# Gfl Environmental Holdings (GFL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GFL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:44.872Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: CAD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $43.55 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.44 per share, central $10.73 per share, high $12.44 per share. Buy at or below the central value $10.73 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:44.872Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.7% at the stated quote. About 4.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 12.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.01×

- FY2020: -0.08×

- FY2021: -0.02×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 0.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.5%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: -1.1%

- FY2022: 0.4%

- FY2023: 2.0%

- FY2024: 1.9%

- FY2025: 4.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.11×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CAD 4.7B

- Net income, five-year total: CAD 2.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.23×

- FY2022: -1.39×

- FY2023: 10.57×

- FY2024: 0.48×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: pass

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1.1% vs 2.0%

- Per-share earnings: -1.67 to 0.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Per-share value change: CAD 1.79

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CAD -1.67

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CAD 0.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 6.6%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: CAD -1.25

- FY2020: CAD -3.15

- FY2021: CAD -1.67

- FY2022: CAD -0.84

- FY2023: CAD 0.12

- FY2024: CAD -1.84

- FY2025: CAD 10.44

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals exceed 10%

- Sloan accruals: 13.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.59×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 11.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.34×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.18×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -5.7%

- FY2020: -10.2%

- FY2021: -8.2%

- FY2022: -7.1%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: -10.7%

- FY2025: 13.1%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.8% a year for ten years · sales +7.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:48.812Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: GFL Environmental's Second-quarter Profit, Revenue Beat Expectations; Full-year Outlook Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gfl-environmental-apos-second-quarter-210326015.html))

- 2025-11-05: GFL Environmental Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results and Raises Full Year 2025 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gfl-environmental-reports-third-quarter-210500258.html))

- 2026-02-14: GFL Environmental Relocation And CA$2b Plan Reshape Growth And Risk Profile ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gfl-environmental-relocation-ca-2b-002813282.html))

- 2026-07-29: GFL Environmental Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gfl-environmental-reports-second-quarter-201500111.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2019: CAD 3.3B 

- FY2020: CAD 4.2B 

- FY2021: CAD 5.1B 

- FY2022: CAD 6.8B 

- FY2023: CAD 7.5B 

- FY2024: CAD 6.1B 

- FY2025: CAD 6.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 20.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2019: 8.2% 

- FY2020: 4.5% 

- FY2021: 9.2% 

- FY2022: 11.8% 

- FY2023: 16.9% 

- FY2024: 18.4% 

- FY2025: 20.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in waste management; annual sales are CAD 6.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 6615900000; grossProfit 1367300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GFL.US: GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.9% to 20.7% during 2023–25; it earns 0.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-0.005177917915848237],[2020,-0.0454407829756667],[2021,-0.01058931812289344],[2022,0.004229984701682815],[2023,0.020109603649505304],[2024,0.01886961555779498],[2025,0.04191196066113235]]; median 0.004229984701682815. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 7 years; bought back CAD 3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 647200000; owner earnings 139000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 780100000; owner earnings 433600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1055100000; owner earnings 480000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1141400000; owner earnings 4008800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2019,13100000],[2020,13100000],[2021,17900000],[2022,20700000],[2023,25000000],[2024,28200000],[2025,31100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 2967400000 CAD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GFL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.549 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.26043691461366214. Price 43.55; FX 0.7047; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-03: $15.05 per share

- 2020-04: $17.30 per share

- 2020-05: $19.17 per share

- 2020-06: $18.77 per share

- 2020-07: $21.60 per share

- 2020-08: $18.25 per share

- 2020-09: $21.26 per share

- 2020-10: $19.14 per share

- 2020-11: $27.13 per share

- 2020-12: $29.18 per share

- 2021-01: $28.29 per share

- 2021-02: $31.02 per share

- 2021-03: $34.95 per share

- 2021-04: $32.93 per share

- 2021-05: $32.54 per share

- 2021-06: $31.92 per share

- 2021-07: $34.87 per share

- 2021-08: $35.19 per share

- 2021-09: $37.15 per share

- 2021-10: $41.15 per share

- 2021-11: $38.60 per share

- 2021-12: $37.85 per share

- 2022-01: $32.87 per share

- 2022-02: $29.25 per share

- 2022-03: $32.54 per share

- 2022-04: $30.13 per share

- 2022-05: $30.57 per share

- 2022-06: $25.80 per share

- 2022-07: $27.65 per share

- 2022-08: $28.10 per share

- 2022-09: $25.29 per share

- 2022-10: $26.99 per share

- 2022-11: $28.97 per share

- 2022-12: $29.23 per share

- 2023-01: $30.86 per share

- 2023-02: $30.37 per share

- 2023-03: $34.44 per share

- 2023-04: $36.30 per share

- 2023-05: $36.14 per share

- 2023-06: $38.80 per share

- 2023-07: $34.14 per share

- 2023-08: $32.40 per share

- 2023-09: $31.76 per share

- 2023-10: $28.82 per share

- 2023-11: $28.70 per share

- 2023-12: $34.51 per share

- 2024-01: $33.97 per share

- 2024-02: $36.08 per share

- 2024-03: $34.50 per share

- 2024-04: $31.90 per share

- 2024-05: $31.47 per share

- 2024-06: $38.93 per share

- 2024-07: $38.82 per share

- 2024-08: $43.31 per share

- 2024-09: $39.88 per share

- 2024-10: $41.80 per share

- 2024-11: $47.10 per share

- 2024-12: $44.54 per share

- 2025-01: $43.13 per share

- 2025-02: $45.16 per share

- 2025-03: $48.31 per share

- 2025-04: $49.90 per share

- 2025-05: $50.43 per share

- 2025-06: $50.46 per share

- 2025-07: $50.34 per share

- 2025-08: $50.04 per share

- 2025-09: $47.38 per share

- 2025-10: $43.69 per share

- 2025-11: $45.47 per share

- 2025-12: $42.95 per share

- 2026-01: $42.95 per share

- 2026-02: $44.19 per share

- 2026-03: $41.72 per share

- 2026-04: $40.11 per share

- 2026-05: $33.54 per share

- 2026-06: $36.79 per share

- 2026-07: $41.32 per share

- 2026-08: $42.29 per share

- 2026-09: $41.83 per share

- 2026-10: $42.78 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $4.23 per share, central $4.81 per share, high $5.58 per share

- FY2024: low $3.27 per share, central $3.72 per share, high $4.32 per share

- FY2025: low $8.86 per share, central $10.08 per share, high $11.71 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.