# Goodman Group (GMG.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GMG.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 26.37 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 13.12 per share, central AUD 14.65 per share, high AUD 16.70 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 14.65 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.34×

- FY2018: 0.51×

- FY2019: 0.57×

- FY2020: 0.37×

- FY2021: 0.26×

- FY2022: 0.33×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.29×

- FY2026: 0.51×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 67.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 69.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 7.5%

- FY2018: 13.0%

- FY2019: 13.5%

- FY2020: 3.7%

- FY2021: 3.0%

- FY2022: 2.6%

- FY2023: 1.7%

- FY2024: 2.0%

- FY2025: 2.4%

- FY2026: 4.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 9.3B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 9.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -22.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.0% vs 2.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.59 to 0.80 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Market cap gain: AUD 50B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 12B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 3.8%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.21

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.59

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.80

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 1.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 17B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.42

- FY2018: AUD 0.59

- FY2019: AUD 0.87

- FY2020: AUD 0.80

- FY2021: AUD 1.21

- FY2022: AUD 1.79

- FY2023: AUD 0.82

- FY2024: AUD -0.05

- FY2025: AUD 0.80

- FY2026: AUD 1.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 2.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.69×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.69×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.5%

- FY2018: -0.5%

- FY2019: 5.4%

- FY2020: 2.1%

- FY2021: 7.1%

- FY2022: 12.0%

- FY2023: 1.1%

- FY2024: -5.4%

- FY2025: 2.2%

- FY2026: 2.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 30% since Nov 2024 · sales +20.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.280Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +20.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 2.0B 

- FY2018: AUD 2.5B 

- FY2019: AUD 2.9B 

- FY2020: AUD 1.5B 

- FY2021: AUD 1.9B 

- FY2022: AUD 2.1B 

- FY2023: AUD 2.0B 

- FY2024: AUD 1.9B 

- FY2025: AUD 2.2B 

- FY2026: AUD 2.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 69.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 51.0% 

- FY2018: 66.1% 

- FY2019: 73.1% 

- FY2020: 66.4% 

- FY2021: 50.8% 

- FY2022: 70.5% 

- FY2023: 67.5% 

- FY2024: 71.1% 

- FY2025: 64.2% 

- FY2026: 69.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are AUD 2.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2026: revenue 2656600000; grossProfit 1857200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GMG.AU: Goodman Group is a provider of essential infrastructure. It owns, develops and manages high quality, sustainable logistics properties and data centres in major global cities, that are critical to the digital economy. Goodman has operations in key consumer markets across Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the Americas. Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics Limited, is the largest property group on the Australian Securities Exchange, a top 20 entity by market capitalisation, and one of the largest listed specialist investment managers of industrial property globally The Group's property portfolio includes logistics and distribution centres, warehouses, light industrial, multi-storey industrial, business parks and data centres. Goodman takes a long-term view, investing significantly alongside its capital partners in its investment management platform and concentrating the portfolio where it can create the most value for customers and investors. Goodman Group was established on 5th April 2002 and was incorporated in Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 64.2% to 71.1% during 2024–26; it earns 3.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 71.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 64.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 69.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.07481507493713768],[2018,0.12968059938742452],[2019,0.1353169537758381],[2020,0.03716176298734984],[2021,0.030497152370698007],[2022,0.02603436579652764],[2023,0.01724695769616882],[2024,0.0195699939736226],[2025,0.024361279814497584],[2026,0.04809157999008048]]; median 0.03382945767902393. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.6% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 5200000; owner earnings 781400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 5400000; owner earnings 1099000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1700000; owner earnings 1632800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2500000; owner earnings 1514740000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 7000000; owner earnings 2309100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5900000; owner earnings 3411080000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 13000000; owner earnings 1550060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 6400000; owner earnings 1669700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); FY2026: growth capex 15717394.047447518; upkeep 23782605.952552482; owner earnings 2760977394.0474477. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.005692692044974206.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,461100000],[2018,488400000],[2019,528700000],[2020,546300000],[2021,551400000],[2022,557200000],[2023,562100000],[2024,567400000],[2025,571600000],[2026,611400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GMG.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.6069999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:07.430Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1180092940238876. Price 26.37; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.6800930894090308 → FY2026 1.3197733174198156. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 6.79 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 6.68 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 7.13 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 6.92 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 7.55 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 7.74 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 8.11 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 8.50 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 7.87 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 7.96 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 8.29 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 8.24 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 8.36 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 8.69 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 8.42 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 8.09 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 8.21 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 8.43 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 9.07 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 9.34 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 9.62 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 9.63 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 10.70 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 10.36 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 10.38 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 10.25 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 10.63 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 11.66 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 12.80 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 13.35 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 13.16 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 13.40 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 15.03 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 14.81 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 14.52 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 14.18 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 14.39 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 14.82 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 13.37 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 14.89 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 14.98 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 12.10 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 13.15 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 15.37 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 14.85 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 16.93 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 18.31 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 17.94 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 18.40 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 18.68 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 18.91 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 17.68 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 16.56 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 18.12 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 18.91 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 19.43 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 21.17 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 22.64 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 23.13 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 21.68 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 21.90 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 24.69 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 26.50 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 23.19 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 22.23 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 22.89 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 23.98 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 20.55 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 17.84 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 20.70 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 19.67 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 15.78 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 17.00 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 19.12 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 17.36 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 19.97 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 19.86 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 18.79 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 19.31 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 19.63 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 20.07 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 20.54 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 23.36 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 21.45 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 20.74 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 22.75 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 25.30 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 25.60 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 29.90 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 33.81 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 31.69 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 33.52 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 34.75 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 35.10 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 33.40 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 36.99 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 36.64 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 37.91 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 35.64 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 36.45 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 31.31 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 28.43 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 29.98 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 32.92 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 34.24 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 35.18 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 34.35 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 32.78 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 33.03 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 29.68 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 30.98 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 30.73 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 28.94 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 25.54 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 29.58 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 31.67 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 31.13 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 29.77 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 27.73 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 27.18 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 26.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 7.70 per share, central AUD 8.61 per share, high AUD 9.82 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 9.64 per share, central AUD 10.79 per share, high AUD 12.33 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 12.65 per share, central AUD 17.72 per share, high AUD 20.67 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 5.88 per share, central AUD 6.56 per share, high AUD 7.47 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 6.60 per share, central AUD 7.45 per share, high AUD 8.57 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 12.44 per share, central AUD 14.08 per share, high AUD 16.26 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 12.49 per share, central AUD 14.50 per share, high AUD 16.75 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 12.23 per share, central AUD 14.34 per share, high AUD 16.55 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 11.01 per share, central AUD 12.27 per share, high AUD 13.94 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 12.88 per share, central AUD 14.39 per share, high AUD 16.40 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:52.711Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.