# Glencore (GLEN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GLEN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:44.204Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 574.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 437.03 per share, central GBX 497.28 per share, high GBX 577.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 497.28 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:44.204Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.0% at the stated quote. About 9.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.96×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.01×

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.01×

- FY2020: -0.01×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 3.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 2.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.5%

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 4.6%

- FY2019: 2.1%

- FY2020: -1.7%

- FY2021: 7.0%

- FY2022: 19.9%

- FY2023: 8.2%

- FY2024: 4.5%

- FY2025: 2.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.31×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $33B

- Net income, five-year total: $25B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 79.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.48×

- FY2022: 1.15×

- FY2023: 1.28×

- FY2024: 0.62×

- FY2025: 4.27×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.6% vs 4.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.09 to 0.03 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $28B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -13.1%

- Per-share value change: -$0.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.09

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.03

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.11

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $366M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $34B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.09

- FY2017: $0.40

- FY2018: $0.24

- FY2019: -$0.03

- FY2020: -$0.15

- FY2021: $0.37

- FY2022: $1.32

- FY2023: $0.34

- FY2024: -$0.13

- FY2025: $0.03

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -4.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 2.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 17.41×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.8%

- FY2017: 0.7%

- FY2018: -6.3%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -3.9%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: 2.8%

- FY2023: -5.5%

- FY2024: -9.0%

- FY2025: -4.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.7% a year for ten years · "Oil Price Rally Boosts Glencore’s First-Half Profit" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +7.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.588Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Glencore sees $1 billion savings by 2026 after review of assets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glencore-sees-1-billion-savings-062909776.html))

- 2025-08-06: Glencore’s Net Loss Widens on Low Coal Prices and Copper Output ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glencore-net-loss-widens-low-110000615.html))

- 2025-10-29: Glencore Trims Top End of Copper Production Guidance After Output Declines ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/066bce43-668a-340e-9836-e12f93e8b3ce/glencore-trims-top-end-of.html))

- 2026-02-19: Glencore Backs Copper Growth And Cash Returns After Ending Rio Tinto Talks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glencore-backs-copper-growth-cash-181217076.html))

- 2026-08-05: Oil Price Rally Boosts Glencore’s First-Half Profit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/oil-price-rally-boosts-glencore-113000309.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: $153B 

- FY2017: $205B 

- FY2018: $220B 

- FY2019: $215B 

- FY2020: $142B 

- FY2021: $204B 

- FY2022: $256B 

- FY2023: $218B 

- FY2024: $231B 

- FY2025: $248B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 2.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: 2.1% 

- FY2017: 3.8% 

- FY2018: 4.1% 

- FY2019: 2.2% 

- FY2020: 2.6% 

- FY2021: 6.1% 

- FY2022: 10.6% 

- FY2023: 5.0% 

- FY2024: 2.7% 

- FY2025: 2.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 247.5 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 247535000000; grossProfit 5489811096; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GLEN.LSE: Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. It engages in the production and marketing of copper, cobalt, lead, nickel, zinc, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, aluminum, alumina, and iron ore; and coal, crude oil, refined products, and natural gas, as well as oil exploration and production and refining and distribution. The company is also involved in marketing and distributing physical commodities sourced from third party producers to industrial consumers, including the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. In addition, the company provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 2.2% to 5% during 2023–25; it earns 4.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 2.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 2.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.01492309084457671],[2017,0.04604337957714977],[2018,0.045984433694117005],[2019,0.02078268407793462],[2020,-0.01738107805676856],[2021,0.07044745971769491],[2022,0.19949519739439153],[2023,0.08209582577132486],[2024,0.04493387702663073],[2025,0.02579865114007002]]; median 0.04545915536037387. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3048000000; owner earnings 3963000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3586000000; owner earnings 7589000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4687000000; owner earnings 5046000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 4712000000; owner earnings 1715600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 3569000000; owner earnings 894800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3618000000; owner earnings 7367400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 4177000000; owner earnings 19854200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 4484000000; owner earnings 5475400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 6056455162; owner earnings 1583766109. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,998000000],[2017,998000000],[2018,2836000000],[2019,2710000000],[2020,2115000000],[2021,2115000000],[2022,4832000000],[2023,6450000000],[2024,1580000000],[2025,1217008522]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 2033792765 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 13.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GLEN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.739 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Further details concerning independence of the Non-Executive Directors are contained on page 86.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); Remuneration Committee Membership and experience All committee members were considered independent on their appointment to the Board. Further details concerning independence of the Non-Executive Directors are contained on page 86. The members of the committee provide a useful balance of skills, experience and perspectives to provide the critical analysis required in carrying out the committee’s function.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.025620574733888568. Price 574.1; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.3393142086072802 → FY2025 0.13125036331222742. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 250.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 279.30 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 277.35 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 326.45 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 322.05 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 313.15 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 303.65 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 285.10 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 287.20 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 334.15 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 359.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 342.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 363.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 339.60 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 390.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 403.70 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 386.35 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 353.80 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 350.70 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 372.05 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 362.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 334.50 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 313.55 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 331.70 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 318.85 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 290.15 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 291.35 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 309.45 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 303.95 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 317.95 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 304.35 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 254.65 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 273.35 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 266.45 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 236.95 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 244.75 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 232.65 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 243.90 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 235.35 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 222.50 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 193.26 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 123.80 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 147.10 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 149.82 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 171.22 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 174.64 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 169.18 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 160.96 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 155.90 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 211.85 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 233.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 246.40 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 290.70 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 284.25 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 295.20 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 321.45 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 309.45 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 323.55 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 327.40 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 351.85 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 365.25 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 357.10 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 374.95 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 383.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 442.15 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 500.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 497.30 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 522.10 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 445.10 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 461.85 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 473.30 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 478.15 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 499.50 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 563.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 552.40 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 541.20 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 495.35 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 464.60 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 469.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 411.45 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 444.50 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 473.55 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 421.45 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 469.90 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 435.15 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 441.80 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 472.10 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 420.45 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 375.15 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 435.30 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 467.70 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 480.75 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 451.10 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 429.80 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 400.80 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 427.70 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 406.30 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 379.95 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 353.40 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 350.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 319.15 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 280.30 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 244.40 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 283.40 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 283.60 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 304.75 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 292.20 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 341.60 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 364.45 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 360.80 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 406.55 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 499.25 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 534.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 565.50 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 567.80 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 567.80 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 513.80 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 543.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 595.60 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 555.20 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 582.90 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2018: low GBX 291.56 per share, central GBX 331.77 per share, high GBX 385.28 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 297.84 per share, central GBX 338.90 per share, high GBX 393.57 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 205.19 per share, central GBX 233.48 per share, high GBX 271.14 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 288.85 per share, central GBX 328.68 per share, high GBX 381.69 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 370.12 per share, central GBX 421.15 per share, high GBX 489.08 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 362.04 per share, central GBX 411.96 per share, high GBX 478.41 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 385.89 per share, central GBX 439.09 per share, high GBX 509.92 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 424.67 per share, central GBX 483.23 per share, high GBX 561.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:29.566Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138002658CPO9NBH955/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31/reports/2138002658CPO9NBH955-2025-12-31.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.