# GCM Grosvenor (GCMG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GCMG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:42.741Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $12.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $5.41 per share, central $6.06 per share, high $6.93 per share. Buy at or below the central value $6.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:42.741Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.0% at the stated quote. About 6.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 1.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: -0.14×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: -0.04×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.26×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.28×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 43.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 98.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 97.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: -61.0%

- FY2021: 48.9%

- FY2022: 37.0%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: 10.1%

- FY2025: 57.3%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 53.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $118M

- Net income, five-year total: $118M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -10.3 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.16×

- FY2022: 1.35×

- FY2023: 0.92×

- FY2024: 0.50×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 48.9% vs 10.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.49 to 0.10 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 37.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 37.0%

- Per-share value growth: -33.1%

- Per-share value change: -$0.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.49

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.10

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.10

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 48.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: $1.50

- FY2020: $0.10

- FY2021: $0.49

- FY2022: $0.11

- FY2023: $0.07

- FY2024: $0.10

- FY2025: $0.23

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -17.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 25.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.05×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -9.7%

- FY2020: -10.1%

- FY2021: -27.0%

- FY2022: -40.2%

- FY2023: -15.7%

- FY2024: -21.2%

- FY2025: -17.0%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.2% a year for ten years · sales +1.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:48.316Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819796/000181979626000010/gcm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2019: $416M 

- FY2020: $430M 

- FY2021: $532M 

- FY2022: $447M 

- FY2023: $445M 

- FY2024: $514M 

- FY2025: $558M 

- FY2026: $565M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 99.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819796/000181979626000010/gcm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2019: 97.6% 

- FY2020: 98.7% 

- FY2022: 98.6% 

- FY2023: 97.4% 

- FY2024: 97.3% 

- FY2025: 97.9% 

- FY2026: 99.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 557.6 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819796/000181979626000010/gcm-20251231.htm#000181979626000010 (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 557565000; grossProfit 545654000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 97.3% to 97.9% during 2023–25; it earns 43% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 97.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 97.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819796/000181979626000010/gcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 97.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,3.147963733193774],[2020,-0.6099745896224018],[2021,0.4887250323410411],[2022,0.3704863668799738],[2023,-0.04682033812845684],[2024,0.10071453941720147],[2025,0.5733825682470848],[2026,0.5344838471505508]]; median 0.42960569961050743. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 7.7% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 7 of 7 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3995000; owner earnings 66341000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1308000; owner earnings 12559000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 577000; owner earnings 24924999. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 782000; owner earnings 26750000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3763000; owner earnings 11707000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 4060328.748790361; upkeep 12668671.251209639; owner earnings 9346328.748790361. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4344303370792371.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819796/000181979626000010/gcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 3495057.5745222624; upkeep 5001942.425477738; owner earnings 45185752.40927661. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0773486638634511.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2019,69624000],[2020,153670000],[2021,14525000],[2022,18432000],[2023,20321000],[2024,20549000],[2025,25343000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819796/000181979626000010/gcm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 30657000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); GCMG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.82 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14802677856689944. Price 12.86; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-02: $9.85 per share

- 2019-03: $9.90 per share

- 2019-04: $9.90 per share

- 2019-05: $9.96 per share

- 2019-06: $10.02 per share

- 2019-07: $10.03 per share

- 2019-08: $10.07 per share

- 2019-09: $10.14 per share

- 2019-10: $10.15 per share

- 2019-11: $10.20 per share

- 2019-12: $10.25 per share

- 2020-01: $10.40 per share

- 2020-02: $10.33 per share

- 2020-03: $10.29 per share

- 2020-04: $10.32 per share

- 2020-05: $10.35 per share

- 2020-06: $10.85 per share

- 2020-07: $10.45 per share

- 2020-08: $10.36 per share

- 2020-09: $10.40 per share

- 2020-10: $10.35 per share

- 2020-11: $9.50 per share

- 2020-12: $13.32 per share

- 2021-01: $12.96 per share

- 2021-02: $12.45 per share

- 2021-03: $11.90 per share

- 2021-04: $13.19 per share

- 2021-05: $11.95 per share

- 2021-06: $10.42 per share

- 2021-07: $9.96 per share

- 2021-08: $11.12 per share

- 2021-09: $11.52 per share

- 2021-10: $11.45 per share

- 2021-11: $11.46 per share

- 2021-12: $10.50 per share

- 2022-01: $9.09 per share

- 2022-02: $9.99 per share

- 2022-03: $9.71 per share

- 2022-04: $8.25 per share

- 2022-05: $8.19 per share

- 2022-06: $6.85 per share

- 2022-07: $7.91 per share

- 2022-08: $7.85 per share

- 2022-09: $7.89 per share

- 2022-10: $8.27 per share

- 2022-11: $8.77 per share

- 2022-12: $7.61 per share

- 2023-01: $8.96 per share

- 2023-02: $8.23 per share

- 2023-03: $7.81 per share

- 2023-04: $8.07 per share

- 2023-05: $6.90 per share

- 2023-06: $7.54 per share

- 2023-07: $7.85 per share

- 2023-08: $7.64 per share

- 2023-09: $7.76 per share

- 2023-10: $8.05 per share

- 2023-11: $8.07 per share

- 2023-12: $8.96 per share

- 2024-01: $8.69 per share

- 2024-02: $8.47 per share

- 2024-03: $9.66 per share

- 2024-04: $9.44 per share

- 2024-05: $10.05 per share

- 2024-06: $9.76 per share

- 2024-07: $11.13 per share

- 2024-08: $10.89 per share

- 2024-09: $11.32 per share

- 2024-10: $11.54 per share

- 2024-11: $12.41 per share

- 2024-12: $12.27 per share

- 2025-01: $13.52 per share

- 2025-02: $14.12 per share

- 2025-03: $13.23 per share

- 2025-04: $12.54 per share

- 2025-05: $12.61 per share

- 2025-06: $11.56 per share

- 2025-07: $11.79 per share

- 2025-08: $12.96 per share

- 2025-09: $12.07 per share

- 2025-10: $11.51 per share

- 2025-11: $10.98 per share

- 2025-12: $11.32 per share

- 2026-01: $11.32 per share

- 2026-02: $11.58 per share

- 2026-03: $9.80 per share

- 2026-04: $10.92 per share

- 2026-05: $10.63 per share

- 2026-06: $12.30 per share

- 2026-07: $12.48 per share

- 2026-08: $13.79 per share

- 2026-09: $12.89 per share

- 2026-10: $12.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $1.41 per share, central $1.57 per share, high $1.80 per share

- FY2024: low $1.28 per share, central $1.40 per share, high $1.55 per share

- FY2025: low $1.82 per share, central $2.02 per share, high $2.29 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:24.786Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819796/000181979626000010/gcm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.