# FTAI Aviation (FTAI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FTAI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:39.359Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $168.56 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $4.72 per share, central $5.60 per share, high $6.11 per share. Buy at or below the central value $5.60 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:39.359Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.1% at the stated quote. About 3.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.47×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.31×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.27×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 26.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 157.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.4%

- FY2017: 0.3%

- FY2018: 1.4%

- FY2019: 2.4%

- FY2020: 1.4%

- FY2021: 2.0%

- FY2022: 5.8%

- FY2023: 13.7%

- FY2024: 10.7%

- FY2025: 18.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.36×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$164M

- Net income, five-year total: $456M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 8.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 7.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 50.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 44.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 6.95×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.3% vs 13.7%

- Per-share earnings: -0.15 to 2.43 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.8%

- Market cap gain: $19B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $321M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $2.58

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.43

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $220M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $579M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.23

- FY2017: $0.00

- FY2018: $0.06

- FY2019: $2.23

- FY2020: -$1.03

- FY2021: -$1.16

- FY2022: -$1.94

- FY2023: $2.43

- FY2024: $0.09

- FY2025: $4.83

### accounting: fail

- Sloan accruals exceed 10%

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 18.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -0.62×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.34×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.3%

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: -4.8%

- FY2019: 2.3%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: -1.7%

- FY2022: -7.0%

- FY2023: 3.9%

- FY2024: 4.9%

- FY2025: 18.6%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 45% since Feb 2026 · "FTAI Aviation Tumbles After Earnings Miss, Still Raises Guidance" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +24.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:47.421Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 64.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-12-30: FTAI Unit To Pursue AI Data Center Power Market; Stock Breaks Out ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/5ff78b84-c538-3e67-8b64-d036e1793b9a/ftai-unit-to-pursue-ai-data.html))

- 2026-01-06: Why FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Is Up 14.3% After Launching Its New FTAI Power Platform ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-ftai-aviation-ftai-14-060842188.html))

- 2026-02-25: FTAI Aviation Tumbles After Earnings Miss, Still Raises Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/2cc33e00-623e-372d-93df-491d4ef14a53/ftai-aviation-tumbles-after.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +24.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000162828026012940/ftai-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $222M 

- FY2018: $351M 

- FY2019: $586M 

- FY2020: $370M 

- FY2021: $336M 

- FY2022: $722M 

- FY2023: $1.2B 

- FY2024: $1.8B 

- FY2025: $2.5B 

- FY2026: $3.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 31.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000162828026012940/ftai-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 14.5% 

- FY2017: 16.7% 

- FY2018: 20.4% 

- FY2019: 20.8% 

- FY2020: 22.8% 

- FY2021: 37.8% 

- FY2022: 30.8% 

- FY2023: 33.3% 

- FY2024: 33.0% 

- FY2025: 31.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000162828026012940/ftai-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 2507409000; grossProfit 779352000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FTAI.US: FTAI Aviation Ltd. owns, acquires, and sells aviation equipment for the transportation of goods and people worldwide. It operates in two segments, Aviation Leasing and Aerospace Products. The Aviation Leasing segment owns, leases, manages, and sells aircraft and aircraft engines. As of December 31, 2025, this segment owned and managed 290 aviation assets consisting of 47 commercial aircraft and 243 engines, including eight aircraft and seventeen engines in Russia. The Aerospace Products segment develops, manufactures, repairs/refurbishes, and sells aircraft engines and aftermarket components for the commercial aircraft engines. It also engages in the offshore energy business, which consists of vessels and equipment that support offshore oil and gas activities and production. FTAI Aviation Ltd. has a strategic collaboration with Aeronautical Engineers, Inc. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 31.1% to 33.3% during 2023–25; it earns 2.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 33.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 33%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000162828026012940/ftai-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.004091717220021828],[2017,0.003353844592872327],[2018,0.014429451400921499],[2019,0.024045732540754344],[2020,0.01371586232290593],[2021,0.019709987666337553],[2022,0.05796016418091653],[2023,0.13745304479207257],[2024,0.10731724084336125],[2025,0.1876548273549509]]; median 0.02187786010354595. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 8.9% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 471422000; upkeep 92826000; owner earnings 134000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3518.0746268656717.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 607001000; upkeep 142496000; owner earnings 5882000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 103.1963617817069.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 724536000; upkeep 176204000; owner earnings 225108000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.218615064768911.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 591889000; upkeep 185003000; owner earnings 243817000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.427595286628906.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 922900000; upkeep 233661000; owner earnings 8682000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 106.30039161483529.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000162828026012940/ftai-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 526640000; upkeep 225797000; owner earnings 501064000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0510433796880239.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Incremental return on capital 0.08902481278877845, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,100027000],[2017,100058000],[2018,110584000],[2019,115379000],[2020,131441000],[2021,142767000],[2022,155647000],[2023,151642000],[2024,154340000],[2025,145448000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000162828026012940/ftai-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 124167000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FTAI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.139 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 64.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.9636770867884199. Price 168.56; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.15064357313518859 → FY2025 4.825025421554655. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $11.88 per share

- 2016-11: $13.40 per share

- 2016-12: $13.30 per share

- 2017-01: $14.67 per share

- 2017-02: $15.34 per share

- 2017-03: $14.91 per share

- 2017-04: $15.05 per share

- 2017-05: $15.98 per share

- 2017-06: $15.94 per share

- 2017-07: $16.86 per share

- 2017-08: $17.05 per share

- 2017-09: $18.04 per share

- 2017-10: $18.23 per share

- 2017-11: $18.20 per share

- 2017-12: $19.93 per share

- 2018-01: $18.05 per share

- 2018-02: $16.33 per share

- 2018-03: $15.95 per share

- 2018-04: $16.64 per share

- 2018-05: $17.29 per share

- 2018-06: $18.07 per share

- 2018-07: $18.63 per share

- 2018-08: $18.10 per share

- 2018-09: $18.18 per share

- 2018-10: $16.65 per share

- 2018-11: $15.91 per share

- 2018-12: $14.34 per share

- 2019-01: $14.75 per share

- 2019-02: $16.02 per share

- 2019-03: $17.11 per share

- 2019-04: $16.25 per share

- 2019-05: $15.38 per share

- 2019-06: $15.10 per share

- 2019-07: $14.96 per share

- 2019-08: $14.91 per share

- 2019-09: $15.15 per share

- 2019-10: $15.85 per share

- 2019-11: $18.01 per share

- 2019-12: $19.54 per share

- 2020-01: $19.18 per share

- 2020-02: $18.08 per share

- 2020-03: $8.20 per share

- 2020-04: $11.76 per share

- 2020-05: $11.25 per share

- 2020-06: $12.99 per share

- 2020-07: $15.10 per share

- 2020-08: $15.85 per share

- 2020-09: $17.13 per share

- 2020-10: $15.74 per share

- 2020-11: $20.87 per share

- 2020-12: $23.46 per share

- 2021-01: $22.10 per share

- 2021-02: $26.73 per share

- 2021-03: $28.19 per share

- 2021-04: $28.24 per share

- 2021-05: $29.24 per share

- 2021-06: $33.55 per share

- 2021-07: $28.59 per share

- 2021-08: $26.98 per share

- 2021-09: $25.38 per share

- 2021-10: $26.11 per share

- 2021-11: $22.43 per share

- 2021-12: $28.92 per share

- 2022-01: $26.69 per share

- 2022-02: $23.60 per share

- 2022-03: $25.75 per share

- 2022-04: $21.49 per share

- 2022-05: $20.07 per share

- 2022-06: $19.34 per share

- 2022-07: $22.99 per share

- 2022-08: $16.72 per share

- 2022-09: $15.00 per share

- 2022-10: $17.38 per share

- 2022-11: $17.52 per share

- 2022-12: $17.12 per share

- 2023-01: $22.36 per share

- 2023-02: $25.27 per share

- 2023-03: $27.96 per share

- 2023-04: $28.45 per share

- 2023-05: $28.05 per share

- 2023-06: $31.66 per share

- 2023-07: $32.21 per share

- 2023-08: $36.96 per share

- 2023-09: $35.55 per share

- 2023-10: $37.61 per share

- 2023-11: $41.21 per share

- 2023-12: $46.40 per share

- 2024-01: $53.95 per share

- 2024-02: $56.29 per share

- 2024-03: $67.30 per share

- 2024-04: $70.21 per share

- 2024-05: $84.32 per share

- 2024-06: $103.23 per share

- 2024-07: $111.45 per share

- 2024-08: $127.81 per share

- 2024-09: $132.90 per share

- 2024-10: $134.44 per share

- 2024-11: $168.82 per share

- 2024-12: $144.04 per share

- 2025-01: $100.53 per share

- 2025-02: $128.71 per share

- 2025-03: $111.03 per share

- 2025-04: $107.11 per share

- 2025-05: $117.15 per share

- 2025-06: $115.04 per share

- 2025-07: $137.61 per share

- 2025-08: $153.85 per share

- 2025-09: $166.86 per share

- 2025-10: $172.90 per share

- 2025-11: $173.24 per share

- 2025-12: $196.85 per share

- 2026-01: $272.32 per share

- 2026-02: $305.80 per share

- 2026-03: $245.00 per share

- 2026-04: $249.67 per share

- 2026-05: $260.34 per share

- 2026-06: $270.53 per share

- 2026-07: $206.00 per share

- 2026-08: $190.10 per share

- 2026-09: $167.03 per share

- 2026-10: $168.56 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $2.33 per share, central $2.33 per share, high $2.34 per share

- FY2020: low $1.82 per share, central $1.82 per share, high $1.83 per share

- FY2021: low $2.04 per share, central $2.04 per share, high $2.05 per share

- FY2025: low $4.04 per share, central $4.74 per share, high $5.14 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000162828026012940/ftai-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.