# Gilead Sciences (GILD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GILD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:46.802Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $157.37 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $60.79 per share, central $68.89 per share, high $79.67 per share. Buy at or below the central value $68.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:46.802Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.0% at the stated quote. About 6.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.58×

- FY2017: 0.54×

- FY2018: 0.37×

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.36×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.40×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 79.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 78.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: 37.8%

- FY2018: 39.6%

- FY2019: 23.0%

- FY2020: 7.8%

- FY2021: 22.6%

- FY2022: 18.1%

- FY2023: 23.6%

- FY2024: 4.4%

- FY2025: 34.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.19×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $30B

- Net income, five-year total: $25B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.24×

- FY2022: 1.30×

- FY2023: 0.59×

- FY2024: 5.68×

- FY2025: 1.26×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 39.6% vs 23.6%

- Per-share earnings: 9.94 to 4.50 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: $59B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$4.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -9.4%

- Per-share value change: -$5.44

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $9.94

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.50

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.15

- Average buyback yield: 2.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $35B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $55B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 39.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $9.94

- FY2017: $3.51

- FY2018: $4.17

- FY2019: $4.22

- FY2020: $0.10

- FY2021: $4.93

- FY2022: $3.64

- FY2023: $4.50

- FY2024: $0.38

- FY2025: $6.78

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.2%

- FY2017: -10.3%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -6.1%

- FY2020: -11.8%

- FY2021: -7.6%

- FY2022: -7.1%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: -17.5%

- FY2025: -2.6%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.5% a year for ten years · "Gilead also raised its full-year product-sales guidance following the quarter." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +2.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:49.228Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: Gilead Dives After Its Bread-And-Butter Drug Misses Sales Forecasts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/17bde134-bd39-3558-ace8-08b112ded6cd/gilead-dives-after-its.html))

- 2025-10-31: GILD Q3 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates, HIV and Livdelzi Sales Grow ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gild-q3-earnings-sales-beat-142000428.html))

- 2025-11-07: Gilead fails late-stage trial for Trodelvy in first-line breast cancer ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4518583-gilead-trodelvy-trial-fails-breast-cancer?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-11: Gilead expects 6% of HIV sales growth in 2026, with $800m Yeztugo target ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-expects-6-hiv-sales-131115397.html))

- 2026-04-16: Gilead Sciences' HIV Drug Shows Weaker-Than-Expected Persistence Nine Months After Launch, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/gilead-sciences-apos-hiv-drug-150414231.html))

- 2026-08-05: GILD Q2 Earnings Beat on HIV and Trodelvy Growth, Product Sales Outlook Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/gild-q2-earnings-beat-hiv-152200360.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $30B 

- FY2017: $26B 

- FY2018: $22B 

- FY2019: $22B 

- FY2020: $25B 

- FY2021: $27B 

- FY2022: $27B 

- FY2023: $27B 

- FY2024: $29B 

- FY2025: $29B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 78.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 86.0% 

- FY2017: 83.3% 

- FY2018: 78.1% 

- FY2019: 79.2% 

- FY2020: 81.5% 

- FY2021: 75.8% 

- FY2022: 79.3% 

- FY2024: 78.3% 

- FY2025: 78.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers general; annual sales are USD 29.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 29442000000; grossProfit 23208000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GILD.US: Gilead Sciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines in the areas of unmet medical need in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company provides Biktarvy, Descovy, Genvoya, Odefsey, Sunlenca, Symtuza, and YeztugoFor the treatment of HIV-1 infection in patients. It also provides Epclusa, Livdelzi, and Vemlidy to treat chronic hepatitis C virus, primary biliary cholangitis, and chronic hepatitis B virus; Tecartus, a T-cell therapy for the treatment of adult patients; Trodelvy, an injection for intravenous use; and Yescarta, a suspension for intravenous infusion, is a CAR T-cell therapy for the treatment of adult patients. Further, it provides AmBisome, for the treatment of serious invasive fungal infections; and Veklury for the treatment of COVID-19. Additionally, the company engages in the development of various immunotherapies for patients with cancer and other incurable diseases. The company has collaboration agreements with Shenzhen Pregene Biopharma Co., Ltd.; Abingworth; Arcus Biosciences, Inc.; Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp.; Janssen Sciences Ireland Unlimited Company; Japan Tobacco, Inc.; Everest Medicines; Merck & Co, Inc.; Tentarix Biotherapeutics Inc.; and Assembly Biosciences, Inc. It also has research collaboration, option, and license agreement with Merus N.V. for the discovery of novel dual tumor-associated antigens (TAA) targeting trispecific antibodies. The company has a collaboration with Terray Therapeutics, Inc. to discover and develop small molecule therapies; and LEO Pharma to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the small molecule oral STAT6 program. The company has a partnership with Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) to accelerate access to lenacapavir for HIV prevention as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) across all PAHO member states in Latin America and the Caribbean. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 78.3% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 23.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 78.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 78.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.0627898189043117],[2017,0.3775694016039482],[2018,0.39583093096558086],[2019,0.22987827765563837],[2020,0.0776270241727294],[2021,0.22573876196672202],[2022,0.18118989352954398],[2023,0.2358724644873147],[2024,0.04410586098059194],[2025,0.3421148112392099]]; median 0.23287537107147654. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.9 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 748000000; owner earnings 13911000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 590000000; owner earnings 5324000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 924000000; owner earnings 5960000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 825000000; owner earnings 5965000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 650000000; owner earnings 953000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 579000000; owner earnings 7696000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 728000000; owner earnings 5967000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 585000000; owner earnings 3317000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 523000000; owner earnings 2724000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 563000000; owner earnings 10707000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,2455000000],[2017,2731000000],[2018,2971000000],[2019,3222000000],[2020,3449000000],[2021,3605000000],[2022,3709000000],[2023,3809000000],[2024,3918000000],[2025,4003000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 1922000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GILD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.11 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We face risks in our clinical trials" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); We face risks in our clinical trials

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 3.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.153045258229911. Price 157.37; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 12.136094674556213 → FY2025 8.531474103585657. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $73.63 per share

- 2016-11: $73.70 per share

- 2016-12: $71.61 per share

- 2017-01: $72.45 per share

- 2017-02: $70.48 per share

- 2017-03: $67.92 per share

- 2017-04: $68.55 per share

- 2017-05: $64.89 per share

- 2017-06: $70.78 per share

- 2017-07: $76.09 per share

- 2017-08: $83.71 per share

- 2017-09: $81.02 per share

- 2017-10: $74.96 per share

- 2017-11: $74.78 per share

- 2017-12: $71.64 per share

- 2018-01: $83.80 per share

- 2018-02: $78.73 per share

- 2018-03: $75.39 per share

- 2018-04: $72.23 per share

- 2018-05: $67.40 per share

- 2018-06: $70.84 per share

- 2018-07: $77.83 per share

- 2018-08: $75.73 per share

- 2018-09: $77.21 per share

- 2018-10: $68.18 per share

- 2018-11: $71.94 per share

- 2018-12: $62.55 per share

- 2019-01: $70.01 per share

- 2019-02: $65.02 per share

- 2019-03: $65.01 per share

- 2019-04: $65.04 per share

- 2019-05: $62.25 per share

- 2019-06: $67.56 per share

- 2019-07: $65.52 per share

- 2019-08: $63.54 per share

- 2019-09: $63.38 per share

- 2019-10: $63.71 per share

- 2019-11: $67.24 per share

- 2019-12: $64.98 per share

- 2020-01: $63.20 per share

- 2020-02: $69.36 per share

- 2020-03: $74.76 per share

- 2020-04: $84.00 per share

- 2020-05: $77.83 per share

- 2020-06: $76.94 per share

- 2020-07: $69.53 per share

- 2020-08: $66.75 per share

- 2020-09: $63.19 per share

- 2020-10: $58.15 per share

- 2020-11: $60.67 per share

- 2020-12: $58.26 per share

- 2021-01: $65.60 per share

- 2021-02: $61.40 per share

- 2021-03: $64.63 per share

- 2021-04: $63.47 per share

- 2021-05: $66.11 per share

- 2021-06: $68.86 per share

- 2021-07: $68.29 per share

- 2021-08: $72.78 per share

- 2021-09: $69.85 per share

- 2021-10: $64.88 per share

- 2021-11: $68.93 per share

- 2021-12: $72.61 per share

- 2022-01: $68.68 per share

- 2022-02: $60.40 per share

- 2022-03: $59.45 per share

- 2022-04: $59.34 per share

- 2022-05: $64.85 per share

- 2022-06: $61.81 per share

- 2022-07: $59.75 per share

- 2022-08: $63.47 per share

- 2022-09: $61.69 per share

- 2022-10: $78.46 per share

- 2022-11: $87.83 per share

- 2022-12: $85.85 per share

- 2023-01: $83.94 per share

- 2023-02: $80.53 per share

- 2023-03: $82.97 per share

- 2023-04: $82.21 per share

- 2023-05: $76.94 per share

- 2023-06: $77.07 per share

- 2023-07: $76.14 per share

- 2023-08: $76.48 per share

- 2023-09: $74.94 per share

- 2023-10: $78.54 per share

- 2023-11: $76.60 per share

- 2023-12: $81.01 per share

- 2024-01: $78.26 per share

- 2024-02: $72.10 per share

- 2024-03: $73.25 per share

- 2024-04: $65.20 per share

- 2024-05: $64.27 per share

- 2024-06: $68.61 per share

- 2024-07: $76.06 per share

- 2024-08: $79.00 per share

- 2024-09: $83.84 per share

- 2024-10: $88.82 per share

- 2024-11: $92.58 per share

- 2024-12: $92.37 per share

- 2025-01: $97.20 per share

- 2025-02: $114.31 per share

- 2025-03: $112.05 per share

- 2025-04: $106.54 per share

- 2025-05: $110.08 per share

- 2025-06: $110.87 per share

- 2025-07: $112.29 per share

- 2025-08: $112.97 per share

- 2025-09: $111.00 per share

- 2025-10: $119.79 per share

- 2025-11: $125.84 per share

- 2025-12: $122.74 per share

- 2026-01: $141.95 per share

- 2026-02: $148.95 per share

- 2026-03: $139.37 per share

- 2026-04: $130.84 per share

- 2026-05: $134.43 per share

- 2026-06: $126.34 per share

- 2026-07: $130.21 per share

- 2026-08: $146.34 per share

- 2026-09: $149.05 per share

- 2026-10: $147.92 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $162.66 per share, central $222.34 per share, high $257.09 per share

- FY2017: low $150.50 per share, central $210.86 per share, high $244.52 per share

- FY2018: low $110.96 per share, central $123.31 per share, high $139.75 per share

- FY2019: low $72.71 per share, central $80.26 per share, high $90.31 per share

- FY2020: low $62.25 per share, central $70.08 per share, high $80.50 per share

- FY2021: low $67.57 per share, central $76.24 per share, high $87.77 per share

- FY2022: low $67.41 per share, central $76.07 per share, high $87.59 per share

- FY2023: low $56.87 per share, central $63.98 per share, high $73.44 per share

- FY2024: low $39.39 per share, central $43.62 per share, high $49.24 per share

- FY2025: low $63.28 per share, central $71.01 per share, high $81.30 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.