- 2018-09: $48.42 per share

- 2018-10: $41.80 per share

- 2018-11: $44.45 per share

- 2018-12: $42.46 per share

- 2019-01: $50.59 per share

- 2019-02: $52.55 per share

- 2019-03: $52.84 per share

- 2019-04: $61.53 per share

- 2019-05: $58.04 per share

- 2019-06: $65.68 per share

- 2019-07: $64.49 per share

- 2019-08: $62.07 per share

- 2019-09: $58.01 per share

- 2019-10: $51.79 per share

- 2019-11: $55.24 per share

- 2019-12: $55.96 per share

- 2020-01: $49.58 per share

- 2020-02: $45.77 per share

- 2020-03: $36.06 per share

- 2020-04: $44.01 per share

- 2020-05: $46.62 per share

- 2020-06: $49.50 per share

- 2020-07: $59.55 per share

- 2020-08: $76.59 per share

- 2020-09: $66.20 per share

- 2020-10: $87.05 per share

- 2020-11: $93.43 per share

- 2020-12: $98.92 per share

- 2021-01: $99.15 per share

- 2021-02: $81.02 per share

- 2021-03: $87.30 per share

- 2021-04: $76.53 per share

- 2021-05: $76.11 per share

- 2021-06: $90.51 per share

- 2021-07: $86.04 per share

- 2021-08: $94.00 per share

- 2021-09: $95.46 per share

- 2021-10: $119.59 per share

- 2021-11: $103.60 per share

- 2021-12: $87.16 per share

- 2022-01: $78.38 per share

- 2022-02: $75.29 per share

- 2022-03: $83.74 per share

- 2022-04: $73.03 per share

- 2022-05: $70.61 per share

- 2022-06: $68.13 per share

- 2022-07: $99.17 per share

- 2022-08: $127.55 per share

- 2022-09: $132.27 per share

- 2022-10: $145.57 per share

- 2022-11: $172.53 per share

- 2022-12: $149.79 per share

- 2023-01: $177.60 per share

- 2023-02: $169.14 per share

- 2023-03: $217.50 per share

- 2023-04: $182.58 per share

- 2023-05: $202.96 per share

- 2023-06: $190.09 per share

- 2023-07: $207.40 per share

- 2023-08: $189.12 per share

- 2023-09: $161.59 per share

- 2023-10: $142.45 per share

- 2023-11: $157.78 per share

- 2023-12: $172.28 per share

- 2024-01: $146.30 per share

- 2024-02: $153.89 per share

- 2024-03: $168.80 per share

- 2024-04: $176.30 per share

- 2024-05: $271.76 per share

- 2024-06: $225.46 per share

- 2024-07: $215.99 per share

- 2024-08: $227.37 per share

- 2024-09: $249.44 per share

- 2024-10: $194.48 per share

- 2024-11: $199.27 per share

- 2024-12: $176.24 per share

- 2025-01: $167.52 per share

- 2025-02: $136.18 per share

- 2025-03: $126.43 per share

- 2025-04: $125.82 per share

- 2025-05: $158.08 per share

- 2025-06: $165.54 per share

- 2025-07: $174.73 per share

- 2025-08: $195.19 per share

- 2025-09: $220.53 per share

- 2025-10: $266.94 per share

- 2025-11: $272.92 per share

- 2025-12: $261.23 per share

- 2026-01: $225.52 per share

- 2026-02: $197.20 per share

- 2026-03: $197.26 per share

- 2026-04: $201.89 per share

- 2026-05: $306.79 per share

- 2026-06: $235.96 per share

- 2026-07: $211.03 per share

- 2026-08: $201.90 per share

- 2026-09: $175.16 per share

- 2026-10: $178.81 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $46.65 per share, central $50.54 per share, high $55.72 per share

- FY2017: low $56.25 per share, central $60.14 per share, high $65.31 per share

- FY2023: low $45.71 per share, central $49.40 per share, high $54.30 per share

- FY2024: low $73.69 per share, central $84.74 per share, high $96.05 per share

- FY2025: low $119.50 per share, central $138.26 per share, high $156.81 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:20.906Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.