# Genesco (GCO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GCO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:43.059Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $37.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $14.17 per share, central $16.02 per share, high $18.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value $16.02 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:43.059Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.9% at the stated quote. About 5.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 1.65×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: -0.06×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.01×

- FY2026: 0.01×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 47.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.2%

- FY2018: 6.2%

- FY2019: 9.9%

- FY2020: 5.1%

- FY2021: -8.1%

- FY2022: 12.7%

- FY2023: 6.9%

- FY2024: 1.3%

- FY2025: 1.1%

- FY2026: 2.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $148M

- Net income, five-year total: $164M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.76×

- FY2024: 1.65×

- FY2025: 0.40×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.9% vs 1.3%

- Per-share earnings: 4.11 to -1.50 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -7.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.7%

- Market cap gain: -$889M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$465M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -7.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: -$5.61

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.50

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.68

- Average buyback yield: 9.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $36M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $103M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 1.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $4.83

- FY2018: -$5.80

- FY2019: -$2.66

- FY2020: $3.92

- FY2021: -$3.97

- FY2022: $7.92

- FY2023: $5.66

- FY2024: -$1.50

- FY2025: -$1.74

- FY2026: $1.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.78×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 10.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: -21.0%

- FY2019: -24.4%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: -13.5%

- FY2022: -8.0%

- FY2023: 16.3%

- FY2024: -8.4%

- FY2025: -8.0%

- FY2026: -9.5%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 42% since Jan 2022 · "Genesco Lowers Guidance After a ‘Meaningful Pullback’ in Sales Following Back-to-school" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales -0.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:48.339Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-04: Genesco Acknowledges 'More Pronounced' Tariff Impact, Stands By Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/genesco-acknowledges-more-pronounced-tariff-144138566.html))

- 2025-12-04: Genesco Shares Plunge 28% After Weak Q3 Results And Lower Outlook ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/genesco-shares-plunge-28-after-weak-q3-results-and-lower-outlook))

- 2026-01-13: Genesco Rallies on Holiday Sales Strength and Higher FY26 View ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/genesco-rallies-holiday-sales-strength-125900825.html))

- 2026-03-09: Genesco reports higher Q4 sales and profit on Journeys growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/genesco-reports-higher-q4-sales-144838152.html))

- 2026-05-29: Genesco Raises FY27 Adj. EPS Outlook ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/genesco-raises-fy27-adj-eps-outlook))

- 2026-09-07: Genesco raises FY27 profit target despite revenue slump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/genesco-raises-fy27-profit-target-113010954.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales -0.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18498/000119312526123492/gco-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2018: $2.1B 

- FY2019: $2.2B 

- FY2020: $2.2B 

- FY2021: $1.8B 

- FY2022: $2.4B 

- FY2023: $2.4B 

- FY2024: $2.3B 

- FY2025: $2.3B 

- FY2026: $2.4B 

- FY2027: $2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 46.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18498/000119312526123492/gco-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2017: 48.3% 

- FY2018: 47.5% 

- FY2019: 47.8% 

- FY2020: 48.4% 

- FY2021: 45.0% 

- FY2022: 48.8% 

- FY2023: 47.6% 

- FY2024: 47.3% 

- FY2025: 47.2% 

- FY2026: 46.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel retail; annual sales are USD 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18498/000119312526123492/gco-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-25); FY2026: revenue 2436096000; grossProfit 1126850000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); GCO.US: Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories for young men, women, and children through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce operations. The Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment is involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories primarily for men. The Genesco Brands Group segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and other brands. The company provides its products through catalogs and e-commerce websites, including journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.com, and nashvilleshoewarehouse.com. It operates retail stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland primarily under the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy brands. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.3% to 47.3% during 2024–26; it earns 5.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18498/000119312526123492/gco-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 46.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.10215066853476366],[2018,0.062068655597269796],[2019,0.09864986685425932],[2020,0.051130105744637624],[2021,-0.08091110415047204],[2022,0.1265133030052318],[2023,0.06852795221266757],[2024,0.012631857796547828],[2025,0.011275903795937884],[2026,0.02607124551775283]]; median 0.056599380670953714. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 65.8% of cash earnings on expansion; paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 93970000; owner earnings 79229000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 29767000; owner earnings 81191000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2022: growth capex 10936000; upkeep 42969000; owner earnings 114850000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09521985198084458.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 59934000; owner earnings 54799000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18498/000119312526123492/gco-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-25); FY2026: growth capex 8729000; upkeep 53325000; owner earnings 13269000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6578491220137161.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18498/000119312526123492/gco-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-25); FY2026: cash repurchases 12566000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 14.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); GCO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 14.066999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15941943902907185. Price 37.42; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 3.8947714454673803 → FY2026 1.248964608433735. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $53.80 per share

- 2016-11: $63.20 per share

- 2016-12: $62.10 per share

- 2017-01: $60.20 per share

- 2017-02: $58.30 per share

- 2017-03: $55.45 per share

- 2017-04: $53.30 per share

- 2017-05: $37.20 per share

- 2017-06: $33.90 per share

- 2017-07: $32.10 per share

- 2017-08: $21.15 per share

- 2017-09: $26.60 per share

- 2017-10: $24.50 per share

- 2017-11: $31.10 per share

- 2017-12: $32.50 per share

- 2018-01: $34.85 per share

- 2018-02: $39.30 per share

- 2018-03: $40.60 per share

- 2018-04: $42.75 per share

- 2018-05: $43.70 per share

- 2018-06: $39.70 per share

- 2018-07: $40.70 per share

- 2018-08: $50.85 per share

- 2018-09: $47.10 per share

- 2018-10: $42.79 per share

- 2018-11: $41.76 per share

- 2018-12: $44.30 per share

- 2019-01: $45.18 per share

- 2019-02: $48.27 per share

- 2019-03: $45.55 per share

- 2019-04: $44.81 per share

- 2019-05: $44.98 per share

- 2019-06: $42.29 per share

- 2019-07: $39.38 per share

- 2019-08: $35.68 per share

- 2019-09: $40.02 per share

- 2019-10: $38.85 per share

- 2019-11: $37.14 per share

- 2019-12: $47.92 per share

- 2020-01: $39.32 per share

- 2020-02: $34.41 per share

- 2020-03: $13.34 per share

- 2020-04: $18.93 per share

- 2020-05: $18.49 per share

- 2020-06: $21.66 per share

- 2020-07: $15.55 per share

- 2020-08: $19.50 per share

- 2020-09: $21.54 per share

- 2020-10: $17.72 per share

- 2020-11: $31.37 per share

- 2020-12: $30.09 per share

- 2021-01: $38.81 per share

- 2021-02: $44.94 per share

- 2021-03: $47.50 per share

- 2021-04: $50.00 per share

- 2021-05: $55.00 per share

- 2021-06: $63.68 per share

- 2021-07: $57.45 per share

- 2021-08: $62.03 per share

- 2021-09: $57.73 per share

- 2021-10: $60.59 per share

- 2021-11: $63.20 per share

- 2021-12: $64.17 per share

- 2022-01: $64.33 per share

- 2022-02: $64.15 per share

- 2022-03: $63.61 per share

- 2022-04: $62.03 per share

- 2022-05: $56.31 per share

- 2022-06: $49.91 per share

- 2022-07: $56.05 per share

- 2022-08: $56.58 per share

- 2022-09: $39.32 per share

- 2022-10: $47.04 per share

- 2022-11: $52.20 per share

- 2022-12: $46.02 per share

- 2023-01: $48.29 per share

- 2023-02: $44.97 per share

- 2023-03: $36.88 per share

- 2023-04: $34.66 per share

- 2023-05: $18.03 per share

- 2023-06: $25.04 per share

- 2023-07: $28.21 per share

- 2023-08: $34.28 per share

- 2023-09: $30.82 per share

- 2023-10: $27.41 per share

- 2023-11: $37.37 per share

- 2023-12: $35.21 per share

- 2024-01: $27.78 per share

- 2024-02: $31.92 per share

- 2024-03: $28.14 per share

- 2024-04: $25.31 per share

- 2024-05: $28.50 per share

- 2024-06: $25.86 per share

- 2024-07: $30.83 per share

- 2024-08: $30.19 per share

- 2024-09: $27.17 per share

- 2024-10: $25.62 per share

- 2024-11: $33.59 per share

- 2024-12: $42.75 per share

- 2025-01: $41.65 per share

- 2025-02: $36.57 per share

- 2025-03: $21.23 per share

- 2025-04: $19.40 per share

- 2025-05: $21.73 per share

- 2025-06: $19.69 per share

- 2025-07: $24.06 per share

- 2025-08: $31.98 per share

- 2025-09: $28.99 per share

- 2025-10: $29.01 per share

- 2025-11: $35.85 per share

- 2025-12: $24.77 per share

- 2026-01: $28.93 per share

- 2026-02: $27.24 per share

- 2026-03: $28.99 per share

- 2026-04: $35.49 per share

- 2026-05: $38.37 per share

- 2026-06: $33.77 per share

- 2026-07: $38.22 per share

- 2026-08: $33.47 per share

- 2026-09: $34.14 per share

- 2026-10: $37.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $36.08 per share, central $41.00 per share, high $47.55 per share

- FY2018: low $35.75 per share, central $40.68 per share, high $47.24 per share

- FY2019: low $42.71 per share, central $47.72 per share, high $54.40 per share

- FY2020: low $51.03 per share, central $61.86 per share, high $71.72 per share

- FY2023: low $47.16 per share, central $53.66 per share, high $62.31 per share

- FY2024: low $51.93 per share, central $59.09 per share, high $68.62 per share

- FY2026: low $18.99 per share, central $20.87 per share, high $23.37 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18498/000119312526123492/gco-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.