# Graco (GGG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GGG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:45.179Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $81.78 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $44.75 per share, central $60.91 per share, high $70.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value $60.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:45.179Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.26×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.27×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.29×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.27×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 42.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 32.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 52.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 26.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.8%

- FY2017: 45.7%

- FY2018: 60.1%

- FY2019: 51.4%

- FY2020: 44.9%

- FY2021: 48.1%

- FY2022: 36.5%

- FY2023: 39.4%

- FY2024: 32.0%

- FY2025: 33.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 39.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 32.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.78×

- FY2023: 0.81×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 1.12×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 45.7% vs 33.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.45 to 2.94 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: $8.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.3%

- Per-share value change: $1.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.45

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.94

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.35

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $462M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 45.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 33.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.24

- FY2017: $1.45

- FY2018: $1.97

- FY2019: $2.00

- FY2020: $1.92

- FY2021: $2.52

- FY2022: $2.66

- FY2023: $2.94

- FY2024: $2.82

- FY2025: $3.08

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.31×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.34×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -18.4%

- FY2017: -6.2%

- FY2018: -1.8%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: -3.2%

- FY2021: -0.7%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: -5.3%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -4.9%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10% a year for ten years · "Favorable pricing actions also bode well for the segment." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +5.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:48.825Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-22: Graco misses Q3 estimates as construction weakness weighs; shares slip 2% after hours ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4507229-graco-misses-q3-estimates-as-construction-weakness-weighs-shares-slip-2-percent-after-hours?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-01-30: Graco Builds Scale With Color Service Deal And Record Sales Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/graco-builds-scale-color-deal-161150807.html))

- 2026-04-24: GGG Q1 Deep Dive: Tariffs, Project Timing, and Construction Softness Weigh on Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ggg-q1-deep-dive-tariffs-090123030.html))

- 2026-07-24: Graco's Order Trends, Backlogs Strengthen Near-Term Visibility, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/graco-apos-order-trends-backlogs-161131519.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42888/000004288826000081/ggg-20251226.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: $1.3B 

- FY2017: $1.5B 

- FY2018: $1.7B 

- FY2019: $1.6B 

- FY2020: $1.7B 

- FY2021: $2.0B 

- FY2022: $2.1B 

- FY2023: $2.2B 

- FY2024: $2.1B 

- FY2025: $2.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 52.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42888/000004288826000081/ggg-20251226.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 53.3% 

- FY2017: 53.8% 

- FY2018: 53.4% 

- FY2019: 52.2% 

- FY2020: 51.8% 

- FY2021: 52.0% 

- FY2022: 49.3% 

- FY2023: 52.9% 

- FY2024: 53.1% 

- FY2025: 52.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are USD 2.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42888/000004288826000081/ggg-20251226.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 2236604000; grossProfit 1173183000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GGG.US: Graco Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, mix, control, dispense, and spray fluid and powder materials in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Contractor, Industrial and Expansion Markets. The Contractor segment provides sprayers to apply paint to walls and other structures; two-component proportioning systems to spray polyurethane foam and polyurea coatings; viscous coatings to roofs, markings on roads, parking lots, athletic fields, and floors; and high-performance volumetric and gravimetric dispense, mixing, and shaking equipment. The Industrial segment designs and manufactures liquid finishing and advanced fluid dispensing equipment; pumps to move chemicals, petroleum, food, and other fluids; and systems, components, and accessories for the automatic lubrication of bearings, gears, and generators; supplies equipment for equipment maintenance and vehicle servicing applications, as well as make powder finishing products and complete powder finishing systems. The Expansion Markets segment manufactures pumps for use in the semiconductor industry; high pressure and ultra-high-pressure valves used in the oil and natural gas industry; and environmental monitoring and remediation equipment that is used to conduct ground water sampling, ground water remediation, and for landfill liquid and gas management. Graco Inc. was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 52.5% to 53.1% during 2023–25; it earns 42.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 52.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 53.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42888/000004288826000081/ggg-20251226.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 52.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1284637906019396],[2017,0.45727681680028337],[2018,0.6005472731786118],[2019,0.5135639481321962],[2020,0.44872733012887833],[2021,0.48134998492124864],[2022,0.3646382318447695],[2023,0.3939366080479804],[2024,0.3199074273232565],[2025,0.33015296596596055]]; median 0.4213319690884294. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 423.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 42113000; owner earnings 46851000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 40194000; owner earnings 257801000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 6100000; upkeep 47754000; owner earnings 341054000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01788573070540149.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 127953000; owner earnings 264811000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 709203.1599802524; upkeep 70628796.84001975; owner earnings 315156203.15998024. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002250322706230362.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 65519609.43517409; upkeep 68046390.5648259; owner earnings 431144609.4351741. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15196666733467643.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 35221004.35693109; upkeep 165939995.6430689; owner earnings 360702004.3569311. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0976457128917928.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 13929438.131708235; upkeep 170845561.86829177; owner earnings 408265438.13170826. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03411858274227596.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 106737000; owner earnings 466096000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42888/000004288826000081/ggg-20251226.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 45669000; owner earnings 583603000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,73434000],[2017,80477000],[2018,88845000],[2019,106443000],[2020,116983000],[2021,127110000],[2022,142125000],[2023,158323000],[2024,172088000],[2025,183352000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42888/000004288826000081/ggg-20251226.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 423108000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GGG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.755 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17190750524401371. Price 81.78; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.9691051858547057 → FY2025 3.4488030303925683. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $24.97 per share

- 2016-11: $27.08 per share

- 2016-12: $27.70 per share

- 2017-01: $29.86 per share

- 2017-02: $30.25 per share

- 2017-03: $31.38 per share

- 2017-04: $35.95 per share

- 2017-05: $36.62 per share

- 2017-06: $36.43 per share

- 2017-07: $38.68 per share

- 2017-08: $38.50 per share

- 2017-09: $41.23 per share

- 2017-10: $43.93 per share

- 2017-11: $43.86 per share

- 2017-12: $45.22 per share

- 2018-01: $46.80 per share

- 2018-02: $44.35 per share

- 2018-03: $45.72 per share

- 2018-04: $43.99 per share

- 2018-05: $45.40 per share

- 2018-06: $45.22 per share

- 2018-07: $46.14 per share

- 2018-08: $47.01 per share

- 2018-09: $46.34 per share

- 2018-10: $40.63 per share

- 2018-11: $44.05 per share

- 2018-12: $41.85 per share

- 2019-01: $43.33 per share

- 2019-02: $46.96 per share

- 2019-03: $49.52 per share

- 2019-04: $51.25 per share

- 2019-05: $47.22 per share

- 2019-06: $50.18 per share

- 2019-07: $48.08 per share

- 2019-08: $45.57 per share

- 2019-09: $46.04 per share

- 2019-10: $45.20 per share

- 2019-11: $48.31 per share

- 2019-12: $52.00 per share

- 2020-01: $53.15 per share

- 2020-02: $49.32 per share

- 2020-03: $48.73 per share

- 2020-04: $44.66 per share

- 2020-05: $48.21 per share

- 2020-06: $47.99 per share

- 2020-07: $53.24 per share

- 2020-08: $58.02 per share

- 2020-09: $61.35 per share

- 2020-10: $61.90 per share

- 2020-11: $67.74 per share

- 2020-12: $72.35 per share

- 2021-01: $68.94 per share

- 2021-02: $69.35 per share

- 2021-03: $71.62 per share

- 2021-04: $76.80 per share

- 2021-05: $75.72 per share

- 2021-06: $75.70 per share

- 2021-07: $78.08 per share

- 2021-08: $78.42 per share

- 2021-09: $69.97 per share

- 2021-10: $75.18 per share

- 2021-11: $72.89 per share

- 2021-12: $80.62 per share

- 2022-01: $72.56 per share

- 2022-02: $72.09 per share

- 2022-03: $69.72 per share

- 2022-04: $62.02 per share

- 2022-05: $63.30 per share

- 2022-06: $59.41 per share

- 2022-07: $67.16 per share

- 2022-08: $63.84 per share

- 2022-09: $59.95 per share

- 2022-10: $69.58 per share

- 2022-11: $69.97 per share

- 2022-12: $67.26 per share

- 2023-01: $68.32 per share

- 2023-02: $69.54 per share

- 2023-03: $73.01 per share

- 2023-04: $79.29 per share

- 2023-05: $76.49 per share

- 2023-06: $86.35 per share

- 2023-07: $79.33 per share

- 2023-08: $78.94 per share

- 2023-09: $72.88 per share

- 2023-10: $74.35 per share

- 2023-11: $80.78 per share

- 2023-12: $86.76 per share

- 2024-01: $85.30 per share

- 2024-02: $91.26 per share

- 2024-03: $93.46 per share

- 2024-04: $80.20 per share

- 2024-05: $80.75 per share

- 2024-06: $79.28 per share

- 2024-07: $85.05 per share

- 2024-08: $83.35 per share

- 2024-09: $87.51 per share

- 2024-10: $81.45 per share

- 2024-11: $91.08 per share

- 2024-12: $84.29 per share

- 2025-01: $84.17 per share

- 2025-02: $87.07 per share

- 2025-03: $83.51 per share

- 2025-04: $81.61 per share

- 2025-05: $84.66 per share

- 2025-06: $85.97 per share

- 2025-07: $83.98 per share

- 2025-08: $85.39 per share

- 2025-09: $84.96 per share

- 2025-10: $81.77 per share

- 2025-11: $82.44 per share

- 2025-12: $81.97 per share

- 2026-01: $87.33 per share

- 2026-02: $93.92 per share

- 2026-03: $84.65 per share

- 2026-04: $80.27 per share

- 2026-05: $75.45 per share

- 2026-06: $75.61 per share

- 2026-07: $79.38 per share

- 2026-08: $77.43 per share

- 2026-09: $76.84 per share

- 2026-10: $81.78 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $16.20 per share, central $18.41 per share, high $21.36 per share

- FY2017: low $22.25 per share, central $30.38 per share, high $35.56 per share

- FY2018: low $26.73 per share, central $38.73 per share, high $45.42 per share

- FY2019: low $25.44 per share, central $36.61 per share, high $42.84 per share

- FY2020: low $26.36 per share, central $37.53 per share, high $43.76 per share

- FY2021: low $34.93 per share, central $49.42 per share, high $57.50 per share

- FY2022: low $36.10 per share, central $51.87 per share, high $60.67 per share

- FY2023: low $37.30 per share, central $53.09 per share, high $61.90 per share

- FY2024: low $37.67 per share, central $53.26 per share, high $61.96 per share

- FY2025: low $42.98 per share, central $58.24 per share, high $67.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42888/000004288826000081/ggg-20251226.htm); period 2025-12-26, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.