# Grupo México (GMEXICOB.MX)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GMEXICOB.MX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: MXN. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: MXN 239.57 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low MXN 103.81 per share, central MXN 111.07 per share, high MXN 119.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value MXN 111.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 13.3%). required return 13.3% a year (MX 10-year bond 9.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.36×

- FY2018: 0.36×

- FY2019: 0.37×

- FY2020: 0.40×

- FY2021: 0.51×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.41×

- FY2024: 0.42×

- FY2025: 0.48×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 43.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 44.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 14.4%

- FY2018: 14.1%

- FY2019: 14.8%

- FY2020: 17.6%

- FY2021: 31.5%

- FY2022: 23.7%

- FY2023: 19.5%

- FY2024: 21.1%

- FY2025: 29.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $18B

- Net income, five-year total: $19B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 80.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.88×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.4% vs 21.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.20 to 0.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $45B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $11B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 14.6%

- Per-share value change: $0.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.20

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.46

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.25

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.20

- FY2018: $0.16

- FY2019: $0.29

- FY2020: $0.30

- FY2021: $0.50

- FY2022: $0.42

- FY2023: $0.43

- FY2024: $0.46

- FY2025: $0.63

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.35×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.17×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.1%

- FY2018: -8.2%

- FY2019: -3.7%

- FY2020: -6.9%

- FY2021: -8.4%

- FY2022: -6.1%

- FY2023: -7.9%

- FY2024: -6.5%

- FY2025: -2.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.4% a year for ten years · sales +12.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.219Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +12.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: $9.8B 

- FY2018: $10B 

- FY2019: $11B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $15B 

- FY2022: $14B 

- FY2023: $14B 

- FY2024: $16B 

- FY2025: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 49.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 38.7% 

- FY2018: 38.9% 

- FY2019: 39.4% 

- FY2020: 41.9% 

- FY2021: 54.9% 

- FY2022: 45.1% 

- FY2023: 43.1% 

- FY2024: 44.6% 

- FY2025: 49.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 18.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2025: revenue 18176711000; grossProfit 9016289000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GMEXICOB.MX: Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. produces copper worldwide. It operates through Mining, Transportation, and Infrastructure divisions. The Mining division is involved in the operation of underground and open pit mines, smelters, refineries, and other plants. This division also provides copper, silver, molybdenum, zinc, sulfuric acid, gold, and selenium products. The Transportation division offers general and intermodal freight services by rail, passenger services, as well as auxiliary management services for terminals and intra-terminal hauls; and ground transportation and warehousing. The Infrastructure division engages in building infrastructure and industrial plants, and ocean and land drilling; provision of engineering services, drilling services for oil and water exploration, and energy production services; construction of infrastructure works, project engineering services; operation and highway conservation; real estate project development, and construction and administration of shopping centers. In addition, it is involved in operation of cycle plants and wind farm; generation of energy; and oil transportation. Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.1% to 49.6% during 2023–25; it earns 19.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 49.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.14440095494709876],[2018,0.1411967264590718],[2019,0.1478350162679465],[2020,0.17560532260728892],[2021,0.31454348022146533],[2022,0.23714411842010005],[2023,0.1947745580893776],[2024,0.21091811508136177],[2025,0.2939078900399802]]; median 0.1947745580893776. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 14% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 80% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1499800000; owner earnings 1128035000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1686280000; owner earnings 1830826000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2019: growth capex 76959000; upkeep 1048919000; owner earnings 2133436800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03607278172008658.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2020: growth capex 89914000; upkeep 1024779000; owner earnings 2230887000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04030414808100993.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2021: growth capex 246514000; upkeep 1115392000; owner earnings 3809627800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06470815862903982.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1501700000; owner earnings 2880381405.829917. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2023: growth capex 414273000; upkeep 1255856000; owner earnings 3304574118.899163. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12536350679221708.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2024: growth capex 319995000; upkeep 1446007000; owner earnings 3501087285.893318. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09139874955112746.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/4GE.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); FY2025: growth capex 671747000; upkeep 1334122000; owner earnings 4791773444.268977. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1401875543184159.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); Incremental return on capital 0.8000443727145248, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,524973000],[2018,1083418000],[2019,1283053000],[2020,1059423000],[2021,2358626000],[2022,1940948000],[2023,2069400000],[2024,2223769000],[2025,2567740000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 65.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GMEXICOB.MX SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 65.40899999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:40.976Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18040803826838203. Price 239.57; FX 18.44337882700111; discount 0.13252; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (MXN per share)

- 2016-10: MXN 46.57 per share

- 2016-11: MXN 56.30 per share

- 2016-12: MXN 56.43 per share

- 2017-01: MXN 62.54 per share

- 2017-02: MXN 60.94 per share

- 2017-03: MXN 56.28 per share

- 2017-04: MXN 55.37 per share

- 2017-05: MXN 50.50 per share

- 2017-06: MXN 51.07 per share

- 2017-07: MXN 57.99 per share

- 2017-08: MXN 58.94 per share

- 2017-09: MXN 55.69 per share

- 2017-10: MXN 62.34 per share

- 2017-11: MXN 58.33 per share

- 2017-12: MXN 64.91 per share

- 2018-01: MXN 65.98 per share

- 2018-02: MXN 64.35 per share

- 2018-03: MXN 60.55 per share

- 2018-04: MXN 62.17 per share

- 2018-05: MXN 49.52 per share

- 2018-06: MXN 56.39 per share

- 2018-07: MXN 58.60 per share

- 2018-08: MXN 56.02 per share

- 2018-09: MXN 53.95 per share

- 2018-10: MXN 46.87 per share

- 2018-11: MXN 41.98 per share

- 2018-12: MXN 40.44 per share

- 2019-01: MXN 45.79 per share

- 2019-02: MXN 48.29 per share

- 2019-03: MXN 53.36 per share

- 2019-04: MXN 55.59 per share

- 2019-05: MXN 48.91 per share

- 2019-06: MXN 50.97 per share

- 2019-07: MXN 46.89 per share

- 2019-08: MXN 46.16 per share

- 2019-09: MXN 46.14 per share

- 2019-10: MXN 50.67 per share

- 2019-11: MXN 51.08 per share

- 2019-12: MXN 51.86 per share

- 2020-01: MXN 50.46 per share

- 2020-02: MXN 46.42 per share

- 2020-03: MXN 43.74 per share

- 2020-04: MXN 51.40 per share

- 2020-05: MXN 47.48 per share

- 2020-06: MXN 53.43 per share

- 2020-07: MXN 56.21 per share

- 2020-08: MXN 58.40 per share

- 2020-09: MXN 56.25 per share

- 2020-10: MXN 60.25 per share

- 2020-11: MXN 73.34 per share

- 2020-12: MXN 84.12 per share

- 2021-01: MXN 87.84 per share

- 2021-02: MXN 99.33 per share

- 2021-03: MXN 107.46 per share

- 2021-04: MXN 91.57 per share

- 2021-05: MXN 97.14 per share

- 2021-06: MXN 93.76 per share

- 2021-07: MXN 91.21 per share

- 2021-08: MXN 93.55 per share

- 2021-09: MXN 82.39 per share

- 2021-10: MXN 90.32 per share

- 2021-11: MXN 89.72 per share

- 2021-12: MXN 89.29 per share

- 2022-01: MXN 88.59 per share

- 2022-02: MXN 105.07 per share

- 2022-03: MXN 119.00 per share

- 2022-04: MXN 95.52 per share

- 2022-05: MXN 97.21 per share

- 2022-06: MXN 83.27 per share

- 2022-07: MXN 80.60 per share

- 2022-08: MXN 76.28 per share

- 2022-09: MXN 68.12 per share

- 2022-10: MXN 71.83 per share

- 2022-11: MXN 78.68 per share

- 2022-12: MXN 68.41 per share

- 2023-01: MXN 83.74 per share

- 2023-02: MXN 82.09 per share

- 2023-03: MXN 85.33 per share

- 2023-04: MXN 88.41 per share

- 2023-05: MXN 78.51 per share

- 2023-06: MXN 82.41 per share

- 2023-07: MXN 87.04 per share

- 2023-08: MXN 81.21 per share

- 2023-09: MXN 82.49 per share

- 2023-10: MXN 73.53 per share

- 2023-11: MXN 79.61 per share

- 2023-12: MXN 94.18 per share

- 2024-01: MXN 88.81 per share

- 2024-02: MXN 82.74 per share

- 2024-03: MXN 98.13 per share

- 2024-04: MXN 105.85 per share

- 2024-05: MXN 104.88 per share

- 2024-06: MXN 98.41 per share

- 2024-07: MXN 105.00 per share

- 2024-08: MXN 100.78 per share

- 2024-09: MXN 109.77 per share

- 2024-10: MXN 104.69 per share

- 2024-11: MXN 98.28 per share

- 2024-12: MXN 98.93 per share

- 2025-01: MXN 101.59 per share

- 2025-02: MXN 96.63 per share

- 2025-03: MXN 102.32 per share

- 2025-04: MXN 101.90 per share

- 2025-05: MXN 106.34 per share

- 2025-06: MXN 113.66 per share

- 2025-07: MXN 118.09 per share

- 2025-08: MXN 122.35 per share

- 2025-09: MXN 159.72 per share

- 2025-10: MXN 160.62 per share

- 2025-11: MXN 159.50 per share

- 2025-12: MXN 170.03 per share

- 2026-01: MXN 194.05 per share

- 2026-02: MXN 219.03 per share

- 2026-03: MXN 191.92 per share

- 2026-04: MXN 191.20 per share

- 2026-05: MXN 215.24 per share

- 2026-06: MXN 198.24 per share

- 2026-07: MXN 207.72 per share

- 2026-08: MXN 232.59 per share

- 2026-09: MXN 225.65 per share

- 2026-10: MXN 244.94 per share

## Annual estimated value (MXN per share)

- FY2021: low MXN 70.00 per share, central MXN 75.14 per share, high MXN 81.39 per share

- FY2022: low MXN 64.09 per share, central MXN 69.01 per share, high MXN 74.98 per share

- FY2023: low MXN 67.94 per share, central MXN 73.11 per share, high MXN 79.40 per share

- FY2024: low MXN 80.68 per share, central MXN 86.76 per share, high MXN 94.13 per share

- FY2025: low MXN 97.61 per share, central MXN 104.87 per share, high MXN 113.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.